RE: remaining drivage31 Oct 2019 14:31
You don't often see maths calculations on here LaserBrain - so well done for that.
Galantas does not use a rotary drill - it uses a drill and blast technique and then muck out. I.e. drill holes to plant the explosives, explode and then use a motorised shovel to extract the rock. Whilst all levels are slightly different due to the inclination of the strike on both the horizontal and vertical axis we can draw some conclusions from the 1072. i.e. once the level is reached it was 58m to reach the vein and then the vein went on for a further 40m, so 98m in total that took nearly 4 months to complete. We are now close to the intersection of the 5th level but that still leaves the 98m and 4 months to go and we do not know what other levels there will be. This all ties into Stoping commencing in Q1/Q2 of next year.
Something has now changed - for me we still do not know what that is. I may be wrong but the requirement for increased use of explosives, whilst beneficial now, is not absolutely necessary until Stoping commences. So why not continue as is until all levels have been developed? So yes, we do not have the full story.
But that is probably where I would draw the line. Roland may not be the best marketeer but he is an honest and honourable guy IMO. I do believe that he is working to resolve this situation and the reason for it is most likely out of his control. Just like all of the other set backs he did not throw in the towel but worked to resolve them. And, again IMO, it will be resolved.
If we look at the situation as it stands we have a partially developed mine in limbo - who ever said mining was easy ! The Gold is still in the ground and there is a lot of it. By my calculations the first 5 years of mining should give earnings of over £30m with at least another £300m to follow over the life of the mine (taking into account 50% of what is expected to be found). That should get a JV as a minimum.
Personally I would prefer a sale. Orion Mine Finance bought Dalradian for £315m. It's total Gold Oz were 6.1m of which only 33,000 Oz were measured. It has no mine and no planning permission - we all know how difficult that is to get in NI !! Dalradian (Curraghinalt) is quite close to Galantas (Cavanacaw), potentially makes Ore transportable by truck - certainly not ideal but if I was Orion Mine Finance I would be thinking that I have a 315m investment in something where I might not be able to build a mill, tailings pond etc etc. Galantas is a good back up plan for them. Sure they will try to get in on the cheap and to seize and opportunity, but that only works if Galantas don't realise the cards they hold - and they do. To value Galantas at less than £20m from a purchase perspective is unlikely.
My conclusion is this - we are in frustrating and difficult times, I am personally not happy in the slightest but we have a great asset that will not go to waste. I am sitting and holding and waiting - the Gold will come out of the ground.