Member Info for tonynorstrom1

GGG - the production jumps are paying your dividend and they have already upped the dividend once this year so not sure at all where you are coming from.

I agree with one of the previous posters here that keep growing production - the SP will follow and also allow incremental dividend raises (provide oil price is supportive and the macro outlook is favourable)

Paul,

Not sure I agree 100% with what your saying - there's clearly Oil at SA-01 which extends someway towards SA-02 - whether it extends 500m out from SA-01 or nearly all the way to SA-02- I don't think anyone knows.

I agree almost certainly not cost effective to have placed SA-02 too close to the original discovery well and equally probably not going to be commercially viable or at least attractive to partners to drill another appraisal well unless something extremely surprising /unlikely comes out of the re-mapping.

Lets home there is sufficient information from the drill to convince Repsol that there is an attractive joint development.

As holders of both i3e & EOG - we both know that statement is incorrect:

https://www.europaoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20220706-Proactive-FINAL.pdf (page 11)

The well is located based on seismic interpretation - i'm pretty sure there are no experts here in that field that could of advised and avoided the "school boy error".

A lot of back seat drivers here and I don't recall anyone telling them that they put the well in the wrong place pre-drill.

Stas20,

You are correct - our production has traditionally been related to Edmonton Light (MSW) which as you say has usually been WTI minus $4-$6. This article relates to Heavy Crude which has been affected specifically by the SPR release which is also heavy crude and is pushing down prices. So I don’t think it affects us much although it’s possible that our discount has widened slightly. I did see in a report/presentation a few months back where I3e had stated their realized Oil prices and a quick back of the envelope check indicated to me the discount was about $7.50 - so larger than historical numbers.

How can you be sure Gusto - I dont think you have run any numbers.

Yes production will be up and it should be significant - however, Oil is down a little over 10%, same for NGL’s and Gas is also down a little. NOI in H1 was $89m so $111m + required in H2 driven largely by production gains. It could be tight!

I don't think that would work Stas20 - a more effective plan would be for someone to draft a formal email /template and then posters to make minor edits including their name (obvioulsy) and everyone email it in themselves.

Senseman did it on the HUR board to protest the proposed winding up of the Company and it seemed to have some effect. Posters would notify him when they sent in the email and he would keep tally. I think he managed to get 60+ posters to email in.

This board seems to be a bit more apathetic but lets see.

I'll update with an H2 forecast once we get the Q3 update. One thing to note from below is that i3e need to get on their bike to meet full year NOI of $200m with WTI currently $10 down on H1 average

---------------------H1-----------H2
Avg Prod-------18,776-----
Avg WTI-------$101.68-----$91.55
Avg Aceco-------$4.30-------$4.18
Ave GBP/$ ------1.299-------1.174
NOI (GBP)------£68.60m----
NOI ($)----------$89.14m-----
(DIV/FCF) %----27.5%-------

Vike1,

"These Alberta assets are outstanding and will flow for decades. But so will the wells from every other oily around them. And they all paying divis, and all are subject to lower tax rates than I3, so why bother?"

There's about 57 companies in the Canadian Oil and Gas Space:

1) i3e is cheaper than about 54 of them on a FCF yield basis - so its earning more money than its peers - that's one reason to bother

2) It has large land positions in some of the premier acreage in Canada including the Montney & Clearwater so that puts it a step ahead of its average Canadian Peer - that's the second reason to bother.

3) Its net debt free that puts it ahead of many of its Canadian peers - that a third reason to bother.

4) And they are not all paying dividend yet - check it out !

"The well is already present and would just need to be represented as a production well, which I assume means cement lining and some restructuring." - this assumption is wrong - Its "plugged and abandoned " as is the original discovery well

"its a straight money making project......... Gauranteed!!" - I think they have to redo the CPR and define the potential recoverable resources - then go to Repsol to negotiate a joint development plan assuming they have anything to negotiate with - so nothing guaranteed about it.

This is what Majid actually said : "so there is POTENTIALLY a viable development plan" - no use of the word guaranteed. He also said the actual size of the field now needs to be determined and will be substantially smaller than originally thought.

You’ve blown it Gusto - you had your chance - I just think your a bit too negative for the CEO role and as annoying as long play scratchy 45.

I'll take a look GGG and let you know - I assume you don't have any shares.

My last comment on buy backs because I have already talked it to death but the volume here has been pretty low and the shares have been drifting a bit. I think the impact of buying back 20m shares over say a 10 day period potentially could have been significant - most days the volume is only 2-3 m - so buying back 2m a day along with some PR telling everyone just how cheap i3e is might have done the trick.

Look whats happened today - Majid buys a couple of hundred shares and the SP has rocketed !

sorry misread the chart - 25% - but still significant outperformance even allowing for the Serenity news

ElSteve,

I'm not sure how you've gone about measuring the effectiveness of the buy-back progam at Harbour - there would be a lot of factors to take into consideration not least the fall in price of Oil from over $120 earlier in the year.

I don't know Harbour at all - but since you mentioned it - I pulled up the 3 months chart and compared to i3e. Harbour has outperformed i3e by 37% over this window - so perhaps the buy-back program has been more effective than you thought ?!

GGG,

The principle of buybacks is simple maths - the earnings per share increase in proportion to the shares bought back and has the advantage of it having a more permanent impact on SP vis a vis dividends where shareholders can jump in and out of a stock particularly special dividends where the impact is lost as soon as the dividend is paid out. Its all the rage in Canada - they cannot all be wrong !

The other thing with a dividend - you cannot keep increasing it forever - particularly with an oil stock - its not sustainable. You may have noted with the H1 interims that they were already paying out close to their target of 30% of FCF. The other thing of note is that WTI averaged nearly $102 in H1 v $92 in H2 so far. The last thing i3e want to do is increase the dividend to only have to cut it several months later. NGL's have also fallen back over the course of the year even more so than WTI.

We are expecting a Q3 update shortly where we hopefully will see a very significant uptick in production but I suspect that the end of year numbers will also show i3e paying out a significant proportion of their FCF target.

Dividends are great and i'm not favoring buybacks over dividends at all - I want to see dividends increased in a sustainable manner but once the level has been set - its difficult to cut where as with buybacks the company can commence or halt a but back program without the same expectation from shareholders.

Also not sure how a dividend program is easier to manage - I would have thought both are pretty easy and if anything a buyback the easier of the two. Anyway - your thoughts on the matter are well known so..........

Gusto - what do you think of share buybacks ? If its a thumbs up - can you add it to your list !

I think he's got wind that you might be challenging for his job and now he's stealing a few of your idea's . I wonder which of your remaining 5 idea's he will implement next - updated slides ?

talking about updated slides - anyone seen confirmation of the Proactive Interview with Majid today ?

“Is the discovery economic ? “ I guess the answer to that is no one here knows. EOG have already stated in interviews and presentations that they think that they already have an economic development with circa 10mmbbl already discovered. The basis of that statement is not clear as in the low case the reserves auditor has only attributed 2.5mmbbl of recoverable resources which in my opinion is unlikey to be economic. I guess we’ll find out more tomorrow from Majid. It seems more than likely that the only economic development is a joint development with Tain and that project has not been sanctioned yet by Repsol Sinopec. In order to proceed agreements will have to be made with Repsol and I would assume that they would want to see an updated CPR with economically recoverable resources. Let’s see what Majid says.

The dividend was increased earlier in the year and the current rate is 0.1425p per month.

So Gusto - are you in for the gig as CEO - let me know and we will get an online petition started. Run it by the missus tonight and see whether she fancies Calgary. Hey and remember cut out the swearing - when's the last time you heard a CEO say "FFS !"