Member Info for Tornadotony

Pedro

As I only hold 4% of my Shanta holding Rainbow Rare earths is currently holding number 1 position in my portfolio. Rare earth sector has been utterly crushed in the winter months and is now on a bit of a rally. Everyone should do their own research of course and we do not know if Trump will support the rare earth sector. China has threatened to cut off the west as rare earths are used in missiles, drones, fighter aircraft and ships etcetera and its not just EVs and windfarms. Tony

Note for not.

121 to 121.6

112.9 to 113.6

109.3 to 110.9p

I am expecting all of these to get closed in the pull back. To not a gap above has been created and to note for summer rally. Ideally we do not want a rally to close that gap today to 126p.

As the options get sold back to bullion banks, physical order deliveries are not going to happen. Miners may well get a hit today. They are now reliant on the physical market to start buying coins and bars, jewellery or more central bank buying. Eventually that interest level will be met.

Earlier zero hedge articles I put on here were correct. Shanghai Chinese Future Options market in gold was capped over the weekend. We have seen today heavy selling in both gold and silver options. Likely to have heavy selling as we go through the week. $2300 gold unlikely to hold. Evidence of selling in the options market appears to have been taking place since 16th April. Gold rally for the time being is over and seriously over in silver.

Gold down $62 an ounce and unsure how this can hold up for much longer. Perhaps awaiting US open. Looks like options market are not taking physical gold deliveries.

A retreat in gold and silver is necessary. Very rarely do things go up in straight lines and go slightly parabolic. The rally has created future confidence in gold and silver and that will likely play through later in 2024. New highs are in place to broken at some future date.

Mr Tibbs

The entire issue is how one particular party rallied the gold price and ignored all other factors. It is not as if London, Shanghai and New York operated together to upgrade the gold price. It was only China. What may happen is that we see quite a drop in gold for two months and a gold rally over the whole summer unfolds where multiple parties work up prices together and physical jewellery buyers in June get a chance to re-stock on gold (which is often at the low of the year for gold). A rally has to be widely owned otherwise over time it will collapse as hardly anyone will make gold jewellery or sell gold coins and bars outside of China. Tony

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/israel-s-strikes-do-little-damage-but-send-powerful-last-word-message-to-iran/ar-AA1nhRk1?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=9ea8ffda094b46c9a950b9c1392e4d71&ei=37

Hopefully can de-escalate from here.

On the previous link.

Https://www.shfe.com.cn/eng/reports/index.html

Https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-04-18/ross-norman-golds-mystery-buyer

I agree with this article. Few minutes read.

So glad I averaged down when it was 9.4p. Still time tomorrow to pile more in.

The miss was mainly on earnings in Q1 that were around $23M or 1.7p a share. Allowing for the 104,000 it was probably 4,000-5,000 on what some may have expected. This would verify a 5p drop that we observed. The main issue is how long the low grade ore was being mined this month (feed grade at open pit needs to increase 0.21g/t which is a big ask. If the grade improvement happens in May then April production would be 33,000 ounces instead of 40,000 and they would lose 1/6th of the profit from current higher prices in gold. This later metric gives a pull back figure to say 123p. The other risk building up is that may not be able to hit the high end projections for the year being forecast.

Well I did the same thing as LOAM and have no Nanoco shares in ISA and everything in a trading account. Maintaining a new rule of no AIM like companies in ISAs after recent good returns. Have no idea what will happen with this one, but can sit on it for another year.

We will soon find out if the market likes or dislikes the lipstick applied to the piggy.

It shows the vulnerability of gold miners trying to keep up with gold. If the physical market can not take miners produced gold then the paper market has messed things up. All about taking physical delivery of what they produce.

I thought this might happen with everything leaning to Q4 again. The base line for Centamin is around 102p with this rally up from 93p. Everything above is dependent on the gold price holding and production levels returning. The AISC is still higher than expected. Centamin will take a hit this morning.

I am still waiting to see what happens with the gold options closing on 25 April. Whoever bought them in the rally has to take physical delivery. We also get to see where the delivery goes if taken.

Lewis

We both know a nickel mine is very different to a rare earth mine construction. HZM was not the only nickel mine closed in construction, several others got mothballed and you probably know why.