RE: Substack update on I3 from a feller I like13 Jan 2024 08:27
First off Gear is not a great example - yes they are undertaking a strategic review but zero evidence that it has worked so far - early days I know but I suspect the end result will amount to not much other than spending a fortune in fees at your favourite investment bank.
Gear Energy's financial performance has been very similar to i3e's over the last several years - perhaps a fraction better - but given that they are nearly 50% Oil versus i3e at 22% Oil - this indicates to me that their operational performance has been considerably worse than i3e's. Had i3e been 50% Oil - there would have been no dividend cut and the SP would be be considerably higher than it is now.
Looking at where both companies sit now - I would argue that i3e has considerable more potential. Its reserves including reserve life index are considerably higher as is overall production i.e. it has more scale than Gear and unlike Gear does not need to add to reserves. I3e also has more gearing to gas which has been a considerable drag on performance over the last 18 months but the macro looks considerably better going forward.
It is not representative to look at a discrete period (which you are doing) which happens to be the same period as Gas crashing from multi year highs 18 months ago (CAD 7.30 / GJ) to multi year lows in December 2023 (CAD 1.80) and then judge Management / Management Strategy as a failure. Increase the window to when i3e pivoted to Canada (just over 3 years ago) and it tells another story i.e. a company with zero revenue, zero production, zero reserves and over $30m in debt - compare that to what i3e is today. Something that I think gets overlooked is that i3e are in a stronger position now than they have ever been - lower net debt than the Liberator days, more cash, strong earnings, an untapped debt facility and 22 years plus of 2P reserves. The only real thing that has changed over the last 18 months is softer oil and gas prices.
Exactly what strategy are you advocating - previously it was drilling out the acreage as are the authors of this article you are peddling. Most in the industry including Nuttall (and Phil Hodge - recent CEO article I posted here) are saying "drill baby drill" is a poor idea at current valuations and low oil and gas prices and that investor returns are the way to go. So please outline the strategy you think i3e should follow - I'll go and get the pop corn and get ready for this interesting read.