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Totally agree icemax, it is inevitable that there will be profit taking after a quick rise from around 22p level; good oportunity to get for others! The figures are solid for IOG.

Just saw an note from Finncap within which quotes ... at 220p/th (~US$30/mcf!)..., which gives me another reference to check my figures for income:
this translates to 200p per therm being 27.3 usd per 1000 cf.; and therefore 70MM cf/day gives revenue of 70x1000x27.3 or 1.9 million dollars per day (1.4 million pounds a day). Therefore my figures for 100p per therm of 700k sterling per day seem correct.
At BELOW current spot prices, we will be genrating close to ONE AND HALF MILLION POUNDS A DAY.
In 2 months (within q4 2021) we are due to equal Finncap´s 2021 and 2022 income forecasts!!! And even if the average therm price for 2022 would be 100 pence, we would have an income in excess of 250 million pounds for 2022. And that is not even counting on the production from Southwark in q3 2022!!
Does that not make this company cheap even at double the current share price!!!

Great News! Q4 starts in a couple of days!!
I guess that it will take an update from one of the brokers or some media that has a large investor following, to get the news out there that IOG STILL has the potential to more than double its share price in the near future (brokers current estimates are clearly way out as they use lower flow rate and less than a third of the current therm price) ; we are now on the brink of being a substantial cash generator!! With the most of the risks now mitigated for first gas production.
The figures are there now for an update, as initial flow rates now underpin the planning case (i believe it was outlined at 70MM scf/d). Elgood gave 58 MM scf/d and we add Blythe flow of 45.5, we get a figure of 103.5 MM scf/d.
As I said, personally i think that IOG will be pumping out the gas at max possible rate that is technically possible, as therm prices goes to 200p.; and the figure of 70 for the first two wells seems easily achievable and rising to 140 by Q2 2022 with Southawark being added on.
But taking the flow rate of 70, at 100p per therm, i calculate a monthly income of 700k sterling per day ; 21million per month. 42 million in 2021 (assuming only 2 month production) and 252 million for 2022.!!
At 200p these figures double!!!
- can anyone please check my figures?
The last figures from FinnCap (26 august 2021) give revenue of 10 million 2021 and 82 million for 2022, which are way way out now.
After years of ups and downs, IOG´s time has finally come; well done the team!!

Nice to see more interest in IOG, and more informative posts!
Personally i think that IOG will be pumping out the gas at max possible rate that is technically possible, as therm prices goes to 200p.; with the first field coming in at 58 MM scf/d and we add Blythe flow to that, i would not be surprised to see production by December reaching 90 MM scf/d.
But taking the flow rate of 70, at 100p per therm, i calculate a monthly income of 700k sterling per day (21million per month) - can anyone please check my figures?
At 200p per therm, this is over 40million pounds per month income!!!
Latest figures from FinnCap (26 august 2021) give revenue of 10 million 2021 and 82 million for 2022??
At production of 70 and 100p therm, my figures are 42 million in 2021 and 252 million for 2022.!!
And these figures could even turn out to be conservative!!
comments please??!!

Incidently, 200 million cap gives a share price of just over 40p !!

Melga, Finncap´s last detailed analysis on 8th. april gave a share price estimate of 47p. Finncapp used a gas price of 45p per therm for calculations. At the end of july, the 6 month winter price was 101 pence per therm and the summer 2022 price was 59p. They have gone up further since then.
Elgood was valued at 13 million dollars; but i believe that any downgrade in reserve estimates will be more than overcome by the increase of gas prices.
Personally, I reckon that there will be a takeover bid around the time of first gas, or when the LOG shares are placed.
Depending on your holding size, in this thin market, it may not be wise to sell until volumes go up. Each to his own, but I would not put a target to sell below 35p to 40p, now we have got this far!!

Looking at the share price over the past few months, i think it is interesting to note that FinnCap´s detailed note on the company and outlook, that came out April 8th 2021, revised conservatively the target share price at 47p ( they used a gas price of 45p for calculations v´s today´s foward price of 104p). The share price went up by 25%. And has not lost much since then.
Surely we need an update from the brokers and a bit more PR from the company to get message out there and drum interest in the company.
With first gas (and cash) now three months away, and a gas price which has more than doubled, share price should be in the mid thirties by now, and that is being conservative?!

