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Good progress in today's RNS showing the multi level approach to the Kearney Vein and the route commencement to the Joshua Vein. And look at those intersection gradings 10.3g/t over 3m including a 27.42g/t over 1m - in Gold terms that is a serious WOW !!

It has not escaped my notice either that the spread has shortned considerably over the last few weeks - it wasn't so long ago when we were in the death grip of the MM's 20% spread and now it's just over 4% - that clearly indicates they have reclassified this share and are open for business.

When Dalradian was bought by Orion Mine Finnace recently for £315m it had inferred resources of just over 6m Oz of Gold - no planning permission and no Mine. We have over 521,000 Oz inferred with a full local resource potential of between 2-3m Oz as well as potential in the other mining licenses owned. Equally we have planning permission, a mine and are currently mining resources.Doesn't sound too bad to me !

NickD - I had to double check my numbers which all looked good until I realised I was playing about with a rights issue earlier and had adjusted my shares in issue !! All corrected now.

EPS for 2018 will be circa 3.46p.

I use a $75Kg FeV myself as a roling average number - I take your point that there could be upside on this. So I have plugged in $90. I couldn't quite get myself to stay at a 33% EBITDA to EPS reduction but I compromised at 40%. New EPS numbers below.

3200 mtV = EPS of circa 5.10p
3500 mtV = EPS of circa 5.72p

I don't usually post on here but I see a bunch of posts about Profit, EBITDA & Earnings. BMN does very well when you convert EBITDA to actual Earnings, the average mining company usually has a 60% - 75% deterioation from EBITDA to total EPS. BMN's is a very respectful 33% aided in no part by their lack of debt and of course they can offset previous years tax losses. The final element (tax loss offset) will disappear next year (unless i have misinterpreted their accounts) and will result in an increase from 33% to circa 45% deterioration.

The 2018 numbers are known - they are easy to work out from the information available. EPS attributable to BMN will be circa 1.81p.

Who knows where 2019 will go, the missed production figures were disappointing to say the least. But here is a prediction. If exchange rates remain the same, Vanadium stays on par with the 2018 average, taking into account the earnings attributable to BMN will increase and the tax loss adjustment will disappear then the EPS against two sales figures are below. There is no guarantee that the lower number will be reached or that the upper number will not be exceeded but taking into account the recent issues I would say the level of risk lies with the lower number being hit.

3200mtV = EPS of circa 2.07p
3500mtV = EPS of circa 2.36p

Of course that is not the only aspect driving the short term share price - in fact I would say it is a minor factor at the moment but a factor none the less.

Patience is the key here. Any expression of interest could take a few months to fully materialise into a worthwhile RNS, until then there may be nothing more to report on the issue. When it does happen the news will be held very close to the BOD and probably only released when an offer is received.

But let's look at why there is an expression of interest:

Kearney Vein November samples:
Sample 1: Gold - 7.1g/t and Silver 10.6g/t.
Sample 2: Gold - 10.4g/t and Silver 22.4g/t.

First assisgment of 25T of concentrate shipped in November.

Private placement completed in December to raise £4m in an over subscribed placing. Now I do not normally get excited over a placement and the subsequent dilution. Normally a placement in mining companies goes into salaries and R&D. In this instance we are already drilling and the money goes into additional equipment with the aim of increasing Gold output from 19,000Oz to 30,000 Oz per year.

I have a detailed financial model for mining companies and at 19,000 Oz I predict an EPS of 0.90-1.30p and at 30,000 Oz and EPS of 1.25 to 1.60p. This should translate to a share price of 9p to 32p using the P/E's of 10min and 20 max.

Let's also not forget that the aim is to move to 50,000 Oz per year and that moves the share price to potentially over 50p.

Patience is the key. I have been in this share for over 5 years. BMN took 3 years of waiting, JLP and a few others still have some time to go. Of all the mining shares I see on aim - even including BMN - this is the share that I see with the maximum upgrade against the least downside. The CEO has done a great job to get it here - he doesn't boast about the company or issue crazy predictions on the likes of pro-active. He gets on with it and gets it done - RNS's or news only gets relaeased when it is something important.

So as I said - patience is key. This will unravel in the next 12 months and the final picture will be a great result for those invested. Whether the share price goes up tomorrow or in a few months time is impossible to predict, but the long term trend is only in one direction.

Hope my analysis helps.

Hi Trellis, I have emailed you and added my support.

The fundamentals on this share are fanstastic. Taking into account the new funding getting us to 30,000Oz per year and the share dilution to circa 269m shares, it gives a very conservative EPS of 1.54p. A realistic P/E of 20 and you hit just over 30p per share.

It also generates a very large free cash flow which funds the next move to 50,000Oz per year and a predicted share price of around the 50p mark. Somehwere in between these two is probably the numbers on the table for a buyout - if that is the way the company wishes to proceed.

And we are off !!

Sit tight - feeling positive. Roland recently converted his debt to equity. That means he must feel pretty confident about the whole situation.

This post sums it up perfectly about how aim mining companies work. One thing we know about CB is that his communication is shocking and his RNS’s are always - this is great news guys. Until a mining company gets close to mining the price will fluctuate massively and rights issues will be as regular as the seasons. Even BMN was in the doldrums less than 2 years ago, another of my LT shares Galantas has been a 5 year wait and is only just showing signs of moving. Aim is a huge risk with much longer timescales than we would like to ever think is possible.

