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Same thread but had to change the title !! The issue is quite simply that people do not know how to use a calculator, the numbers are there in plain site for everyone to see, adjusted for the current Zn price, acid price and $/£ exchange of course. With that one can work out the earnings for both GLR and JLP adjusted for Zn Conc and then Zn Metal. We know the timescales as well or certainly a strong indication of them - I don't know how many times LC has re-iterated them and from that it is possible to work out when GLR get cash flow and when JLP will make a profit from the deal (not yet a deal but it looks a nailed on certainty). Whilst I may disagree with people on their numbers and timescales -JLP is a very good investment at this price and GLR is a very good investment at its price. I will continue adding both - GLR will be a shorter term gain than JLP in my opinion purely because of the news that will come out to propel it forward, GLR should increase by many multiples once the SML and offtake RNS's are released. Whereas JLP's short term future is generally known and we just await the implementation of what is already known. From an XTR perspective, I agree with the comments that it is currently pretty irrelevant to JLP and a number of years before JLP would have any involvement if the specific situation for that involvement were to arise, which is by no means a certainty.

Nice blue day - best price I could buy at this morning was a small buy at 0.598. MM's would take a £5,000 sell at 0.58 so looking good for upward movement.

Personally i do not think that we will ever know what the mix between toll processing and Intl sales is - as 34 points out we only know that x + y = $51/T, but without further details is is impossible to know the mix. Couple that with likely loss of DCM FC for most, if not all of H1 then it becomes even harder to calculate. The costs per Tonne that Jammer talks about are the ones that I have in one of my models, but again these are only really applicable to a plant that is running efficiently and at volume which will soon the case.
What we can see though is that the CrConc earnings are increasing and whilst this continues in a tight market then that is good news. I think we have to assume that if JLP are processing low earnings 3rd party Ore then they are doing it for a reason, either:
a) They are contractually obliged to do it.
b) Extra volume brings the total cost per unit down which makes it worthwhile.
c) It's used for overhead recovery - another way of saying b) above.
d) It's part of a long term strategy to gain future PGM revenue.
e) It's part of a long term strategy to gain new clients and their tailings - we do not know who we are processing 3rd party Ore from and it may very well be to gain a foothold into these clients.
Either way, and I go back to my previous point, the earnings are increasing and thus their strategy is working OK. Sure it can be tweaked maybe in the future to reduce the level of 3rd party processing but that is for the future. For now, I would say that JLP's approach is working.

At least 18 months for XTR to do anything at Eureka IMO. For it to be worthwhile transporting to Kabwe it would have to be exceptionally high grade > 20g/T Cu Eq. However I would not be surprised to see a JLP involvement in some part if Eureka gets going.
Toll processing at Kabwe is not an issue for me. I think the goal is to make Kabwe an exceptionally low cost facility per unit produced and if toll processing Cu or any other metal merely covers the overheads then that is a good deal because it just puts more profit to the bottom line for Zn, V and Pb.
Leon for me has a clear strategy that he is slowly delivering on - we are already starting to see this feed through to the bottom line with increasing profits - a trend set to continue a pace in the next 2 years.

I personally would not be so critical of JLP with their updates. They are providing an operations update and in no way are they expected to give the detail of every parts of their business. Sure us PI's have to delve deep to find out the information sometimes and add in the details from sub-notes - for me that is pretty normal in any company. It can be frustrating for us Pi's but we know what we are getting into when we invest.
I have looked deeper into the Chrome revenue and it appears that we have a steady slide in the revenue per Tonne:
Q2 18 = £112/T
Q3 18 = £73/T
Q4 18 = £59/T
Q1 19 is not known since I cannot not find the tonnage, but we know it was less than 75,000T in the quarter and my guess is in the 50's so maybe a price of £52-55/T.
H1/19 = £40/T which implies that Q2 19 was potentially in the low 30's.
Our earnings are increasing but this is down to the increased tonnage.
I have to admit that even taking into account 3rd party processing it has left me rather stumped !! But it could be a long term strategy as put forward by 34 Deg south that you take a lower Chrome revenue to have a much higher PGM revenue and earnings in the future.

Volumes are really thin is the main problem - even after yesterday which was a pretty good update, although very much as expected, apart from the expediting of the copper circuit. It needs to get back to the 10 million plus volumes on a regular basis with the occasional 20-40 million day. Got to admit I can only really see that happening when Kabwe gets going and the numbers get very interesting. Until then we are back to the 3.0 to 3.6 range.

Very strange one - maybe the Chrome revenue is just down to delays in shipping and invoicing against production - I guess we will see in the next 6 monthly round-up.
PGM - just checked SLP (thanks for the pointer) and we are pretty much the same as them. I guess it is as simple as a concentrate and smelter charge before the net PGM Oz's are calculated and thus our paymnet / revenue is calculated.

Hi Gavster, I don't think we are anywhere near that run rate. This is still development Gold so incredibly low volumes really until stoping starts. Stoping was not planned until late Q4/Q1 next year from the previous RNS's, the extension of the veins may very well have delayed that so I think we are still some way off. That is where I would like to get an update - when does stoping start ??? Surely it is not too much to ask !! Investors get twitchy when the information coming out is sketchy.

