Member Info for tonynorstrom1

I wonder who has the biggest Cojones to come out first and explain all this - Majid or Oddie?

lets hope you are right for the sake of the small PI's which includes me but I don't see it at present. But thankfully we have i3e with better news in-bound.

EOG Wressle current Market Value----------------= 1.3p---------Broker Value = 2.4p
i3e Canadian Assets Current Market Value------= 24.5p--------Broker Value = 49.3p

I think you even said a few months back you saw eog falling to this kind of level in the case of a failed drill result. On a PE ratio / FCF Multiple - I think EOG is closer to fair value. The're ( I should say we - I hold shares) going to need some good news to move up and I don't see any on the immediate horizon unless we hear something positive on a Serenity development.

I3e on the other hand have a 3rd quarter update due in the next couple of weeks - I't could well be our most positive update yet.

or buy it now on the open market for 1.3p a share ?

"i3 Energy announced that the Serenity appraisal well in the UK North sea was water wet
and not oil bearing and that it will be plugged and abandoned. The company indicated that
the cost of the well net to i3 Energy will be under-budget at circa £5.6M. We reduce our
fair estimate from 66p to 49.35p to reflect the result (Table 1). For reference, our current
fair value estimate includes 49.3p of value for the company’s Canadian operations (based
on a conservative 5x EV/CF 2022 multiple) and does not include any value for the
company’s UK assets."

Well I misjudged Brendan - he didn't attempt to put Lipstick on the pig and talk about a potential development. Zero value ascribed now to any of the North Sea Assets !

He does however reiterate the quality of the Canadian Assets and allude to new price targets once i3e release results of the Canadian drills.

Well this is what i3e's broker made of it:

"i3 Energy announced that the Serenity appraisal well in the UK North sea was water wet
and not oil bearing and that it will be plugged and abandoned. The company indicated that
the cost of the well net to i3 Energy will be under-budget at circa £5.6M. We reduce our
fair estimate from 66p to 49.35p to reflect the result (Table 1). For reference, our current
fair value estimate includes 49.3p of value for the company’s Canadian operations (based
on a conservative 5x EV/CF 2022 multiple) and does not include any value for the
company’s UK assets."

So they have removed completely the value of Serenity. Above is just the summary - they dont even talk about the possibility of a small scale development.

Grey,

What's your take on the OWC and do you think they will have sufficient information to update the CPR and ascribe reserves?

not sure where the 2p came from. WHI's last valuation:

Canada 49.3p
Serenity 12.8p

Talking about WHI's - I'm sure we will have their take on the drill result shortly with the customary positive spin !

1) Only 11% down - not bad for a duster !
2) It could have been worse - You could have been invested in EOG like me and Stas20 !
3) All is not lost with Serenity - maybe some good news comes out of it with a real development option !
4) A stonking 3rd Quarter Canadian Update to look forward to - I would be surprised if that didn't restore our SP.

GLA

DS22 - A common misconception by many investors - the market prices in everything - they dont't necessarily get it right all the time but this is what they do.

With the current SP as of Friday of 27p -how much of that was Serenity (23p Canada - 4p Serenity ??) - no one knows - but in a few minutes we might have an idea.

"Data recovered from the well will be integrated into further reservoir modelling to optimise a development plan to exploit the reserves, proven up by the discovery well, in the eastern area of the structure."

I find this the above interesting from the RNS:

1) Officially there are no reserves - the CPR classifies everything as "contingent resources"
2) They're still talking about a commercial development.

Is there any new information from the well that allows them to book reserves and will a new CPR be issued to reflect this? They did not talk about the OWC and they drilled down to 5630 ft ?

The're still talking about a development option - so maybe not all lost.

Thanks for that Corky - really helpful.

"The initial drilling consent will normally provide for a spud, a single re-spud and a single mechanical sidetrack. Any further re-spuds or mechanical sidetracks should be raised quickly with the NSTA team and need separate applications."

This is from the "UKCS Well Applications and Consents Guidance" Document on the NSTA Website.

Who would Adam and Eve it - all this excitement on a Friday night - better than an episode of Emmerdale !

The original consent allows a mechanical side track and a re-spud providing the target remains the same - that's my understanding.

If its a second appraisal well - it needs a new application / consent and you would see that on the UK Energy Portal.

D2B - Thanks - its worth listening to again especially after reading the CPR.

It really doesn't change my mind - the CPR is dated after this interview and talks about uncertainties in the calculation including assumptions made by i3e in the water injection at Blake to help correlate the OWC. I hate to use the phrase "bottom line" and run the risk of Barnyards jumping in with his pearls of wisdom - but it boils down to who has got it right - i3e or the Reserves Auditor and I just don't know.

Anyway - the beer was great - I had one for you and watched the Sunset - what's not to like except for the update from Mr Drayton !

whatever the issue - good or bad - its likely to be considered "material" and hence we would likely find out by RNS.

Thank you Paul - its a puzzler - I guess we will find out soon !

I thought you had attached the link to the interview but it was the CPR so I'm not sure which interview you are referring to ?

Paul - you may have just spoiled everyone's weekend.

"Prelay Stena Don" - what does that mean Paul?