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Yeah very interesting stuff it went on to say high/low fair values of between £1.50-£5 per share. This is without taking into account the neodymium etc so we are really looking strong.

I’ve asked chat gpt to run the numbers based on monazite recovery levels similar to those of other miners

Below is a fully adjusted, investment-grade rewrite, now incorporating:

Realistic monazite extraction rates (0.01%–0.05%)

Low / High metallurgical recovery (60% & 80%)

Realistic cost of sales (processing, separation, transport, offtake discounts)

Clear distinction between gross in-situ value and net by-product contribution

I’ll keep assumptions explicit so you can stress-test them.

Kasiya Monazite – Heavy Rare Earth Economics

24 Mtpa ore | realistic recoveries | cost-adjusted

1. Base Assumptions (Explicit)

Mining & Mineralogy

Ore throughput: 24 Mtpa

Monazite in ore:

Low: 0.01% → 2,400 tpa

High: 0.05% → 12,000 tpa

REE Composition of Monazite (from announcement)

Dysprosium (Dy): 1.7%

Terbium (Tb): 1.2%

Yttrium (Y): 11.9%

2. Contained REEs (Before Recovery)

Case Dy (tpa) Tb (tpa) Y (tpa)

Low monazite (0.01%) 40.8 28.8 285.6

High monazite (0.05%) 204 144 1,428

3. Metallurgical Recovery Scenarios

We apply:

Low recovery: 60%

High recovery: 80%

🔹 Low Monazite Case (0.01%)

Recovery Dy (tpa) Tb (tpa) Y (tpa)

60% 24.5 17.3 171.4

80% 32.6 23.0 228.5

🔹 High Monazite Case (0.05%)

Recovery Dy (tpa) Tb (tpa) Y (tpa)

60% 122.4 86.4 856.8

80% 163.2 115.2 1,142.4

4. Pricing Assumptions (Conservative Realised)

Spot oxide prices are not realised by miners.

A realistic assumption for a mixed or partially separated REE stream is 30–40% of spot after:

Separation & refining

Transport

Offtake discounts

Financing / marketing margins

Assumed Net Realised Prices (≈35% of spot)

Element Spot €/t Net Realised €/t

Dysprosium 850,000 300,000

Terbium 3,600,000 1,250,000

Yttrium 270,000 95,000

5. Cost of Sales (All-in, By-product Basis)

Typical costs for monazite / REE by-product streams:

Physical separation & cracking

Chemical processing

Transport & export

Royalties, admin, offtake fees

Assumed All-in Cost:

€30,000–€50,000 per tonne of recovered REO

For modelling clarity:

Low case: €50k/t REO

High case: €30k/t REO

6. Net Revenue Outcomes (After Recovery & Costs)

🔹 LOW MONAZITE (0.01%), 60% Recovery

Gross REO revenue: ~€88m

Cost of sales: ~€11m

Net contribution: ~€77m p.a.

🔹 LOW MONAZITE (0.01%), 80% Recovery

Gross REO revenue: ~€118m

Cost of sales: ~€13m

Net contribution: ~€105m p.a.

🔹 HIGH MONAZITE (0.05%), 60% Recovery

Gross REO revenue: ~€440m

Cost of sales: ~€45m

Net contribution: ~€395m p.a.

🔹 HIGH MONAZITE (0.05%), 80% Recovery

Gross REO revenue: ~€585m

Cost of sales: ~€55m

Net contribution: ~€530m p.a.

7. Summary Table (What Really Matters)

Scenario Net Annual REE Value

Low mono / low rec ~€75–80m

Low mono / high rec ~€100–110m

High mono / low rec ~€380–400m

High mono / high rec ~€500–550m

8. Strategic Implications for Sovereign Metals

These values are incremental by-product cash flows, not prima

Yeah very significant but until we have the figures no one knows what fair value is for the share price.

This find could mean further delay to the dfs which may give opportunity to Hoover up chea shares if interest waned in the interim

@esduk

I stand corrected I misread the below statement

Total rare earth oxide was analysed for in magnetic heavy mineral concentrates produced from aircore drilling samples during laboratory analysis for rutile

So we still need to know what percentage of magnetic heavy mineral concentrate occurs per tonne of ore before we can find out how big an effect this will have for us.