As you know I am big fan of Galantas and so Visitor I would like to strongly disagree with you, unfortuntaly I cannot because a lot of what you say is correct. This share needs confidence and to get confidence it needs something to work with i.e. forecasts. Gold is booming, lets make the most of it with some really good positive but realistic RNS's. Tell us what the optimisations are of the machinery - what will that mean for increased output when stoping starts, when will stoping start?

We have seen from the video last week that this is a proper mine, not a pie in the sky of most on Aim. That needs to be worked with coupled with the high gold price. Let's hope the next RNS stating that funds have been raised gives a bit more detail and a more upbeat RNS !!

Well there is the answer to questions 1 & 2 !!

I am sure that I am missing something obvious but can anyone answer the 2 questions below on why our revenue appears to be low - my model has always taken into account these numbers since they are the numbers that JLP have consistently used and the numbers that par up with the Shard Capital report.
1) Hernic - 100% revenue to JLP - revenue per Oz is £671. Why is it so low when we know that PGM's are circa $1300/Oz or £1030??
2) Windsor (Platchro) - 100% revenue to JLP - revenue per Tonne of Chrome concentrate is £40/t. Again, why is this so low when Chrome concentrate sells for £110 - £140 per tonne???
Anybody have the answers???

Addition to my note below - and of course the Kabwe costs that are not capitalised and have hit this periods P&L. I am sure it wont be too difficult to come to a £0.9m number.

The costs at Hernic look high at a first glance but accounting for the £0.60m in backdated employee costs and the one off upgrade costs of the grinding circuit of £0.13m (not sure why this was not capitalised) then the costs come in at approximtaley $333 / Oz. So not a big difference from the $319/Oz of H2/18. Project revenue per Oz has gone up quite considerably as well which would be expected, although this is always only a guesstimate because Oz's mined and Oz's delivered so not equal to Oz's invoiced.
As the day goes on I will put all the numbers into my JLP fiancial model and see how it looks. My forecast for revenue was spot on (£100k difference) but my revenue was £1.5m down so I need to understand why. Clearly £0.6m of that was down to the first point I raised so another £0.9m to find !! Some will be down to Winsdor costs which are nearly impossible to know.

Very diffiicult to know what are buys and sells with the tight spread. I bought 4 small junks today from 4 accounts and they all show as sells. What is clear now is that the JLP deal is all but done so it is only a matter of time before GLR announce their news about an offtake agreement subject to the SML.
Going to be an interesting few weeks.

Very much doubt it is a hangover from the placing or BMR selling - the numbers are too low, more likely just a PI selling. The spread has narrowed from earlier as well so some of the decline is artificial. Just the MM's finding volume on thin trading IMO. It needs news which could be anytime or indeed anytime in the next few weeks !! I never get too concerned over what happens in a period of weeks / months, this is a very short term gain in mining terms i.e. 12 months from now. The question that nobody knows the answer to is - does it spike in 12 months or 12 days?? Overall, the cards look very well stacked in GLR's favour. A good hold with a steady top up at these levels.

That answers that one then Gavster - so not much to worry about on that front. The key items for me now are:
1) How long does it take for the company to become cash flow positive - Q3 or Q4?
2) Do we have sufficient cash to last that long?
3) When does stoping commence?
4) At what volumes (Oz's) is the initial stoping?
5) How long is the ramp up period to hit a run rate of 25,000 Oz per year?
6) What is the plan to exceed 25,000 Oz?
7) When will the first really decent / profitable Quarterly update be published - Q1/Q2 next year?

I agree, no real effect on the actual shipments if they go from NI. I have never asked where the concentrate is shipped from - Gavster do you know it is definitely from NI and not from ROI? If we resort to WTO terms then this may imply an import tariff (not sure on this, I cannot find any data) but it will most likely be very small circa 5% - gold is not something countries are likely to have argued about ! The USA & Canada will be 2 countries we will sign a trade deal with pretty quickly in my view. In terms of currencies one can never predict where we will be in 12-18 months time but at the moment there is a definite currency gain as the £ weakens. The gold price also gives us more $’s so it’s brewing a perfect little storm at the moment. I view anything above $1250/oz for gold and below $1.35 for the £ as a pure benefit as far as profit forecasts are concerned.
For me the MM’s will have to get the share price moving at some point to gather interest and increase volumes, i still think they are sat on over 1m shares from the large sell of a few weeks ago. The way to do this is to spike it up by 50% on release of really good news so it hits the top of the daily charts and thus gathers interest. Whether that happens this year or maybe after a good quarterly result next year is anybodies guess - but it is coming !!

I know what you mean Gavster, in a world in which AIM CEO's are more like marketing people spouting anything to get to the next fundraise, Roland's more genuine, down to earth approach with no fanfare is probably viewed as very pessimistic. A marketing chap would not go a miss but I am happy to keep the costs down for the moment certainly until stoping commences.

Good video - hopefully might make a few people realise there is something going on at Galantas !!

I was waiting for that one to come out Jupiter - it's always proactive !