Member Info for Tornadotony

Excellent reminder and summary JTD. AAZ in the draw for the time being as the storm today rages on all the other precious metal miners.

Another factor is that buys exceed sells on HOC. The volumes of trades on all the gold miners is below average. They are having a good shake, but a lot of people are holding for 2023.

Over $220M in the bank.

Slater

Nobody has a crystal ball. All of us are hoping for the best on how to play this. What Ii do know is that economies everywhere are blowing up. Small business closures are mounting. We shall many more Sri Lanka's happening as currency debasement arises. The two currencies gaining over everyone else are the US dollar and Russian rouble. A few countries are maintaining a PEG to them but most have devalued by over 16%. In the meantime USD debt is rising sharply and they won't be sustain their full employment with rate rises. Powell admitted that at the last rate hike.

As a general piece of advice do not go all in one stock, do not go all in with a single buy. This one pays a dividend. It has good prospects for the second half of this year from July onwards according to the CEO. It is what you think will happen to the gold price that is most important. Take time to read company presentations and the last few quarterly reports. Gold miners everywhere have tanked.

Am I deluded in thinking we have stagflation. Hopefully this is a bottom on Centamin.

Slater a lot of people also confirmed it was going lower this week possibly forming a bottom. The issue with higher rates this time (compared to 2013 etc is that Governments are massively in debt like 120% GDP and they are being hit with slowing GDP growth, high inflation and how do they service higher interest debt repayments. We have mega stagflation. This is a central bank mess.

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Around 473 you find first company under 10p.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/two-factors-could-drive-anglo-082354810.html

Published last week.

I have gone through the reserves and resources and the last several years of mining output. During 2021 they only mined out Gedabek to the reserve grade and appear to have conserved grades in Q1. The company has 4 years in reserve grade at 0.70 g/t for the Gedabek open pit. A similar picture applies to the Gadir underground which is being mined at the reserve grade last year and took lower grade ore during Q1 against the reserve grade.

If production was the same as in Q1 for the rest of the year than CDs outlook is correct. If the company delivers on what it says the maximum debt is around $10M

If the production at 12,000 ounces has an AISC of $1760 = $21.12M
At 18,000 ounces the AISC total was $23M the cost per ounce drops to = $1277 AISC.
At 20,000 ounces the AISC at $24M drops to $1200.

Lets assume AISC continue to waiver tax on revenue as an off set would give save $10M profit per quarter. The $20M additional income caps the debt at $10M not $25M and allows for dividend payments.

84.4p

The previous valuation was just on gold and does not include 1M tonnes of copper listed as resources. Last quarter they sold 1,440 tonnes of copper for $3.2M. So the company is massively undervalued.

Someone dumped earlier to take out two support lines. It has drifted down from 108p to 82p in 3 weeks. Some pull back was expected as arose elsewhere but this should have held 88-90p. The company has $26-$30M in the bank. It has started the first quarter on low grading which many other miners have done. Other companies are giving guidance for H2 but AAZ has said nothing. The company is undervalued. We do know Zafir will be developed to come on line next year. The company is below the lows of Covid-19 at the darkest time and is below levels at the height of the war when the gold price and copper price were well below today's prices. The new Hasan vein should bring them back to last year's production and earnings. Most of their energy cost is from the grid.

For the IMF its working with central banks. It has been a long process of systemic thinking in delivering future change.

https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/green-finance

My last note for this evening.

Management teams find these useful. Researchers use the tools to deliver evidence, Administrators take that evidence and deliver cohesive arguments to acquire funding to create entirely new programmes for private sector/ndustrial and public sector funding. The IMF tool creates others that are developed in far more detail, but it allows individuals to work from something that is not a blank sheet of paper when they are seeking a political decision to get something done.
https://infrastructuregovern.imf.org/content/PIMA/Home/PimaTool/C-PIMA.html. The ATF for example was probably created by someone guided by tools.

https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/13/the-right-labor-market-policies-can-ease-the-green-jobs-transition/

Hopefully Pensana will get help in training up the Saltend future workforce. Someone at Pensana needs to get that in the diary as soon as its likely that funding will proceed. Its useful to know what incentives the government provides to funders who support transfers into green jobs.

Rich
Take 220,000 tonnes per quarter at 2.92 g/t as an average for 16 quarters uses all reserves after this year's depletions allowing for the recovery rate (which loses 2 quarters worth of reserves that have been taken off). Any additional life is then based on resource conversion. Tony

What I meant to say was that shares are issued and the share price is reduced as an alternative to bank loans.

TSAE

Going back to Blue Rock Diamonds, they have never made a profit. The issue here is that once the mine is built will the company just run up more debt from nickel they sell and it is at that time the issue of consolidation is a factor and they do so as to not to add to the original mine debt. These are issues to take up with the company perhaps to explore how this may go.