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Or maybe they want more fees for doing F**** A**!! Last report stated that there should be NO need to extend and the company will be disolved by October 10 2025. I recommend to the administrators that they finish the job soon or have a a very good excuse (to extend); they might find themselves being sued otherwise!!

Interestingly another 8 % move up today and not much difference between buys and sells and not a great volume; additionaly L.Odier disposed of anothe 5 million shares on Friday, yet share price was up. Together with R. Griffiths they sold around 7% shareholding last week. No TR1 to show new important investor (over 3 %) or movement up in the holding of the main shareholders. Are we been prepared for some positive news??!! I hope so!!!

and thank you Sailor for informing on the continuing marine activity offshore; always appreciated ...

GG : When I was at school 28p x 5m would be £1.4m
what are you referrring to?? I can´t see any messages that have stated this.
I put some figures down that referred to the volume of shares traded this week and to the fairly large reduction of two main shareholders and commented that it seems rather strange that no TR1 ´s have been posted to show that either the shares had been taken up by another main shareholder or a new important holder.

This week has seen the share price rise by over 20%. But still a long long way from where it should be!
This week we have had TR1´s that show a decrease of holdings of R. Grifiths and Lombard Odier collectively by over 30 million shares (around 6% of total company) and the volume of shares traded this week being around 34 million.
So where have all these shares gone? I don´t know what the number is for the long term average daily share volume, but i would reckon half a million to one and a half million is normal. So there must be some big player(s) taking up these large volumes being sold. Yet no TR1´s to show increase in holdings or new holders of over 3%.
Very slack reporting?! or maybe leaving it as long as possible before reporting the position (for obvious reasons)?!
In all cases, the overall effect of this week´s trading is that we have moved up 20%. But we are still under half the broker´s recommended share price target!!

Hi sailor; maybe a silly question, but what makes you think that the NHDeul is at a standby position? Why would she be put in a standby position and not the drilling position? She had to put the legs down in either case.

For all that is written on this board, although interesting, is soon burried behind new posts. The reports by the brokers is what brings in new PI´s and importantant investors.
It is good to see that inspite of the lowering of reserves of phase 1, Finncap maintain the target of 66p. Also very interesting is that they have revealed the flow rates they use for their revenue calculations:

We assume 2022 gross production for Blythe and Elgood of 30 mmcfd and 20 mmcfd, respectively...
It seems hard to believe that IOG will not meet these targets.
AS the flow rate is established, we will get more rigorous reports and should easily move to and beyond the current share price targets.
Keep that gas flowing!

Thank you for the update Sailor; you are up early with the birds this morning! With Elgood and Blythe producing gas , I am sure that all efforts will be made now to get Southwark up and running too, as soon as possible.
Discovering, financing, producing and bringing gas to the market is a very challenging business, and it seems to me that we have to take our hats off to IOG and the team behind it, in that ALL the boxes are now ticked and cash is now being generated! Whether a little late or that the fields are a liitle smaller than in the estimated plans is really insignificant compared to the facts that we are producing gas and bringing it to the market using our own infrastructure!! And being paid at a price that is multiples of the planned case. The opportunities to build on our portfolio will now be a much easier task.
The share price will be a roller coaster for a while, as virtually every shareholder is sitting on substantial profits. But the direction will eventually be up towards the current target price of the brokers. As we get production figures, we should see another re-rate.
Well done to all that have stayed with the company so far, and i am now much more confident that IOG will grow and prosper from the solid base that it has now achieved.

Again, taking advantage of increase in volumes to unload around 6 million shares, Lombard Odier taking some profits (from memory they were invested when share price was around 12p - so around 20p profit per share that is around 1.2 million profit). It seems the norm that these professionals (richard grffiths last week with 10 million shares moved) wait until there is news to generate volumes and then unload a packet of shares. It is oviously a big drag on the share price and may explain why we are not near the 50p mark at this stage. Hopefully, now we have become a producer, we get some institutional investors that come in to take up the shares held by this type of investor (and LOG), so that the share price can move up to reflect the value of the company. Hopefully the increase of awareness of IOG to new PI´s should translate in the share price moving up. A bit more patience required....

Viti. I totally agree. Today IOG has become a gas producer and will now qualify for institutional investors who are now looking to invest in Gas. There is the inevitable sell on the news, especially as the majority of investors are now sitting on good profits. I am confident that the LOG shares will be placed with institutions, be part of a share buy back scheme by IOG or go to a company as part of a takeover bid; there is absolututely no need for the administrators to sell on the open market (bond holders have all been refunded by the goverment). While IOG finds these new shareholders, there will be pressure on the shares as shareholders cash in for some profits.
We will see more positive press and broker reviews as IOG establishes a flow rate; this should lead to the shares price moving upward. But as pointed out, the ride could be bumpy as there will be those that would want to cash some profits.

Thank you KingSuarez, I stand corrected (i should have known better than to try to do sums with a hangover! More than a toast or two went down last night, to IOG finally getting there after 11 years of ups and downs in the company).
And further to affc21 post, if we DO include Southwark from Q4 estimate revenues to IOG and we look only at revenues from 2022 as shown in the report :
upside revenue Q2 2022....107.49 million
Q3 2022.... 101.85 million
Q4 2022.... 94.5 x 2 = 189million (as Southwark goes online).
Base case 13.5x 2 +13.5x2 (Q4 with Southwark)= 54 million.