The start of the long awaited re rate. Mining has commenced, finance in place, judicial review should come to a decision soon which in my view will be positive.

Very low spread, good to see. Might have something to do with the sale of a goldmine just up the road !! Good times are a coming.

I think they purchased 1.4m shares Aunty. 33m is their total holding, hence the lack of SP movement. PH have a history of adjusting their holdings up and down slightly.

VRFB and Lithium will both have a part to play. Lithium is currently suited to smaller installations of less than 20MW and VRFB to larger. The issue with lithium is that it just doesn’t pay at the moment. Last year there was a small market for it in the U.K. with 4 year contracts but even then only Hybrids really got much interest. This year the whole CM market in the U.K. has changed, batteries have been down graded making FFR difficult to pay and TRIADS are disappearing. I can see VRFB playing a role in larger scale projects in the U.K. particularly for wind but more likely it is an overseas project more suited to Solar. It could of course sit adjacent to any current large scale power plant. At the moment on any battery project it is difficult to make money but as climate levies increase along with other government incentives and a reduction in the installed costs for VRFB then it will be very interesting to see where the market goes.

Good point MM. The initial talk of funding was before CB took on his post at JLP and before JLP got their �50m in funding. It is Glenovers responsibilioty to get the processing plant up and running but of course they will be getting considerable input from CB. It may very well be a win win all round.

My take on Glenoever EPS - lots and lots of assumptions - the main ones are: - Delivered tonnage worked out on the supply of the surface stockpile over 7 years. (The full mine will be able to supply more Tonnage) - We are selling at 33% P2O5 whereas the rock is 22%, so I have assumed the processing will remove 50% of the available tonnage, giving 192,000T / year over the 7 years. - The processing requires CAPEX for which funding is not available, thus is it is likely that a dilution will occur. - Dilution will also occur based upon the South African Mining Charter. - I have used 100M shares dilution as our contribution to the 2 points above. - GLR percentage of profits are 36%. - I have assumed 30% operating costs and 50% of EBITDA reductions to give the net profit. General mining companies have a 70% EBITDA reduction, we should be less and be able to offset some profits when consolidation into the P&L occurs. Tonnes - 192,000 Revenue - �12.2m assuming a 1.35 $/� exchange Op profit - �8.9m GLR% - �3.2m Net profit - �1.6m Shares in issue - 400m EPS - 0.39p P/E of 10 = 3.9p and P/E of 20 = 7.8p. Numbers are for Glenover alone. Full mining should result in larger profits in particular because we can process the rare earth minerial particulary Nb which sells for about $70/Kg so is very valuable. Just my thoughts - lots of assumptions so many other potential scenarios. DYOR.

Hi MM, Long time no parlez. Still got my holding here and keep an eye out for anything interesting. Phosphate Rock is currently trading at 86$/T. Prices have been depressed lately but just started to pick-up. Follow the below link for the pricing. http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/phosphate-rock/5-year/ I'm not that up on Phosphate to know what has driven the price down or why it has started to movce up, maybe somebody else can fill that blank. I have just started to fill in my GLR Glenover spreadsheet on expected EPS from the surface material and then below ground mining. It's very diffiicult to calculate because we don't know what the delivery tonnage per month will be, but I will have a bash at some numebrs and then post them for debate.

Very much agree FB, but a forwartd P/E not historic. The net profit for 2017 associated to BMN is pretty much known from the information already given, the only question mark is average USD/� excvhange used for CY17 and the final EBITDA reductions to give a net profit - EBITDA reductions are always much larger than people expect. However, they can be calculated within a range to give a reasonably accurate EPS and thus the current P/E based upon the end of CY17 MCap and the current MCAP. 2018 is also not that uncertain, most of the variables are known barring major market changes (up or down). So again EPS can be calculated within a margin. The difference between BMN and a company like Largo is how it is valued. P/E is a very small valuation of a mining company. EV to EBITDA gives much more weight, Largo will also have a 50-100 page analysts breakdown to ascertain value. BMN on the other hand is driven by MM's which is driven by supply and demand which hopefully is driven by fundamentals. Long term true value should be found - short term.........

It's more where will BMN's sales be rather than the supply and demand which appears strong. My point on the Supply and demand was that it is good now but BMN's sales decreased last year in terms of mtV sold. I am sure there is a logical explanation so hopefully somebody with more knowledge than me can give me an insight.

The **** are "supply and demand" just in case anybody gets the wrong opinion - not sure why LSE changed it.

I don't think the **** side affects the supply/demand figures, they are both usually based upon matrial available and material demanded by the market. Equally the quenching and plant closures resulted in the drop in the supply side from 102,652 to 92,392 mtV but demand was still a healthy 97,000 mtV. The reason I ask is that I am a reasonable share holder here along with other mining shares and I have detailed spreadsheets calculating my forecasted share prices into the future. BMN looks very good, but my projections at the moment are only based upon production figures of 3600 mtV in CY18 and 5,000 mtV in CY19. The percentage change in the ownership and Vandium increase are easy to calculate. The missing factor is - will sales lag production and if so for how long or will they catch up. My only basis at the moment is 2017 sales.