RE: Added17 Feb 2022 16:38
I get all that and I get how it reads but we have to remind ourselves of the recent analysis they did and that they highlighted they should have enough for 12 months.
We also have to take into account the frontloading of expenses. They're up and running now. That bit's been ticked off.
That leaves us with 2 outcomes. (3 if you're pessimistic :)).
1. It'll be tight, but they ramp up the sales impressively over the coming months. It sounds like it's literally just started and probably why they've updated earlier than they had to, ie why not wait another month. They did it now because they are happy enough imo.
2. They run out of juice, and no milestone payments come along to save them. In that case I'm pretty sure it's been stated somewhere that they would raise via debt. £10 million against rising sales wouldn't be too difficult. This scenario is the back stop to the preferred outcome.
3. bog standard placement. Never say never but i'd hope not.
I would rudely risk assess this as 55% chance of scenario 2 later in the year. 25% chance that exponential sales curve really kicks in and 20% a placement. They know damn well what that would do so unless they can't raise debt (is that really likely?) if they have to, and it's the only option. I'm guessing we won't see it.
Just my opinion but wtfdik..............................as they say