Total 2022 income to IOG of 452.34 million (and not counting the revenue from this month).

That is double Finncap´s latest estimate of 221 million revenue for 2022 (their current target is 66p/share).
These figures are based on flows from Blythe and Elgood at 70 mmscfd and another 70 for Southwark.

thanks affc21; its nice that someone comes back to you. It did seem important to me to try to work out the numbers!!

affc21, looking at what you posted; you have only put in the upside figures and not total income, and have not included the anticipated production of Southwark. And still they look impressive!

affc21, you beat me to it whilst writing the blog!!

Looks like Monday is going to be the BIG DAY. Once the gas tap is turned on, and we establish a flow rate, we should see some proper number crunching being made by the brokers and the company. Looking at the presentation just out, I would appreciate some help in confirming the numbers that can be deduced from the report (although i cannot, for the life of me, understand why they did not complete the numbers in the report itself!!): For 2022
april+may+ june revenue per £mm /10mmscfd at 41.5+30.7 = 72.2 million pounds
july+august+september revenue per £mm /10mmscfd at 38.1+29.1 = 67.2 million pounds
october+ november+december revenue per £mm /10mmscfd at 46.4+27 = 73.4 million pounds
I beleive it is estimated that he production from Blythe and Elgood is around 70 mmscfd and another 70 added to this figure once Southwark is producing.
Therefore we multiply the figures Q2 and Q3 by 7 and (being conservative on Southwark income coming at the end Q3) Q4 by 14.
This would imply an income figure for 9 months of 2022 of 505.4+470.4+1027.6 or better said 2 BILLION POUNDS for 2022.
The current market valuation of IOG is 228 million pounds. HaHa!!!

Richard Griffiths just unloaded close to 10 million shares on the market, taking advantage of the increase in volumes traded and an increase in share price. A profit of at least a couple of million pounds for them i would imagine, thank you very much IOG. And they still have another 23 million shares to carry forward. If they sat on those shares for a bit longer, we could well be over 45p. Over the last few days, there were not many sales recorded, but they were big volumes: Griffiths! Hopefully if the volumes continue to be high, and if they are through with selling for now, we will be moving up again.
Nearly there now to getting that gas flowing! Come on IOG!!

Some steady buying this morning, but looks like sell triggers being hit as share price is going up; various times that the share price spiked up, a big sell is made. As it hit 38p this morning, a sell of 500,000 shares was made. But the price has more than maintained and my broker is currently showing it up 2p. There is obviously more latent demand and with the new situation of the first gast flowing imminently, the geopolitical situation adding to IOG attractiveness and Finncap raising the bar for the share price from 48p to 66p, I am very optimistic.

ALigator, I agree that it is very frustrating that no real explanation was given for delays of close to 5 months in bringing the gas online. Fortune has been on the management side in that the gas prices have risen enormously and now look to continue to stay high in the event of geopolicital developments. This will more than make up for the delays . The forum for giving the adequate explanations will be at the general meeting and i am sure that the shareholders will take the relevant actions once we have heard these from management. Exploration is not a straightforward activity and there are many risks and circumstances that can cause delays; i have a feeling that most of the delays were due to the fact that we were at the mercy of Perenco in Bacton, who do not have the same agenda as IOG. I am sure it will all come out in the end.
IOG has had a bit of yin and yang, and for all the negative events, there has been the balance of the rising and consolidating gas price at multiple of the planning figure! The most important factor for IOG and a turning point in its history, is it becomes a cash generator. The capital has largely been spent, and now in a week´s time, for very little additional expenses, millions will be generated on a daily basis.
Given the need for local gas to the UK, and the positive news that will be in the headlines over the next few weeks, I would not be very surprised that IOG will now seem to be a very attractive target. Finally, i think that the LOG shares will finally find a home and that in itself will cause a re-rate.
If you have made it so far on this long and tortuous journey with IOG, do not be tempted to ¨sell on the news¨, we are at an inflecion point where IOG starts to generate cash; and THAT changes everything

I would be surprised that the LOG stake would not be taken up by an institutional investor or someone that would want to have an important stake in IOG. Given the situation of the gas market, that the company being on the verge of producing gas, and the current, undervalued price of the IOG shares. I reckon that we are at that perfect time where such a move would be made!
It is the only way that the 145 M. LOG shares can find a home at an acceptable price to them; consistantly putting more than a few thousand shares on the market on any normal day would send the IOG price plummeting.
I seem to recall that around 40p was their target?
If the LOG shares find a home, that would set the IOG shares on fire!!

Great to see the chat is balanced by looking at fundamentals and not share price speculation; although one is inevitably influenced by the other.
The initial flow rates underpin the planning case (i believe it was outlined at 70MM scf/d). Elgood gave 58 MM scf/d and we add Blythe flow of 45.5, we get a figure of 103.5 MM scf/d.
Obviously, given the prices of gas, the company will try to reach the maximum maintainable flow rate. When Southwark comes in later this year, i believe the aim is to get to 140.
Fingers crossed that we have gas flowing in 3 weeks!