Member Info for TotalTrader

Already answered Minor in that a deal suits both companies - not really sure what your point is. JLP are already cleaning the tailings with Copper and the main contaminent of lead has already been RNS'd as delayed - I presume the Zambian Governemnt was involved.

Also watch the ************* video for GLR when Tom Winnifrith asks "Could Jubillee Walk", it's at 22.50 in.

Well done Minor - stating what we all know i.e. the costs of processing Zinc are high and thus processing our Zinc at 11% on its own does not make sense. Thus GLR ore at greater than 14% is good for us because it aids into a profitable mix and also good for GLR. However, the timescales are very much in JLP's hands.
Have you ever questioned why 11% Zinc is not profitable but 14% - 22% is. makes you think that the costs might be high doesn't it. If the costs are high that means the amount left over for both JLP and GLR is not great.
So of course JLP will enforce their right to Star Zinc. Without it they will just carry on processing copper until the price of Zinc and Vanadium recover.

Why is that Minor?

So a 22% dilution of sorts to come then. Let's hope some of that is baked into the price , although with Market Makers anything is possible.

Thanks Jammer - will do.

Hi Jammer - yes I am aware of that, however I was mainly referring to costs and not revenue. Revenue is the known figure based upon LME prices but we are all a little in the dark in terms of costs. We all assume of course that revenue's (metal prices) will increase and naturally there is no guarantee of that so we can only use what LME quotes. It is the costs that I am trying to get to the bottom of.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420716300824

An interesting article for those with the patience to read it. A little out of date so allow for inflation but it shows the processing costs for Cu & Zn for mainly labour and energy. Typical costs for Zn are 500 Eur / with inflation maybe now $600/T and Cu cathode for Zambia at 150 Eur / T, again with inflation approx 180 $ /T. this is for metal and not concentrate. Again take with a large question mark because it will exclude, depreciation costs, Mgt O/H costs, sales costs etc there is also a comment on Sulphuric acid and its high costs. This will be interesting for JLP on an intercompany basis because it makes it's own sulphuric acid and will thus add margin within its process in total.
The interesting point to note is that Cu is much lower than Zn and yet the Cu price is much higher, thus leaving higher margins on Cu.
Simple calcs show from a purely processing perspective:
Copper cathode $5,200/T less $180 /T = $5,020.
Taking JLP's miniumum 15% smelter margin = $780 and that still leaves a healthy $4,240/T.
JLP will be mixing the 3rd party Ore with their own so we will also be getting margin from our own Ore. I estimate it will be 60% 3rd party and 40% ours to begin with. In conclusion there is plenty of margin for all concerned in Copper. One can expect that Cobalt is the same. As yet we don't know the full processing rates so it is difficult to work out our total contribution from Copper but we have the ramp up numbers so we can work out some provisional figures.

Zinc Processing:
Zn price $2,000/T Zn Conc = $1,700.
Zn Conc - Processing costs = $1,700 - $600 = $1,100.
JLP min 15% processing margin = $255.
Remaining amount = $845/T.
Again 3rd party ore will be mixed with our Ore, Correct me if I am wrong but I believe our average grade is 11% and 3rd party will be not less than 14% but I suspect higher. Working of 18% of 3rd part Ore that would give us 38% of the balance and the 3rd party (GLR) 62%. i.e.
JLP - $321
GLR - $524
Current processing rate to be 8500T of zinc Conc.

So we can still make money from Zinc but it would appear that the potential to make money from Copper and Cobalt is much more.

Very, very quick calcs so please feel free to pull them apart - I am sure you all know by know I have no emotional attachment to the numbers i put out so please be brutal if you think they are wrong !!
My provisio's to the above would be:
1) In all my years of industrial and mining experience I always find that the initial costs are too low, there are always additional costs that come to bite us. We certainly know that from PGM's and Chrome.
2) Because the final Tonnes of metal above are quite low then JLP may require more than 15% to cover the Sable overheads.
3) Still does not explain why GLR's numbers for costs on Zinc from their own RNS's are significantly higher than mine - I will email CB on this point.

ps The link shows no Zn refineries in

It will Sumo - just needs some consistency of earnings, a good portfolio of multiple earnings streams and less reliance upon South Africa - I would say it is coming together nicely. We can but hope .....

