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The deison to Val Ore is completely odd I agree. To sell to a company almost as small as JAN with no funds makes little to no sense. If the deal went through at £5-8m, ok not great but at least it could be stomached but at half of that and before the BFS - you have to question the rationale. It's either part of a master plan or just another salary for a board member and it's usually the latter !!

The point here though is that the Concert Party own about 60% of JAN of which BM owns 20% of JAN. So JAN sold at a higher multiple benefits them alot more than an extra $100k a year in salary - that's the bit that does not make sence. In these cases I always go back to the raw numbers. My calculation of the new JAN NPV before the sale and before adding in Vanadium was $300m over a 20-25 year LOM. Sounds big numbers but in essence it's not great at all. It equates to about £8m of net profit per year, fine with the current number of shares but not so good with the level of dilution that would be required for a debt/equity funding. You end up with an EPS of less than 1p per share at best. OK so lets sell and concentrate on Vanadium - fine, but the price was poor. OK the markets are crap so we sell cheap to fund the Vanadium asset.

JAN have already started an NI compliant study - news to me - but OK they have started. The deal with ValOre gives £150k up front with another £435k in 100 days if the deal goes through and another £580k maybe at the end of Nov and another at the end of Feb '20. JAN want the NI study completed by the Sept quarter. I don't know how much drilling has been done but the last update was 4 holes and 300m. This site is 1km x 2km x 200m deep. 300m's of drilling is pi**ing in the ocean. Let's ignore the 200m depth since the resource is high grade at surface and drill to only 60m. How many holes at 60m over that area is required for an NI compliant resource?? No idea but has to be circa 200 with over 10,000m of drilling. So let's put 4 rigs on there doing 2,500m each , that's 6 months to get full assays and about £375k per rig to get to NI status or £1.1m in total and I think I am being conservative in that.

That's Sept quarter gone and most likley end of Q4 or Q1 2020. If it is delayed then the money from ValOre just about covers it, if it is not then ValOre does not cover it. Unless of course JAN are only doing the NI compliance over part of the resource to begin with.

So my summary would be - absoltely shocking communication by the board preceded by miscommunication to begin with about moving this all the way to at least a BFS. The Vanadium asset could be good and hugely valuable but it is not known. The XRF sampling matches reasonably well with the limited drilling so lets hope so. Even if we get a NI resource we have to go through all the motions and expense to get to a BFS again.

There is a big but to all of this of course and that is that the board is very strategic (I know !)

Indeed so - in other words an in ground valuation for the Vanadium asset before year end - maybe not released until early 2020 and the drilling should be fully funded.

Every cloud has a silver lining !

I put the NPV value at about $300m with a significant upside. That would have resulted in a surge in the share price thus increasing the value of the company. Strangely enough the higher the value in the company the harder it is to sell. This way Vale Ore will get to issue the BFS, they will get the increase in their SP which will naturally have an effect on JAN.

Of course their is an element of a member on the board - this could be BM which will mean he will take an additional salary - slightly cynical of course.

Let's face it this is not a great deal by any accounts but equally it is not a disaster. Jan were 5 years away from production with this asset, anything can happen in that time including dilution after dilution. I would have been much happier to see an offer with a proviso of a further payment later on but I guess Vale will say that you have X% of the company so there is your payment.

The Vanadium asset will be easier to sell but might take another 12-18 months to get to that level at which point it will be worth a damn site more that £4m but until the numbers are firmed up It's impossible to work out a value.

A disappointing day for pi's that's for sure and it is a case of jam tomorrow. But with a MCap not much higher than the to be cash position of the company and a promising Vanadium assett - it certainly is no disaster.

Jez, thanks for your concern - but I read many people's advice - I am thankfully experienced enough not to take most.

All AIM companies come with massive risk, hence the large rewards that also come with them. I had already worked out JAN's new NPV based upon the information available and I expected a spike upon the RNS from which point I would sell and wait for the inevitable dilution and SP fall. Of course this was unexpected, but that's just the way it goes.

On the plus side we can forget about PGM's where the tailings guys are growing rapidly with a cost base significantly below what we could ever have expected and concentrate on Vanadium - completely in flux at the moment but likely to settle later this year. On a Vanadium only basis the asset will attract interest from the Chinese but also the US and Canadian big boys need more of this metal. Sure the asset needs firming up but at least we have some money to do it.

You are right about the markets not funding projects - it's not just PGM's it's across the board when it comes to the UK. That's just the times we are in. But as with all cycles it will change.

I am not saying that the RNS is rosy, far from it. I would have much preferred to have waited for the spike following the BFS RNS which would have suited my personal investing agenda.

Correction to my previous post - 33% of Val Ore before they dilute to purchase PB. Not worked out the numbers but probably about 10-15%.

So initially I thought - that is a terrible deal. But then you look at it and maybe not.

Jan still have an interest in 33% of the PGM side of PB, so if the project does come to fruition then they have profits without costs. They also have a 33% interest in any of the other projects that Val Ore has.

