Member Info for Tornadotony

Cleverthoughts

I could not find any links that parallel what a lot of others have done to get Russian public monies. Polymetal has also operated to high standards for some time.
My previous comment was from reading the RNS which alerts to what will happen on 22 March. The next 7 days are critical. Either the talks between Ukraine and Russia deliver something that stop the war which saves Polymetal and as many have said here its several bagger rise or the fighting continues and things get really difficult and on top of that brokers would become ever more reticent to be earning funds with something having Russian associations to it. Polymetal would not delist officially as it has not gone bankrupt, unless it was put into default in having to pay debt interest at some point in the Russian currencies and Western banks called it a default and all of this was forced on the company. The alternative is rolling over debt and paying off from Kazakhstan profits as they accrue and the company limps on. The issue about trading after 22 March is the difficulty of getting in and out of positions and the risks they put on holders. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Tony

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/think-carefully-russian-investments-sunak-105336884.html

Someone wanted that link.

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

In theory it should still be in FTSE 250. The Chancellor gave a coded warning on Sunday. The message to the public was not to take new positions on Russian investments. So today I remained off and like it or not time is limited on playing around on this share. Liquidity might dry up tomorrow. What may happen is that for those holding it would be dead money for awhile until one day it may be investable again when a new regime exists in Russia. In the meantime 9 mines will be depleted of their assets for the benefit of who knows.

Of course what I have written excludes all the other REO that has to be added on top.

Pensana Rare Earths Plc (LSE: PRE, ASX: PM8) is pleased to announce a substantial upgrade to the Mineral Resource estimate for its Longonjo Project.

International mining industry consultants SRK Consulting has reported an upgraded Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource estimate of:

313 million tonnes at 1.43% REO including 0.32% NdPr for 4,470,000 tonnes of REO including 990,000 tonnes of NdPr

*NdPr = neodymium+praseodymium oxide. REO = total rare earth oxides. A 0.1% NdPr cut is applied. Tables 4 to 7 summarise the estimate at a range of cut off grades, material types, resource categories and individual rare earth oxide grades.

The upgraded estimate:

· contains more than 2.3 times the previous estimate of the Measured and Indicated resources used in the Preliminary Feasibility Study1 (announced ASX: 15 November 2019).

· has increased the proportion of the resources reported in the Measured and Indicated categories from 31% to 68%;

· and has increased the overall contained NdPr by 35%;

At a 0.2% NdPr lower grade cut, the Measured and Indicated Mineral Resource estimate for the Weathered Zone is:

39.9 million tonnes at 2.38% REO including 0.52% NdPr for 948,000 tonnes of REO including 208,000 tonnes of NdPr

A 0.2% NdPr cut is applied. Weathered Zone Measured and Indicated categories only, and is contained within and is a subset of the Total Mineral Resource estimate.

----------------------------------------------

If you take 208,000 tonnes of NdPr at 27% conversion rate through as reserves and then recovered after final production equals 14 years at 4,000 tonnes of NdPr through Saltend processing. The COOLA inferred resources have yet to be converted to resources but were expected to add a further 7 years to give 21 years of mine life. The 27% figure is highly conservative on conversion rate which in theory could be as high as 54%. However, the price variation in the market place is volatile and could range between $50,000 a tonne to $200,000 a tonne. Some may choose a 40.5% conversion metric with a mid-point $125,000 per tonne. After that you would need to run models on margin rates like at 33%, 25% and 17% to give different profit profiles and then you could estimate on enterprise values and pay back on the construction debt which is listed on the company website.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/can-tanzanias-new-president-repair-her-countrys-image

New leader trying to attract investment and improve nation's image.

A lot of costs such as currency hedging, procurement of diesel, supply of components, fleet procurement, purchase of chemicals for processing are all done in advance. The costs may arise further down stream during the year when re-orders and supply are needed. A key factor is demand destruction when inflation runs too far ahead and purchasing stops hence why it may pull back as business calibrates future product demand. For Egypt the price of wheat is a critical factor as a staple food supply. For this quarter and probably the next it is okay. It is possible that with UAE and hopefully Iran oil supply improving and USA covers its own needs and perhaps Libya and Nigeria holding up that the oil price and subsequently food prices rises will level off and the situation becomes more manageable. What is not known is new climate disasters or additional conflicts emerging. The company were wise in giving a high AISC range, they indicated it would narrow during the year as price visibility was better known and the ability to increase Centamin production was being delivered with more confidence. The company had an extensive economic assessment on all its processes and activities on-going. The solar plant coming on stream in June reduces 16% of all energy costs on the lower price figures a few months back. The savings on future higher energy costs will look even more impressive. In fact it might well justify a second solar farm being constructed.

FabPhil

In the short term we will have a study to be published that is likely to justify the business case of going into production in later part of 2023. You may wish to read the Sprott report on Rainbow Rare earths.
https://www.sprott.com/media/4870/220208-rbw-scp-processing.pdf

I personally agree with the assessment and see the current price as a reasonable entry. You can always put in 25% of your allocation and layer in further monies later when you weigh up all the risks.

Biden delivering now on the networks.

Blackrock declares $17B in funds within Russian companies on Bloomberg (earlier today) and they are certainly in quite a mess across numerous companies.

Capex, its the additional pressure it puts on Blackrock.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2022/03/01/biden-and-allies-are-coming-for-russian-billionaires-yachts-forbes-tracked-down-36-heres-where-to-find-them/?sh=3b8790164624

Just left on book. 135p order was fired off, but could not be processed.

Not me

Took profits at 153p looks like another wash cycle.

The wash is a price fall in the SP, the spin is trading sideways and the blown dry is the rise. resetting happens on the open and close. Its on this cycle from now on. Black rock are doing a lot of average downs.

Jeremy Blackrock will just sell more into the buying. This could go down to 120p for a wash and repeat cycle.

What is now happening is that nothing is what it really is made out to be. We have a lot of people riding on their high horses and pontificating to the masses and trying to forward an agenda that everybody should put up with more sacrifices. They are told to be grateful they have freedom, but yet their politicians deplete their own people of resources, deplete their abilities to have choice, limit the capacities of what they may do and where they can go. They now use economic weapons to redistribute wealth and limit the capacity to retain its value. They try to educate us on a moral value of sacrifice and in the meantime ensure they are the beneficiaries.

Whatever happens to Polymetal and many other transfers of wealth at this time, you can be sure it is one direction and that is in most cases from ordinary people to the most elite at that top. Follow the money and do not get distracted by all the dead cats that politicians and very elite everywhere are throwing on tables.

Our venture with Pensana.

Hi Anthony,



Thank you for your warm welcome and email. Apologies for the delay, I am now set up on email. I always appreciate hearing from investors so please feel free to contact me anytime. I am working from our London offices and can be reached as per below.



I am learning about the company, so it is helpful to hear your view on how things have progressed and more importantly, how this has been communicated to the investment community. Like you, I believe in transparency and keeping investors informed when we are in a position to do so. We will work hard to ensure our investor relations and communications strategy is given the same focus as other workstreams.



Thank you again for your continued support and patience.



Kindest Regards,

V