Member Info for Tornadotony

Quite happy for gold to rocket Steve. However, I sometimes wonder about the consequences generally when it does. I also have enjoyed a great run on the gold miner ETFs, CEY, HoC, Shanta Gold and more recently FRES. Have sold them all on the early side but have another positive year on the portfolio.

The pump and dump game is only a possibility and it is not just gold, a lot of things have stretched valuations at that moment.

When everyone gets on one side of the boat I often become a bit more contrarian. Sentiment is so high that the greed indicator is sky high and fear is near zero.

I hold a small position in Shanta with no votes attached and await to see the outcome. If the institutions voted against then I assume they will buy more shares and if it goes ahead there is a 4.5% to bag in just a few months which equals best bank rate for that time period.

Unless I am mistaken, the reserve grades of ore have dropped significantly from last year. I recall it being 2.97g/t very close to 3g/t. Now down 2.7-2.88 g/t. At 2.4g/t Luika needs a new ball mill and kit to deliver more ore and production goes down to say 56k ounces. They are signalling Luika is an old complex probably with 6 years mine life. Strong message to institutional holders to agree a deal. Kenya assets still do not have a mining licence granted and they will want to deal with a private company is the hint on that recent approval. Gold likely to have hit a spring time peak and may go on a retreat. All the best Tony

Https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/how-to-pump-and-dump-like-the-wolf-of-wall-street-20230112-p5cc0i

Radomski bought a gold long yesterday on Gold eagle news. End of the rally.

The gold price has moved £105 an ounce since 20 March only two weeks ago. The last two occasions this kind of increase arose arose was after the Brexit vote when the UK currency dropped significantly and during the August gold rally peak that formed in 2011. Zero hedge has a gold article tonight trying to work out what is going on as so many sources are not buying gold and some are selling into this rally.

The precious metals recycling especially gold will be loving this. The physical gold buying outside of China has collapsed. This is a paper gold price not a physical buy. It is one thing to have daily overbought at 80 RSI to have the weekly over 75 is nuts. The miners will get hit if the jewellery business stops taking gold orders. The rise is to much to soon. A semi detached house in many parts of southern UK is now under 400 ounces last arose back in 2011. An indicator that gold is becoming expensive.

I am out with gold weekly RSI approaching 75 it will retreat at some point. Like running in front of a steam roller to grab a few pennies.

Gold RSI Daily 79.3 Gold RSI weekly 74.51. Stochastics have been on 100% for awhile. As night follows day this will severely correct. Gaps in the charts all over the place for a number of gold miners and ETFs. They always back fill when we have no RNS. Last few days of the rally and it can retreat any time and it might do a quick double top and go back down. Time to take profits imop.

Taken a chunk off for nearly 8-10% profit. This look a top of the market peak going through. Still have a good slice on and watching where this goes.

Steve, I have lost track of how many times gold and Centamin have peaked in the first two weeks of April. Selling off at this time has made me a packet in the past. Some kind of double top in gold and then we go down in hundreds. Lovely cheap Centamin shares say in six to nine weeks. Tony ( lets see if I get it right again)

Sold off remaining Centamin. Will be back in after the inevitable big pull back. Not trying to get the exact top or bottom.

It allows smaller share holders to manage HZM share losses over two financial years. In the UK the capital gains tax limit is only £3,000. Two years ago it was more like £12,500. The HZM loss is being used as a CGT asset against likely gains in other parts of their portfolio.

Yes SP

It won't go bust although the share price of late generates that kind of gloom.

Tony

It does mean something for Directors to put money into the company. It has an impact in conversations they have with other stakeholders.

What is needed are mechanism to support funding sources by the western governments to secure essential commodity resources that are adversely affected by China commodity manipulation or other Governments that wish to harm Western Governments and their people. Rainbow rare earths and Pensana projects are both needed. They are on similar delivery pathways, they both rely on a western government alliance, they both rely on a climate protection agenda they both need receptive financers and governments providing support for a long term market free of Chinese interference. China supports its industries quite intensively. It may go against western government ethos to take a leaf out of the Chinese market book, but in some way that may be necessary for western governments to do.

I also wish we had more respect for people who are trying to support western rare earth projects in this area without all the cross board company interference. I have investments in both. Both companies have merits and both have a risk of going bust which says something about the risk we are all taking in trying to help secure a better future quite probably for those in a younger generations than ourselves.

Tony

Lawrence with just £3,000 CGT limit in 2024/25, you can use some of the losses to increase where CGT applies. Hopefully you did not hold any in an ISA.

Reetech

They will close the optimisation process otherwise it leads to market failure for the entire project and I believe the CEO is very much aware of that risk. I was happy with the RNS as it set out quite a few issues for investors to take on board. RBW are moving in the right direction.

Tony

Cadellin,

What Rainbow are doing with K-Tech is quite extraordinary in terms of the flowsheet. George has revealed in the February RNS some of the complexities that have been overcome to date. I believe K-Tech and Rainbow can deliver purified NdPr on decent recoveries by 30 June 2024. It is a critical date as 2026 production is probably now in Q4. I suspect George underestimated all the work K-Tech had to do and at some point as they found it better to use a carbonate then a sulphate and lost some time. A similar amount of time is being taken to overcome any further issues down the NdPr flowsheet. It would be great if the results arrive earlier than by 30 June and I hope it is a case of delivering earlier than missing a target.

As for the share price, sentiment on sold rare earth prices has reduced interest in the sector. The fall to 15p to 12p was probably down to the 3 month disparity to when we thought results may be incoming. McKinley reported importance of rare earths recently and how the sector was not getting investment. Hence we are either at a nadir or heading towards one. Longer term RBW should bounce back. I hope George has it as a credo on his desk not to over promise and under deliver, but to err the opposite way which is hard to do when sentiment is at rock bottom. I believe he has set out the challenges he faces and some of the future targets are not in the companies control, but they are getting in additional expertise to mitigate against some of the risks and have a good chance on staying with their plans.

I regard the project as a long hold.

Tony

RBW will give a presentation to shareholders next week. The finer detail of what they are doing at the back end plant should be revealed. A few weeks back iteration protocols to establish best results were being undertaken. RBW then need to sign off the flow sheet design as best of what they know. I am hoping to see some urgency in progressing the project. It can not roll on forever for somebody to complete a PhD.

Last year the profit above costs margin on silver was $6.50 per silver ounce. Silver contributes 50% of Fresnillo profits when adding on zinc and lead. At $26.90 an ounce the margin is up 50% or 25% increase in gross profit overall. Gold the other 50% is already above 6% on increased revenue going back to 1 January and is adding 30% profit at the annualised rate. The overall profit line may still be under 2022 levels, but is way above the figures seen in 2023. The off set is further appreciation in the peso, but that would need to be higher than what has occurred in 2023 to cancel all the increased profits. If the Mexico peso continues to appreciate it would smash up the Mexican economy and would decrease company profits for tax purposes and the Government would also run into fiscal difficulty. The central bank in Mexico is likely to cut again in May. The first cut at 0.25% had no impact and is still collapsing growth in the Mexico economy.