Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
3 bear,
The rally was very stable up to 20 March. Beyond that time frame it started to become over extended and not just a spring seasonal rally. On 2 April the rally was approaching $2300 spot price which should have been a top with a 14.5% rise but then it started to go parabolic. The momentum then hit 17% rise at 2350 spot price where only a handful of rallies have surpassed this. The peak was around 20%. The rally started on 12 February. Central banks (especially India and China were behind the move from 12 February to 29th February) and published data of late shows this was the case.
The concern some of us have is that the rally was taken over by Options traders and they have to take physical delivery on 25th April. I therefore believe the answer to your question will soon reveal itself. My belief is that part of the rally is permanent and it needs to retreat to a level to attract buying in the physical market for delivery. Over the course of 2024 we may get more rallies and pull backs. The jewellery market has to restock gold at a price where they can sell it later on and it just takes time for the physical market to absorb increases. Otherwise we get bear markets in gold later on. Tony
Good news for the longer term.
Gold has been taken higher again tonight and all the overbought on daily and weekly were returned as they were before at the peak on Friday. What I am concerned about is what kind of bad news will soon unfold and be shared with the general public.
Tibbs if Israel does something stupid, the West alliance will not follow the Israeli Prime Minister down his new rabbit hole.
Strongest support lines are at 2010, 2047 and at 2119.
2332 is the standard deviation support line.. 2320 and 2311 are additional support lines. We have to see how well the market in gold holds up if they get challenged which I think is likely.
Https://www.aiinsightmedia.com/rare-earth-metals-ai-semiconductor/
Https://www.aiinsightmedia.com/rare-earth-metals-ai-semiconductor/
Oops double checked what I thought was a gap at 95p area is not the case. Misread the data point. Ignore last one.
127.9 to 129.5 gap is closing.
121 to 121.6
112.9 to 113.6
109.3 to 110.9p
95.2p to 95.8p (this one may take a long time to close).
Gold Options close in 10 days. Physical delivery at these high prices is either taken up (good for miners) or it is not. The reality is buying gold coins and bars has stopped. Jewellery restocking has mainly stopped. Central banks have stopped buying gold at the current levels. If the price is based on paper options only, this is a tricky market for gold as it has disconnected with wider physical buying.
I am happy that we have a diversity of opinions on what happens next.
`Gold Options close on 25 April. China Shanghai Gold market has put restrictions in place on gold trading contract size effective on Asian market open tonight 2 am UK time.
2281-2285
2257-2267
2238-2249
2187-2193
2170-2175
I believe in gap filling and appreciate not all readers care about it. The rally closed on the monthly resistance line going back to 1980. Again I look at charts and others do not. Gold now in a consolidation phase for the coming weeks imop. Bottom target I have for gold is possibly around $2120 per ounce. Long term channel support has moved beyond $1800 per ounce and is increasing with time.
Https://www.metalsdaily.com/archive/archive/ross-norman-where-the-buying-is-coming-from-/352537
Https://www.metalsdaily.com/archive/archive/ross-norman-where-the-buying-is-coming-from-/352537
Steve I give up. Commodity input prices such as oil and silver are way up this month so they rally on older data when they were lower and drive commodity prices higher.
Mr Tibbs,
I could not agree more with the reforms that are needed in that article. We have politicians and bankers effectively writing their own contracts on how they serve themselves rather than the populations which they should be privileged to serve.
Tony
Daily at 83 and weekly at 75. Centamin is heavily overbought.
For this month gold has put in a peak imop. The problem is that the physical gold market in jewellery and the coin and bar buyers has practically halted as jewellery makers look for lower prices as a buffer on future sales and private investors buy in dips instead of a top of a rally. On top of that major factors holding USD down has just given way.Central banks buying of gold is closing out for the time being. Paper gold does not help miners in the real physical market some one has to take delivery. Finally when you get pie in sky media prices on gold it is a big red flag that the top is usually in.
Interesting to see how things pan out today. USD continues to break out versus yen. First interest rate cut by FED is now Q4 with a tiny chance given for September. Two planks helping gold rally are now out (they are likely to return a few months from now). If geo-political is the only thing holding it up then it would need to reprice to a degree to match that level of risk which is probably lower than $2350 an ounce.