Member Info for Tornadotony

As expected gold now getting hammered. Next stop 1960 area.

As expected gold now getting hammered.

Expecting some hits this afternoon.

TGL

What are AWF and MG going to do. They own over 38% of the company. If nobody provides the package of funding what is MG and AWF next move as more debt accrues. The previous raise was to pay what was owed up to 31 March.

USA Treasuries and gold stabilise pre-market.

No chance of getting a bond deal for a company of this size when USA is playing a game of chicken on defaulting. Strategic could not make any decision either in these circumstances. Again the company is running out of money.

Expecting pullback to test 105p support line probably tomorrow. Still out of AAZ, but hope to re-join in due course.

The physical buying was in the jewellery trade rather than central bank activity in the previous missive.

When Bloomberg pump gold it is always as far as I can remember at a top in price as they did so last week. The caveat clue was that physical buying in both India and China had fallen away in the last 3 months. Today USA treasuries broke out from down trends and gold now retreats. It will be interesting to see how hard the gold price pulls back. Will hold my rather modest Centamin position and see how this plays out.

Https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/charts?s=US2YT

Gold goes down.

If folks are selling 100% in and out this is the wrong share to do it for the reasons others have already given. Taking some chips off the table and having some buy back capability is standard risk management of an investment position. It gives one confidence that resources are available to cover whatever the market does and it can make anybody look like a fool at times. Longer term Shanta is looking strong, but some headwinds could appear on the horizon. Keep an eye on the two year Treasury USA yields. Gold price is particular sensitive and we can see what happened in Q1 on looking at gold price and what that treasury charts revealed. Some of the Elliott waves analysis are also focussed on what is happening on USA Treasuries and especially the 2 year which is FED sensitive. If the pitch goes against gold and subsequently against Shanta the share price can retreat and do not be fooled into thinking the odd buy can stop what the tape on the share price will do. Just make sure to have some cash in reserve to deploy like some of us already have as the opportunity to improve positions when things do turn in golds favour. Traders buying on an important support line are the investors ally. Hence why we should not get annoyed with each others strategies at different times if we are traders or investors.

Tony

Directors talk appears to be asterisked out

https://*************.net/mining-journal-select-london-2023-delegate-highlights-pensana

Loads of people put a buy share price on the order book and put loads of sell trades a few pence away from 140-142p area as well.

Trades volumes have died here since 6th April. The highest daily volume was 300k. So the days of 1M to 6M trades ended and we have a collapse in trade volume. Flatness happens when hardly anyone is buying or selling stock. Most days the volume is below 150,000 shares. I have seen days when total trades for the entire trading day including UT trades were in single digits. What is remarkable is the spread is only 2p which suggests that we have a buyer and a seller of equal weight that have squared off the position between them. If they do nothing we prefer to stay flat ourselves.

The volume of trades is tiny and hence why there is little action. Nobody wants to sell and quite a few people are waiting to see if a recession appears so they can get a better buy price. It is a stand off.

TGL

Heidelberg Cement is also getting a lift this morning. However put longer time frames on the charts and one perhaps takes a different view. I remember a German investor telling me that you know things are going down in their country when people no longer want cement and they looked at HC share price. Iron ore was dropping yesterday as well. Maybe I may miss out on a sharp May time rally. Maybe I am completely wrong. However, I have managed the downside risk as far as I am concerned. I have enough in the market for any upside,but have plenty of firepower if it all goes wrong.

Tony

TGL

I sometimes read Jessies Cafe Americain and I sense something is about to seriously break in the market. The article on 10th May gave some interesting advice. The number one position in my portfolio is cash at 44%. West Pacific Bank shares blew up yesterday in the market. A number of organisations were strongly against the latest round of interest rate hikes. I have a gut feeling that central banks want things to break.

I have taken significant profits from Centamin and now 95% out. I am holding Shanta Gold with production set to increase by 45%. I am holding Nanoco which is trading below its Samsung cash payment next February (company trading below its projected cash in the bank) I am holding HZM which is mainly owned by Glencore and other big industrials. I am ready for things to hit the fan and any losses to be had on other holdings can be useful to off set capital gains tax.

If I am wrong then so be it. The commodity sector is giving serious red flags to the market.

This is now likely to stop funding activity throughout the market until resolved. Dimon has warned of panic in the financial sector if the USA politicians carry on with a threatened default on its debts.

The USA high graded its fracking oil fields twice to undermine Saudia Arabia and OPEC oil producers. In the end they went bankrupt twice and now nobody will high grade a fracking gas field. It is not just socialist systems that have failed with such resource management policies.