Member Info for Tornadotony

First one banked for this financial year.

Looks like the 65,000 shares of short interest taken out last Thursday or possibly Friday morning has closed out with quite a loss. The confirmation should appear in a couple of days time on Ortex. Looks as if the PP extension got played and we have observed the result.

https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.gov.uk/newplanningaccess/files/D305A9E50F2F3F95DF80F4C6FAC958FA/pdf/21_04695_CM-ENVIRONMENT_AGENCY-4341420.pdf

In latest RNS

Hopefully some of it finds it way to Pensana.

When one of the regular Squawk Box traders tells you he has ditched 14% of the portfolio that was in technology stocks to buy shares like Barrick Gold, you kind of know we might be in the right sector at the right time with stocks like Centamin. If they drop the price, shares will get bought and most people are not selling.

Sukari
5.7M reserves after depletion $140 per ounce = $798M
9.8M resources which has a 50% conversion rate historically x $40 per ounce= $392M
Assume $200m in the bank. $1390M
Approximately $50M for West Africa inferred assets = $1440M divide by 1.25 for pounds =£1152M enterprise value. Last Friday EV was £1060M.
Solar plant is brand new so add another £40M would give a share price value of 112p (It would deliver these funds in future savings in future mine depletion).

Eloro
In the original plan the stage of moving to NdO to metal was to follow the mine construction and Saltend building facility as a phase 2 development (Back in May 2021 Paul Atherley spoke about it). What has happened last autumn were two key changes. The first was potential supply of hydrogen to the Saltend facility that was not part of the first PP application and the second was that potential funders of this project back in September 2021 changed the rules on ESG to clamp down on green washing and proposed more stringent criteria. The company responded by changing tactics by allowing a growth pathway that incorporated the NdO to metal capability and using hydrogen as a carbon free source at some point at Saltend in a recycling process to comply with the new funding rules. It was clear this was imposed on Pensana by the banks and funding sources on how this sector was to be funded on the carbon transition process. Pensana did not change the rules, but was supportive of its direction and went on to follow them in the hope of attracting favourable financial terms. So Phase 2 has now been embedded in the development to fit with the new ESG rules. The supplier for the hydrogen as an energy source to Pensana is taking over the first Pensana site at Saltend as an addition to their originally PP site that was sitting alongside it as they need that space which is part of a huge development.

In the meantime the shares between the top 20 holders remains as before although around 400,000 shares moved from JIMS to Aurora. The evidence is showing a lot of people are waiting to see what happens. During the delays Pensana has completed FEED and this has ran on longer than they expected and some additional tweaking is on-going and will soon be finished.

Despite all this work, somebody has to agree a finance deal or reject the company requests. We do not know if the deals offered to Pensana were a rip off and were not acceptable to the Pensana Board and the AWF and the Government of Angola or just so complicated that they involve really long negotiations. Quite a few complaints have been made how the financial sector want to over charge the energy transition sector to compensate moving away from oil and other industries. The terms offered might be 100% worse then say if Pensana was an oil company wanting to develop an oil field off the cost of Angola. This is a sector wide issue and the financial sector is possibly failing to aid the delivery of COP26 and why Janet Yellen has been kicking the World Bank this weekend to get on with green ESG energy transition funding along with all the other essential infrastructure as they have just sat on their backside waiting for somebody else to make decisions to date.

Eloro we all know how you feel and what you think, being repetitive becomes pointless and does not change anything.

Needs to hold above 92/93p area for a higher low. If AAZ can rally next week a new rising channel will be created that has not appeared for some time. During May and June the company has a lot of important news. I suspect production may go go up 10-15% on the annual forecast and the price returns to 118p area. We shall see if the company delivers something like it as a positive surprise.

8.02 at 260 was mine. The up lift in gold price may take this back into 270's.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/04/europe-needs-to-rapidly-ramp-up-rare-metals-supply-to-meet-climate-goals/

https://kuchling.com/the-lassonde-curve-a-wild-ride/

Waiting for stage 4

Price goes up as soon as i put the orders on. So they are not overly keen to off load HOC.

More like 4p at this time or 4.4% yield on the current SP.

156p from 7.8p. 5,000 holding for every 100,000.

42trader is that buying gold or Shanta?

I listened to Eric's talk and he gives his valuation of the company at NPV of $500M, So we do the usual and halve it. $250M at say 1100M shares at some future date. Equates to 22.7 cents and so let divide by 1.20 as the pound is tanking in style with the lot leading this country and we arrive at 18.9p. We all love a bargain and the lowest I think we might get on a buy is 9.25p which might last for around 15 minutes on the intraday chart and that is gold below 1840. In the UK buying gold is already too late, but its probably not the case for platinum or silver. Unfortunately those two attract VAT as well as the buying premium. However, the way things are going it may still be a bargain when looking back 12 months from now.

A year ago I bought 20 blocks of salt for the water softener and it was delivered to the home for £82. Today I got the same 20 blocks from same retailer and manufacturer for £89 but I had to go and collect it. Call it 10% inflation. A year ago gold was $1779 per ounce and if matched the same inflation as a bag of salt it would be $1960. The inflation rate in USA is actually higher than the UK from what I have heard in price increases and more like 20%. At some point gold is going higher than $1886 or so from today. Its laughable that a bag of salt is inflated higher than gold.

Approximately 133,000,000 L of diesel goes to 113,000,000 L. So if it was a dollar per litre the solar farm pays for itself within 3 years. Will not be surprised if they decide to build another one.

Added more. 30% of the share price is cash they have in the bank. This share unlikely to be priced sub 100 in H2.

On the 118 handle. First time in HOC in years. Below 11 PE with a poor quarter in the rear view mirror. I think its the lowest price I have ever paid for this share. Can add more if retreats further.