Last time it was 5 days; and exactly on time (seepost last Thursday), the RNS this morning to confirm the spudding of Blythe.
Three months to first gas ... there is no stopping us now!!!
If you have´nt bought into IOG, this is could be your last chance at these prices!!

Interesting article GG. Looks like we will sell our gas into a very strong (demand) market . This should make our little company very interesting at current share price!
With our own pipeline and facilities at Bacton and the potential of hydrogen there (using the gas); it should an interesting few months coming up, after all this wait!

Until first gas (implying the start of cash generation and payment of debt) and the placement of the LOG share overhang, we are pretty much at the mercy of the market makers who need to drum up interest to move shares and thus make money.
As risk is mitigated with every positive step towards first gas, the shares should become more and more attractive to small and institutional investors, with out-of-date valuations (in need of being revised upwards) with the current price being under half of the brokers´ estimates.

6 month winter price of 101 pence per therm ( 96% up on the central planning case -cps) and summe 2022 price of 59p. (up 49% on cps; this would indicate planning prices of 51.5p (winter) and 39.6p (summer 2022). Finncapp used a price of 45p for calculations. This would add many millions of pounds to the company value and has not been reflected in my opinion.
Further, the big move down in share price after Elgood RNS seems very unmerited; it would be interesting to get a proper revaluation of the Elgood resevoir: from what i can find Elgood has been valued at 13 million dollars; what has been the downgrade in reserve estimates ? If this it is proportional (??) to the excess depth drilled to find the resevoir -39 feet of a reservoir of 1080 feet, this gives a downgrade figure of less than 4% - that is around half a million pounds )!! The increase in value of the gas looks it will revalue the field by over 50% (10 times the downgrade). The company value went down around 15 million pounds!!
Hopefully, time and an update in vluations, will put things right!!

Shipping update: Tugs no longer seem to be in the vicinity of the rig; which would indicate it is in position with the legs down. Last time (Elgood) it took 5 days to spud. So we should see drilling by beginning of August. First gas should be at beginning of November.
The supply ship VOS Paradice has now come out again and is nearby the rig.

It all seems to be coming together as planned, with today´s RNS confirming the signing of the gas sales agreement (another tick in the planning list). I note from the RNS that the 6 month winter prices are 101 pence per therm ( 96% up on the central planning case -cps) and summer prices are up 49% on cps; this would indicate planning prices of 51.5p (winter) and 39.6p (summer 2022). Further looking back at Finncap´s company note back in april (valuing the company at 47p per share), they have used price per therm of 45p.
Further, in the reports, overall peak procuction rates seem to be estimated at around 70 Bcfe/d ; just Elgood alone has come in at around 58 and one has to add Blythe (and then Southwark etc.) to production.
All this would imply to me that there should be a considerable revaluation due to value of the company (inmediately of at least 35 - 40% - on the 47p valuation . A faster flow rate will imply aomproved incomcome generation and to be able to take advantage of the higher short term prices.
Surely we are due for updates from the company and brokers!!

The rig NOBLE HANS DEUL is now at Blythe and is stationary. It should be jacking the legs down now and we should be seeing confirmation RNS this week.
Last stage before that long awaited first gas!

looks like the NOBLE HANS DEUL now on the way to Blythe.

The worth of the overall reserves are still way above the current market valuation for the company. In addition, the variation of price of gas is far more important at this stage for the company than a ¨less optimal scenario¨for the very small Elgood field.
The most important event is having that first gas (and hence cash) flow to Bacton.
It is not the best news, but it is not bad news. We are still pretty much on target to get firts gas before year´s end (and better timed for better gas prices.
A temporary, negative movement in share price at this stage is more to do with the market makers and short term investors.
There is enough gas to start the cash flow which will put this company in a much better position to consolidate and grow; it has the infrastructure and the team.

Supply ship VOS Paradise still coming and going between Yarmouth and the rig Noble Hans Deuel (at Elgood). Three months of drilling now ; awaiting to see the move to Blythe. Anything to be seen in that the supply ship VOS Glamour arrived this morning at Blythe and has Blythe as its destination?

sorry GG; didn´t see the post this am.!

FYI: looks like the crane ship is at blythe now:

SEAWAY STRASHNOV
Crane Ship
Next port BLYTHE PLATFORM

ETA May 27, 23:00