The have retained the Vanadium side which would have been the most profitable and have money to spend on firming up the resource and such do not need a dilution. Vanadium for those that don't know is heading for a potential deficit.

What would have been the flip side - a pretty good BFS, sp rise, followed by a large dilution and then an sp fall.

So not an RNS I was at all expecting and one that I initially thought was terrible - but it might turn out to be a reasonably good deal.

Good work Gavster - that answers the question on concentrate grades and thus the value per tonne.

I would hope that the annualised concentrate by year end would be greater than 11,000 Oz. the mill will be working on 3 shifts by then which I guess means 24 hours a day 6-7 days a week give or take. Supply of Ore is never the issue in this type of mine it is always milling capacity. I wopuld personally like to see it heading towards the high teens but I might be a touch optimistic on that front. I would hope we would see a 25,000 Oz run rate by mid next year - Galantas say sometime in 2020.

The investment to get it from 25,000 Oz to 50,000 Oz should not be too great. Most likely front end crushing and grinding rather than floatation tanks - I doubt it will be more than £3-5m.

One can only see Gold getting stronger as the run to safety is likely to continue with the USA/China trade war. So £25m of revenue on 30,000 Oz is a distict possibility in 2021 with a good set of 2020 results as well. At those levels there is some pretty hefty profits and cash generation to be ploughed into additional exploration and of course dividends.

Thanks Gavster - i scanned through some of the old RNS's myself today. The concentrate bags from 2011 had a gold equivalent (Gold + Silver + Lead) of 3.57 Oz per Tonne with an original grade of 4.73g AU / tonne. Our current grade is higher, but assuming the same and a concentrate price of 85% of the gold price then 100T equates to £282k. As I said this could be much higher due to our higher grades.

I doubt Galantas will be able to release the exact amount yet. Concentrate bags are usually sample tested at both ends i.e. Galantas and the customer before a concensus is reached. Hopefully we will see another RNS once this is known. News flow feeds the share price and also interest in the share.

At the old grades we need about 2400T of concentrate to be around the numbers in the last broker report for year end., or considerably less if the grades are higher. Stoping on 3 levels will feed the mill and this bring on the extra shifts.

Good to get some activity on this board !!

Tamer - depends upon many factors, unlikely to be valued at higher than $25/Oz at such an early stage but could be as low as $5/Oz. So much depends upon the PEA and ultimtaley BFS to work out a true value. But remember, this is AIM so it will overshoot, pullback, undershoot and them be subject to a placing !

Hi Gavster and welcome aboard.

Were the grades from 2010/11 in an RNS? My understanding is that the value per bag (depending upon the final testing results) was about £1,300 to £2,000 per bag so potentially upto £200k including the final 25T.

A good start considering the early state of the mine. I am not sure how of that will go to paying off the £1.6m loan. the loan does not need paying off until Dec 2020 if I remember correctly so no rush to pay it off and money in the bank is more valuable.

In terms of mined Oz I think we will see circa 30,000 hit next year and then with a small investment an increase to 50,000 Oz maybe 12-18 months later. By then there will be money in the bank to undertake the underground drilling Roland talks about which should increase the resource to extend the LOM. I fully expect to see a 20+ year mine developed @ 50,000 plus Oz's per year.

So there we go - revenue will be forthcoming in Q2.

A little unclear if it is 3 x 75T shipped or 3 shipments totalling 75T with a further 25T to follow. But either way revenue is on its way and ramping up. Interesting to see the value per bag.

Touch and go whether Q2 is profitable - probably a little too soon but Q3 should be.

Strange that Fulmar, because on the JLP board you have stated the same but say that it was not through research and that you were merely copying a post.

If you wish to know what CB and other execs take as fees , salaries etc then a quick read of the accounts gives you all the information you require. Equally if you want to know what UK directorships are held by individuals go onto companies house and type in a company you know e.g. JLP, then click on CB - a list of his companies will follow.

When you invest in AIM you invest as much into the people as you do the company. I always research both. If their track record is rubbish, it’s no surprise that their current companies are very high risk. Of course the flip side of the coin is true as well.

Hi Moneyhawk, my apologies. Just read your post again and yes you are talking about FY as opposed to calander year. For this FY year it is not much different with EPS of 0.06p for the 6 months to 31st Dec '18. My model is running on a CY basis (purely for simplicity) and that is an error so I will run a CY and FY model.

On the plus side it does mean that I will now show higher EPS for each reporting year - every cloud !!

I think better than that Moneyhawk. The Q1 figures differed from my model by less than £100k on earnings so I am confident that my JLP model is pretty accurate. I am forecasting Q2 earnings of £4.6m and then Q3 & Q4 of £11.4m combined giving a total earnings for the year of just over £19m. I think Shards forecast is light for this year but pretty close for 2020/21.