Hi Jonah,
See below - it's £10 for all video's but worth it.
video.-------.com/companies. Inset share phrophets (no space).
Just watched the XTR one and it is interesting that CB feels he can get the Kalengwa copper tailings in Zambia up and running in 6 months with $6m of infrastructure (double that timescale most likely for CB's optimism). Clearly that is with JLP and then using Sable for refining. Seems like all of CB's Zambian opportunities (BZT, XTR & GLR) revolve around JLP and mainly revolve around copper tailings and refining. Shows why JLP are keen to get copper and cobalt running. In other words, JLP will gain with local tailings projects like its PGM projects and then also gain with the refinery.
It's starting to become increasingly difficult to see JLP's earnings / share being anything less than 4 times last years and then growing. Once we have some firmed up copper numbers and earnings figures I will plug it all into a projection.

Yes all of the last ones TC about GAL.

You are correct JLPpositive. I have just watched the GLR & JLP video confs from the ************* on line conference over the weekend to see if anything has changed. The only thing that has changed from the JLP / GLR perspective is that the zinc circuit has been delayed. Sure CB talks about renting out JLP's Zinc circuit but if it is finished then JLP will use it. The enforce that people talk about is in JLP's favour, JLP have the rights to Star Zinc material and are enforcing that right to ensure that it is there when needed and that CB does not try and sell it elsewhere. All in CB's interview at the weekend as well. I note that CB does not rule out a dilution at GLR and it "depends upon the timescales" of other events. In other words it is coming.
What is interesting is that LC talks about Copper in Zambia dwarfing other JMG earnings in the coming years , so this is clearly the focus. He also talks of Tjate as much more than a dead asset with interest from the Far East - so not completely dead but probably some way off.
Nothing much that we don't know about but worth a listen.

Something going on - no idea what but I am not going to complain about it !!

My understanding, from putting the puzzle of CB and other communications together is that Zinc is very expensive to process due to the acid costs. Thus the higher grade zinc that goes in makes the process more efficient and less costly. This is where Star Zinc comes in - their high grade ore is useful.
However, due to the costs it requires a good Zn price to make it worthwhile. AMD's number for GLR worked on $2,700 per tonne but i think it works somewhere north of £2,250 per tonne although not really exciting for either party at this price. One grey area is we don't really know how JLP are working out their costs, clearly many of the overheads will be shared against several products.
My view is that LC wants to show a consistent EPS increase at JLP over the coming years. Copper and Cobalt allow a significant increase adding to what is being achieved with PGM's and Chrome so this will be the priority whilst continuing to build and commission the Zn circuit. Eventually adding Pb and more importantly Vanadium at times of strong prices. We do not know what the true capacity of the refinery will be and when it is at capacity I would expect stockpiling of the individual metals / concentrates, selling them into the market when the prices are good.
My view is that Copper and Cobalt will be the earners in the short term adding Zn mainly in 2021 depending upon market prices.

Enjoy your evening Minor.

Evening Phoenix - My point would be if the prospect was so good why let it go so cheaply. The answer is the amount of money and time it will take to develop it.
Anyway - have a good evening all - from not posting for a while I have been quite busy on here today !!

Minor - I still own 12m shares in GLR down from 23m (over 3 accounts) from earlier this week, so I have skin in the game. I need not weep. I presume you still own your shares from the Concordia days at 10p plus so still a little way for you to go yet - I have a few of those myself.
However, I do not let that cloud my judgement on what Star Zinc is worth or what another one of Colin's purchases mean. GLR will not get cash flow from any Zinc at the earliest before the end of the year and at this price of Zinc there is little to no margin in it for either company so it would not surprise me to see it delayed further.
I do not post on the GLR board my opinions because they are very different to the valuations quoted by the people on there. My view is that the rise is far too early and too strong taking into account that very little progress has been achieved in 6 months. GLR's time will come but for me it is not now which means that lots of people are going to get burned on the current rise.

Come on Minor behave now - you know what sort of deal that is for GLR and it's a typical Bird cash guzzler. Next you will be telling us that Concordia is back on the cards !

Typical CB buying more crap - he just can’t help himself. Did exactly the same at Bzt earlier in the week. Next will be the dilution to pay for his next great exploration.

Thanks Groucho - so they share most of the same circuit until the end when they are seperated and then go for refining into metal. I know that copper with be plate metal but not sure if cobalt is conc or metal.

I think it maybe a border issue TC. Zambia appears to be still operating - I remember reading an article last week where I think it was Glencore who stopped Ops in Zambia and the ministers were not at all happy and this would concur with why JLP are still operational in the country but not working on the zinc circuit - that and the points below.
Does anyone have any information on any pure zinc refineries, it would be interested to see what profits they are making if any with the low zinc prices. It's been 2016 since it was in this range and one wonders with the economic downturn how long it will take to get back up to reasonable levels.