@SomeIdiot

I tend to agree but if the further drilling does find similar levels throughout kasiya then we are seriously undervalued more so than we already were with just the rutile and graphite in the public domain.

@esduk from what I’ve read the percentages in the tables of the rns were taken from 1.5kg drill core samples.

Which would suggest more similar to unprocessed ore. The rutile and graphite elements are probably in the table aswell although admittedly I’ve not checked that I was just looking for the chemical symbols of the rare earths

EDIT

turbium should read (18 grams) 12kg per tonne of ore

Further to previous I’ve done some brief calcs based on figures from the rns.

So each of the two sample sizes were 1.5kg

Average percentages of each element as follows

Dysprosium oxide 1.7% (25 grams) 16kg/tonne of ore

Terbium oxide 1.2% (12 grams) 12kg/tonne of ore

Yytrium oxide 11.9% (178 grams) 118kg/tonne of ore

If we find the samples to be similar throughout Kasiya we have 1800 million tonnes of ore. The intention is to mine 24 million tonnes of ore per year.

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think that means potentially

384000 tonnes of dysprosium oxide current prices around 326 billion dollars

288000 tonnes of terbium oxide current prices around one trillion 36 billion dollars

2832000 tonnes of yytrium oxide current prices around 6 trillion 480 billion

per year for 25 years mine life

I suppose the fact we have so much will shift the prices a bit lower but I think we can still be safe in the knowledge that the sp should go up from here quite a lot

My point is if we can sell the DY, TB, YT in concentrated forms the price per tonne is so high that they often quote by the kilo

whereas if we have to sell it as monazite then the cost is less at $8500/tonne.

Will be very interested to see the percentage of monazite in the tailings and also whether we have the expertise to turn the monazite into individual rare earth elements. The end of the rns which talks about next steps appears to suggest thats exactly what they are doing! lets hope this monazite appears allover kasiya!

Does anyone know the likelihood of being able to extract the rare earth elements from the monazite?

When you look at our target yearly ore output and subtract the rutile and graphite to give the tailings figure the percentages of rare earths left over ie the 2.9% and 11% give crazy numbers.

I should imagine even if we were to sell the unprocessed monazite it is still big big money

So basically they’ve called for FM in order to get the plant up and running then shipping product before the 6 months is out at which time they won’t need to worry about canmax as everyone will be happy as they are producing?

Mine construction never happens without teething problems.

The main thing is we know we are funded now by the placings so will be making a profit soon enough.

It would appear that with only 303838246 shares in issue the share price if 5 million is indeed the figure to be distributed should be closer to 1.6p

After the recent bad press the board will likely be wanting to reduce damage to the share price. By making updates like this following a drop they are able to put minds at rest and reassure people that they are still working as hard as ever.

I don’t see how anyone could look at this rns in a negative light granted there’s no actual drill results but it’s a show of confidence all the same

Kodal minerals had a very similar situation, getting their mining license took an age. I think like anything within a government things have to be looked at in great depth and passed through various levels of bureaucracy. Similar to the planning system in the U.K. we need thousands of houses building yet it still takes months to get a decision.

Rns from 9th sept says m&g are already out?

I wonder if an off take for construction costs style agreement similar to that at Atlantic lithium/Piedmont will be the route they hope to take. Definitely a positive movement and I’m sure a reputable company wouldn’t enter into an mou with us if they didn’t have a plan to get us to production.

Interestingly a lot of the smallish cap lithium miners are moving well lately ALL KOD PREM, wonder if a big government investment or scheme to get these lines producing could be coming?

Would appear something is brewing.

Has the sabotage of the nordstream pipelines caused a general downturn on German stocks? When I saw this was down today that’s what I assumed?

It’s a case of keep buying. We are in a better position than when we were at ath. The current market is a difficult place for small caps because there’s alot more risk averse people around than in the middle of covid when everyone was having a dabble.