Member Info for Tornadotony

For this month gold has put in a peak imop. The problem is that the physical gold market in jewellery and the coin and bar buyers has practically halted as jewellery makers look for lower prices as a buffer on future sales and private investors buy in dips instead of a top of a rally. On top of that major factors holding USD down has just given way.Central banks buying of gold is closing out for the time being. Paper gold does not help miners in the real physical market some one has to take delivery. Finally when you get pie in sky media prices on gold it is a big red flag that the top is usually in.

Interesting to see how things pan out today. USD continues to break out versus yen. First interest rate cut by FED is now Q4 with a tiny chance given for September. Two planks helping gold rally are now out (they are likely to return a few months from now). If geo-political is the only thing holding it up then it would need to reprice to a degree to match that level of risk which is probably lower than $2350 an ounce.

It is extremely difficult calling a top and bottom. So much goes on in the market it favours the strategy of top slicing as it gets extremely overbought and averaging down entries when a bottom looks likely. The SBUL short got knocked back as well. A powerful buyer is calling the shots and they used daily moving average support lines on the gold channel support line as their entry point.

Shorts starting to go into gold. This could be at a peak.

Steve

SBUL short on gold is now rising.

Lets see what unfolds. Steve, I said a peak forms around this time and then a retreat starts. The retreat can last for days, weeks or months.

As expected inflation running hot across the board in the CPI. Earlier news on Bloomberg was that central buying of gold is slowing right down so not just CPI bad for gold. No chance of interest rates dropping in H1 State side. USD rising and yen for the time being has lost the 151 handle as they fight to support the currency. Expecting things to hit the fan on US open.

All the major gold rallies after 2000 in previous.

Steve

If the USA economy was during great we would not have such a gold rally at over 18%. All the major gold rallies were associated with serious banking problems in USA. A few people will question the FED. Will it be a case of instead of just Houston we have a problem it is Washington DC and New York we have a really big problem. Tony

The rally since 12 February is 18.8%.

The 2003 dot com crash initial rally was 20% in 2003. 10 months later in 2003 another 12% rally occurred.

In 2005 to 2006 Q4 into Q1 rally was 20%. A second rally in 2006 gave 25.6% but then gave it all back in a decline. It took quite a few months to slowly claw it all back again.

2007 the rally was 16%.

2008 the rally was 16.7%.

2009 the rally was 24% and later on followed by 21%.

2010 the rally was 9.3%

2011 gave a rally in 3 quarters. Q1 was 4.5% Q2 was 5.6% and then Q3 was 21%

2019 gave 16% rally

2020 gave two rallies both were 16% with a several week consolidation in between.

1980 rally is unlikely to be ever repeated as so much has changed in how the market works since then.

The current rally is joining the previous top 6 in the history of 2000-2024 rallies. 3 rallies were associated with a stock market crash and recovery phase.

Gold is not a stock.

Gaps in equity stocks may not get filled in the event of an RNS. So any gaps in the charts have to be rechecked that no RNS was issued. A gap can happen at the very beginning of a major move higher that is subsequently bullish move higher or at the very start of a significant down trend. Gaps in Centamin that can be between a buy and sell price of 0.10p would be ignored.

Gaps in ETFs that work across different time zones have to be ignored all the time as they arise so frequently.

Gaps on AIM stocks with precious little liquidity and trading volumes also have to be ignored.

Centamin has a gap chart of significance on 28 March at 112.9 to 113.6p. We shall see if it gets back filled.

Steve

I certainly believe a retreat is likely to happen and the gaps in the charts get back filled for gold and silver. I can not give you a firm date, but I would not be surprised if it happens in the coming weeks.

I took my profits for the last financial year on 2 April. I have chosen to stay out of this move. I think you have misquoted what I said before. I commented that prices often form peaks in early April and then fall off around the second week. It may have something to do with ISA investments or new investments from funds or whatever. Then quite often stocks retreat to lower prices afterwards. I am sitting mainly in cash and will wait for entry prices that are low enough for me to sell higher later.

Gold is now very expensive and what is going on in the physical market supports that view, whether it is recycling, miners finding more ounces to supply, western and Indian jewellery not selling, mint coin and bar sales not happening despite big cuts in premiums.

Tony

Steve

Charts are not all hindsight. Fibonacci levels do give useful data and like it or not RSI and stochastics, MACD and bollinger bands all have a use. What the all time chart currently reveals on gold is that the current upwards move is parabolic and it became that way after spot prices passed $2320 per ounce. Any way Steve you have a successful way of trading and my way is successful for me and other people have their own methods. The key is working a formulae that fits your own strengths and copes with own weakness. All the best Tony

PS It is handy that lots of people have different methods otherwise we would all buy and sell at the same time.

Now fully out and have a decent Capital gains tax off set. Hope you folks get some luck.

Hi Polythene Pam

1. There is a possibility that gold tops out this week. If it does and we see a retreat it is likely to rally again later in the year and could go higher. If you sold some you could be a trader and jump back in, but do not expect it to be at 80p as a price re-entry for centamin as an example. Some of us regard this kind of move as creating free carry profits. (If you bought at 102p and ran the lot you sold again for another run to 120p you would have gained on that stake again.

2. A profit is a profit whenever you book one and trying to get a top and bottom price on any stock is a mugs game.

3. Always have exit strategies for any investment.

4. Always have a watch list for other investments.

5. Company CEOs and CFOs can screw up any company. It is truly amazing the fouls up they can make and they can come out of the blue any time. Hence never have all the investment eggs in one company basket.

Tony

Steve for anyone buying 1 ounce gold coins in late March, they have recovered all the premium and are in profit. If they bought a coin at the beginning of 2023 they are 40% up. In fact in 2022 you could buy 7 one ounce gold bars for £10,000 and today it is just 5. I wonder what this rally is telling us. We should know more next week. Gold daily RSI 84. Weekly RSI now at 77.

Down to 15 for RBW. Inverse of gold were the daily is going for 84.

Can not buy any more just tried.

Can not admit being a shorter on the stock just pumping out garbage to support the position. See this many times before.

Reetech

There is not a brilliant and perfect rare earth company out there. Why be so pedantic and aggressive towards the company. It was interesting that you posted another company doing what rainbow rare is trying to do with K-Tech. If anything it gives confidence that the project is on the right future track. Can you tell us if you are an investor here or not. If you are shorting this stock be honest about it. Incidentally find me a CEO who does not sell their company to would be investors, they all do it unless they are solely a private company owner. Tony

2281-2285

2257-2267

2238-2249

2187-2193

2170-2175

They always get back filled. Anyone missing this rally is missing the elevator drop later. If you made some money and have not predicted the the top be happy with the success you did get. Like playing tipping point. Enjoy the mystery prize and being in the game as long as you dared. Tony

(In the hospital yesterday, wife okay but it sure gave me a reminder of what is truly important).