Before we get too excited though we will have rather heavy post earnings costs so i am forecsating an EPS of between 0.14 to 0.20 for this year. 2020 should be 3-4 times higher and then it's 2021 when Kabwe's first full year really kicks in and adds significantly to the EPS along with most likely Platchro & Hernic fine Chrome and PGM from DCM.Plus by then we will have further upside from other projects that are currently on the negotiating table with the majors.

I see the progress in this Q1 update as being bang on where JLP said we would be and the forecast for Q2 is also where they said they would be.

I am sure that over the next 24 months we will have some ebbs and flows with the SP as news comes and goes. But the trend is clear, it is going up with most likely a 3p strong support level.I see the value based puerly on known fundamentals as between 16 - 20p in that time. But knowing how AIM massively under and overshoots plus the steady update of projects we could well see significant upside on that.

JLP just need to get confirmation on the Kabwe go ahead from the Zambian Government which I would be suprised if it anything more than a formality but one that could always be delayed given the nature of the country.

In my 25+ years of investing and over 10 of those concentrating on mining and metals, when you look at the risk/reward characteristics of JLP it is now at the stage of being an exceptional opportunity.

The need for funding dimishes Max the longer the company produces postive earnings and increased FCF. In the early days debt is not available so equity is the only solution. Once a few projects are up and running and the concept is more proven and JLP are stable then it moves to debt and equity. Then it moves to just debt and finally to being self funded.

JLP will be in a postion shortly to fund all future opportunities through debt at a very attractive interest rate and then move to self funding. If you look at the Shard report on page 21 it predicts positive FCF of £12m in 2020 and £26m in 2021. My numbers are actually higher than this, but that aside it means the following - if no further major project comes on stream in 2019 or that project has a delayed payment until 2020 then JLP will be able to fund them itself.

As CB says - "what a position to be in" - if I ever use that phrase again plesae block me !!!

In terms of a takeover - JLP would be mad to even consider it at the moment in my view. The value from the company will be generated in the next 2-3 years not just from existing projects but from the long line of projects that will be coming from discussions with the majors and also the prime position JLP find themselves in within Zambia.

Shares in GLR now showing as over 404m - that means CB got his placing away. Suprised we did not see an RNS to say that it had been fully subscribed - must be one next week. Makes CB's interview on Proactive all the more confusing when he says he needs funds.

Well found Busby - I think that presentation - and what a presentation - answers all of the questions that we have been debating here and on the GLR BB over the last couple of weeks.

We will be producing both a zinc concentrate and then a zinc metal. Feed rate 36,000T per annum, 8,000T of Zn recovered, Zn grade = 22%, welcome aboard Star Zinc / Kashitu !! Numbers conservative for Kabwe, not surprising when the refineries capacity is so much larger than 36,000T / annum. I guess the negotiations will detail how much of the 8,000T is attributable to JLP and how much to GLR.

Revenue in Q1 pushing revenue of the last 6 months i.e. £8m which means Platchro fine Chrome is adding about £4m / qtr revenue and LC states that its earnings are equivalent to hernic i.e. about £2m / qtr on a full running basis (Note Hernics Q1 will be lower than this due to the slow start).

Platchro PGM on track in May and will add the same PGM Oz's as Hernic on a full annualised basis.

Very difficult to see anything but earnings of £15-£20m this year assuming that Kabwe adds nothing until next year.

Of all the Investor Show presentations I have seen LC comes across so incredibly well assured, knowledgeable, confident and very easy to invest in.

Thw £2m was if he was going to buy plant but in his interview he says that the mining and transport are going out to bids so that is not an issue - hopefully!!
The main cost is that more drilling is required to JORC the resource, not sure if that is to complete the information on more of Star Zinc / Kashitu or because the original drills were not analysed in the correct JORC way - either way he needs to drill, then come up with a mine plan then an SML - all take time and cost money.
Zeb - I too was suprised that he said the ore would only be supplied for 12-14 months until JLP had proven up their process. Kind of goes against what he has said previously - but hey this is CB and interpreting what he says is a full time job !! I would still think / hope that JLP would need the higher grade ore for longer.
Looks like this process is going a bit upside down i.e. agree an offtake deal to get some funding to prove up the resource and get an SML - but as long as it happens then who cares. I still think he is trying to tap JLP for the money up front or at least part of it but that will be tough to pull off.

You could be right and the placing has not been taken up which is why CB is talking about funds - i.e. he has not got the funds from the placing.
I did think it strange to release the RNS yesterday about negotiations commencing. Who issues an RNS just about negotiations - there is no need to do so. Maybe it was to try and drum up some interest.

Agree Strider. I think it is because if you listen to the Proactive Interview CB pretty much states that he needs more funding - about 10:50 in onwards. He talks about needing a budget and convincing the market - no need to convince the market if no money is needed !!

he also states that he is looking at bids for the mining and transport so these will be subbed and won't need money.

This is where I get frustrated with CB, he has only just undertaken a fundraise with the intention of drilling Star to get a JORC compliant resourse and already he's talking of more money.

Appreciate anybody elses comments in case I am interpreting his words incorrectly.