Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Pmanual - yes absolutely. You put out a forecast and most not if all would hope / expect a beat. Shares almost always react negatively to a miss in financial forecasts.

When I worked as a PM - my forecast were always conservative to ensure I met or exceeded target and that’s how I’ve observed most Companies to operate.

Forecast like I3E and you might as well shoot your self in the foot.

Rehaur,

You may be right but you need to remember the 2022 program was only doubled half way through May when WTI was around $105 - $110 and moving higher. So a lot will depend on the Oil / Gas prices and outlook at the time they publish the Capital Program. They may do similar again I.e. an H1 program that can be reviewed later in the year.

I agree the update was great with the exception of the NOI guidance and I don’t think there is a problem with the number (it’s good imo) - the problem is I3E’s forecast which was poor in my opinion - they need to review how they do this in future because the results including NOI are good but it’s a miss against their forecast which was poor - some people would say an own goal.

6 months or so we were talking about coiled
Spring mode - the spring is tightening again - things have never looked better with an excellent Q4 and beyond to look forward to . (we had a bit of a blip with Serenity but it doesn’t negatively impact the SP going forward and at least brings more clarity to the situation - I.e. most have written it off so if they do manage to get some value out of it - it’s all upside albeit much smaller than we previously hoped).

I3E’s continued success is all but assured baring a collapse in oil and gas pricing.

You knew the actual Oil Prices in Q3 plus the actual a third the way through Q4 - what else do you need?

What about the dumb ass that said “keep the faith …$200m NOI”

I know some on here take offence at PI’s daring to make suggestions what Management should be doing - but this is what I would I would be thinking.

I would be looking to increase production +/- 20% year on year with a corresponding 20% increase in the base dividend (all other things being equal such as the POO).

So at 25,000 boepd - I would be looking to add about 5,000 boepd plus another 2,700 boepd to take care of natural declines - total 7,700 boepd.

If you look at the well costs - they are about $9,500 to $11,500 per boe depending on whether you are talking about Clearwater or Simonette. Taking $10,500 as an average - this would equate to about $80m for the year.

So a slight reduction on 2022 which gives them more room to pay special dividends or buy back shares whilst still allowing a 20% increase in the base dividend.

I hope this meets with Barnyards approval !

Stas - I actually had it a lot closer to the $170m - but I used some pretty optimistic numbers for Q3 production along with Oil & Gas pricing . I would share the spread sheet but I’ve had a catastrophic computer malfunction and need to go to an IT specialist to see if I can recover the files. Anyway good news is that they should meet or better the
Number in Q4.

“We will end the year well above 24k...and around the 200m NOI
Keep the faith....”

Get those batteries in your calculator checked out Gusto !

Still a very solid report though I’m not sure how the market will like the NOI number. As I’ve said before they screwed up the Q1 update - I could never see how they got to the $240m number and it been evident for a couple of months at least that $200m was not realistic either - the wells are taking longer to bring on line than they originally expected (imo) and the $200m clearly needed oil prices in excess of $100.

The good news is that the numbers are still good and we remain cheaper than our peers. Also as can be seen there are plenty of wells still being cleaned up and to be brought on line in Q4 - I would expect production to be a lot closer to 25k than 24.

Joe,

Don’t mix up opinion with facts - I think you could pretty much delete your entire post upon umpire review.

If it’s good enough for gusto then it’s good enough for …. well emm……you know what I’m saying!

Joe - as usual - I think your off the mark.

Hotchip - i’m not sensing any panic - just a sense of disappointment that they look like they are not going to deliver an update when they said they would - and not for the 1st time I may add.

“0nly need the latter when there is something of value or note to report” - I think you will find yourself in the minority Barclays !! It’s called delivery - Companies gain credibility when they deliver. We’ve had a couple of low par deliveries recently ( in cricket the’re called no balls). It’s time for a couple of Yorkers!

Is that right Selfish - Didn’t Oddie say that he hoped that the additional drilling “would be within a year or TWO I would hope”. So either gas monetisation within two years or the two are not connected.

He said “towards the end of the month” which naturally most PI’s would interpret as before the end of the month. Sloppy on his part imo - if he’s going to give a target - meet the target.

Also I don’t think their waiting for 3rd party wells - pending results are all I3E operated wells. Delay is more likely for some other reason such as still waiting for the Simonette Wells to clean up or something else to pad out the update.

Q3 report will give average for the Qtr, end of Qtr production as well as post period numbers as of the date of the report.

Who’s the idiot?

I did email them a week or so ago and asked when they plan to update the market on Serenity - it sounded like a month or so. They said it will take a couple of weeks to do the in-house analysis with the help of an outside consultant and if they have something - it would take a couple of weeks for the reserve auditor to review / evaluate.

My spread sheets says there going to miss NOI target by +/-$15m (that's the bad news if my maths is up to scratch)

The good news:

1) I think we will achieve production targets in the Q3 update and NOI targets in 2023. I think i3e just were way too optimistic in their Q1 update and have been playing catch up ever since against a falling oil price

2) Despite the NOI discrepancy - our valuation remains in the 2 to 2.5 x CF range which makes us cheap.

3) Based on $90 WTI and December production - they should be able to bump up the 2023 dividend.

Interesting little article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547661-oil-obvious-now?mailingid=29437120&messageid=must_reads&serial=29437120.1247028&utm_campaign=Must%2BRead%2BOctober%2B20%2C%2B2022&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads

Dartron,

Yes and no - more no than yes.

1) a 7% dividend and growing or if not - the SP is growing - the dividend make a difference !!

2) "I guess it boils down to this is no longer a high growth stock" - I disagree:

a) Production looks like it will have grown from around 19,500 boepd in January to a projected +24,000 boepd in December. Is that not high growth ? I know that oil is down a little over H2 that has impacted FCF but the outlook is promising going forward

b) Simonette (South has the potential to add another 20,000 boepd in the next 4-6 years - 60% Oil. That probably translates to a tripling of revenues.

c) North Simonette has a potential 12,000 boepd development

d) Clearwater - they have a large position in clear water - 100% oil with supposedly the best economics in the whole of North America.

Please let me know if you've identified a better investment in Oil & Gas than this ?

This is not BP - this is a junior oil with serious growth potential. The dividend could potentially grow by 50-100% in the next couple of years with the SP doubling or more.

A little strange for an investor with many many years of investment experience to say Dividends don’t matter much to him particularly being invested in a dividend paying stock with a current yield of 7%.

As for not knowing the future plans of the company - we’ll if you haven’t looked at any of the presentations or the interviews - you won’t know, but anyone that has will have a pretty good idea. As a recap for you as you seem to read the posts on here but not the company presentations:

1) Company will look to pay out up to 30% of FCF in dividends
2) in a +$60 -$65 oil price environment they will look to drill out their prime acreage with a focus on the Simonette, Clearwater and Central Alberta Glautenitic Assets.
3) The’re looking at a possible farm-out of Simonette in order to develop using others money
4) They’re looking at opportunistic acquisitions as they present themselves
5) Excess funds above and beyond Capex and Dividends - they will look to return to Shareholders via buybacks , bonus dividends or additional acquisition's

So what else do you need to know VMAX - and what plans are you worried about this board derailing?.

violet.wilson@camarco.co.uk

Here’s an email address Gusto - Carmarco are responsible for I3E’s PR.