Member Info for Tornadotony

Dividend

24/31 times declared dividend price. If it was 39p before it would be 30.19p.

Cutting the dividend amongst more shares is a principle driver to take the stock below 1020p today.

I bought a modest holding today at 1013 after realising I would qualify for the rights which equates to somewhere around 936p with rights averaged in to what I have bought. Most of the share drop in the rights issue has materialised today. I have held some monies back to buy without rights in June as an average down. Will certainly take up the rights assuming I am right on getting them.

The issue to bear in mind is that Capex over the next 9 months is some $50M higher to create more flexibility in ore processing. The net impact thus far on the higher gold price say to the end of May is around $16M. RSG share price is likely to do well in 2025. In the meantime I would expect a revisit at 22p-23p if gold retreats to $2100 area. The good news is that it probably won't go lower unless a production or geopolitical adverse event happens.

The process if you are in HL or bell or any similar platform. You will get a message in your in box inviting you to take up whatver percentage of the 7 out of 24 shares that you held close of play on 20 May. If you held 4800 shares you get to buy 1400 at 645p as an example. If you do not have enough cash for all 1400 you can buy whatever is affordable. For some people they will sell some of their NG shares to be able to buy the full allocation they qualify at 645p.

Institutions have a bigger problem then retail as they hold far less in cash. Some of those 7 billion shares need to have new retail buyers or institutions that do not own any NG but have some spare cash. They will get interested in buying between 830p-930p. It is likely that for several days the share price will get very low to clear all the RI shares not taken up. It is unlikely to be oversubscribed as the market has been flooded essentially with NG shares. Once the NG flood recedes the price slowly goes back to £10 around six months from now.

The smart move this morning was to sell 22% of your holding and buy the 645p if you are holder and have some cash back to buy at the bottom on average down.

The dividend in future is spread over more shares so expect the yield to decline. 39p divi becomes a 32p divi. Hence why this share is likely to drift lower. As a non-holder I would not buy the stock at late March prices after a 15% dilution via RI. The share price will go a lot lower as the buy side drops and those delivering the RI shares sit on a mountain of them.

As someone who experienced the 2010 RI, the share price is likely to drift down. The first issue is liquidity of both retail and institutional investors. To benefit in getting 645p shares, many here will need to sell some existing to have cash to buy an RI allocation. Hence the first big drop. The second issue that not all the shares get taken up and those delivering the RI drop the SP to off load excess stock. A good entry price here is probably 920-930p. The current 1025p is to expensive for a lot of investors. So far the price has only retreated what it put on in the last month or so.

If production holds not is production.... in previous. Also gold needs to hold $2300 per ounce for 2024.

$138M in debt. This has to come off enterprise value metrics

H1 losses despite the high gold price are likely around $22M and they may need to settle a deferred interest arrangement with the bank adding another $10M in costs. The most they are likely to make in profit per share is 1.2p and for a 6 year reserve LOM gives a fair value share price of 7.2p in relation to its peer group. This requires Kouroussa hitting nameplate production from 1 July. Target values next year obviously improve is production holds in both mines, but the value is not 15p at this time and unlikely to be the case in 2024.

Final stage purity expected at 99.5%

separated NdPr RE oxides in Q2 2024, with Dy

and Tb to follow.

Just under 62p. Shortly must now be very very soon.

After a lot of reading on other tin mines over the past few hours, I have decided to sell off with a very modest profit. Wishing everyone the best. The project looks fine, but my concern is a pull back on tin prices and what we are seeing is a commodity price top across several metals. I could be wrong and it may go back to 10p and regret not staying with it. However, the price revaluation here may have just hit here a lot earlier than elsewhere in the sector. Good luck to the longer term holders. All the best Tony PS it will probably now close at 7.5p

If they archived them on investor meets presentations, I can go to them. You have answered my question of where they are on the AISC front.

Tin instead of tine!

Yes it was and I listened to the presentation as well.

I should mention that the AISC per tonne at least appears credible. It would be useful to see a graph of other AISC of other tine producers and the company may do that at some point to show us where they sit in the market at this time.

No I was just looking at what they company have published to date. The IRR is not at some absurd high rate. My impression is that the PEA data they gave is not an over egged pudding.

As for Blue Vision. They have a huge investment at 18p entry price and they look quite embedded and committed to this project. If another investor was withdrawing then you would think they may know of another investor interested in the project to take some of their shares instead of losing value directly into the market. The seller is still there.

What we do not know is who is selling amongst PIs. We may just have a number of PIs who decided to quit owning the stock after waiting for the PEA and they are a part of the source of the selling to create capital gains losses.

I have looked into the PEA and the plan the company is pursing. The Board have not published a load of BS like some AIM company's. They have been fairly transparent although they could provide us with more detail on how they arrived at the AISC figure for example how much of it is on debt repayment, labour, energy and so forth. They have also given a figure on what they think the Tin market will look like in a backdrop of a future weaker USD currency. Overall, it looked credible in my own opinion. Another factor is a further study to undertake to deliver the financial case. The initial work was preliminary. The response to crash the share price like it has is indeed not fitting with the progress of the project in my own opinion.

NdPr price was up today. In fact the last time rare earths were at the current prices on 21 February the share price was 12.25p.

Built up my holding to 200,000 on Friday. Not sure how many other bought on here. It is helpful to know if we have PIs telling us they have sold out on the pullback. Share volume activity is greater than 72M in a week. I am sure the company would know if Blue vision was selling out. Assuming it is Osisoro pull out of 7.75% only PIs and other investors could be on the other side of any selling. None of us have enough visibility to be sure.

As for shorting does anyone have an account with Ortex. Can they also confirm the short interest is only 0.005% on Cornish Metals.

A well managed exit is when one large seller does a deal with one or more potential buyers which could be a private investor or institutional buyers. The pull out this week is like a Woodford and Odey forced sales. Those executing it may use as tax losses or whatever. What I hope the company can do through using a broker is to get institutional investment interest. If the investment case is that strong someone may like the investment story and pick up 1-2% of the company.

The selling into the Canadian open identified the source of what is going on. Exactly who it is and not producing TR1s has created a disorderly market. It will be up to the company to complain about it if it continues. If it is a short position it makes little sense to take on the company after an RNS by doubling down and they will get another kicking on Monday.

I have averaged down now under 6.25p.