The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
My view posted at the recent Q&A was that S&S should buy a chunk of shares before the General Meeting, and also commit to the £4m distribution/buyback as opposed to "plan to". Pleased they've finally done the first and await the second. I have also posted a message through the RBD website asking 2 things. What format will the new open communications process use. Secondly I am building a number of questions to ask the board in this spirit of better communications. How should I present these to the BOD. I posted that nearly two weeks ago. I haven't had any sort of reply yet. As I have siad before I am willing to give them the chance to improve things, but improve they must. Without this the next move on them and the company might well be a full bid at a knockdown price.
I plan to contact the company to ask what options they are considering to create clear, factual and unambiguous communication with shareholders. To my mind part of the problem is gaps in past communications which then lead to speculation to "fill in the gaps". Also where there is a perception that "facts" are spun such as the use of the Victory NPV10 , ultimately resulting in huge disappointment when the near £100m net to RBD in the March video becomes c£12m. This creates mistrust of the BOD and the latest new "facts". I do appreciate that we are never going to be party to market sensitive information, not least because that is illegal, but I am also conscious of how easy it is to hide behind that as a way of not communicating properly with shareholders. The company has said it will improve communications-let's see shall we. If anyone who likes this idea, and has any pertinent questions to ask would like to post them here, I will include them in my initial contact. I will share anything I get back with this BB.
Good points Novykluk. I look in on here from time to time, but less so when the levels of vitriol and pointless name-calling gets out of hand.
Picking up your forward-looking point about this BB, I believe we collectively have a chance to put together a series of questions to get to the bottom of some of the gaps in past communications from the BOD. Gaps lead to speculation. I don't know how we could co-ordinate this, and what the best means of putting the questions to the BOD, but if we agreed on say a top 10 list of questions, maybe starting with something like the whole NPV versus sale price issue. I believe the BOD will want to at least attempt to communicate better with all shareholders, even us minnows, after the requisition process. Just a thought.
I am a LTH and have been as frustrated as many others with S&S and the share price. They answered the two questions i asked at the presentation adequately-but. My points were focussed on the sudden incresase in communication to shareholders and the plan to use £4m to return to shareholders in some form, both since the requsition event. Will the increased level of communication continue if they manage to stay on? They say yes-easy to say-only time will tell. Also I have been concerned about the seeming drift away from the mantra of monetisation linked to returns to shareholders. They appeared to be moving to "growing the company", not the same thing. The plan to use the the £4m seems to have yanked the original plan back on track, albeit as a knee-jerk reaction to the pressure they've been put under/brought on themselves. I'd like to see two things BEFORE the General Meeting. A commitment to the £4m on receipt of the 2nd tranche of funds from the Victory sale, not just a plan. Also them both buying shares now to prove the words become actions. The "closed period" statement was a bit lame in my view. These are two actions they could implement now. It would send a very strong message before the meeting that they are listening and they plan to commit fully to better communication, shareholder returns and personal financial commitment. I hope this message gets through to them.
Hi all-I’m a LTH of both RBD and UJO. I look in here every now and then although less frequently recently as fed up with the personal mud-slinging and childish behaviour. When I did my own analysis a long time ago I estimated that the RBD sp could achieve 6p in the medium term. Lots of things bubbling under and things can go wrong but still holding and still believe in my investments here. I would like to see the first monetisation and a return to shareholders to prove off the implementation of the stated business model. Just my view and keeping the faith-so far.
I am a LTH in both RBD and UJO and believe that there is significant upside to both. But-there’s always a but-aside from the usual risks associated with oil/gas extraction and flow rates etc, I see other potential issues. I am a lot older than the Dynamic Duo and therefore my timescales for monetisation are possibly different to theirs. Also with the increasing pace of the world attempting to move to non-fossil fuel power there may well be a rush to maximise production of “old fuels”. These things never happen overnight but every move to new forms of power will reduce the need/price for coal, oil, and gas. Again it will be a very slow process. Hope I’m still young enough and with it to be able to enjoy the upside I believe is there.
A rise on the back of absolutely no news always makes me wary. I still hold onto the January issued timeline (with all the usual caveats) of CPR in July which Dave Bramhill said won’t be far out. Maybe an RNS between now and then but maybe not.
Re-timetable, I am still holding on to the words Dave Bramhill used in the March interview with Alan Green in which he said in reference to the timeline put out by RBD in January-“they’re not far out”. With all the usual caveats-things can change/slip, COVID difficulties, draft permits etc, I am hoping that the CPR is completed by sometime in July, and that this will give clarity on what we’ve got here. Any RNS’s on interim progress until then would be more than useful.
I can see both sides of this-putting out a timeline is potentially dangerous, even more so in the current environment. From the Q&A I got no sense that there were more permits required so that was an unhelpful surprise-maybe the exact question was not asked and therefore not required to be divulged. So I am of a mind to believe the timescales in the January timeline, backed by Dave Bramhill’s subsequent comment about it not being too far out, and see how this unfolds. I still believe July for CPR is key, with a weather eye on April and May estimated milestones to see what progress is being made. Hey-ho.
Based on Dave Bramhill’s comment last week that if you look at the RBD timeline from January you wouldn’t be too far off the mark re-timings then key dates would be roughly B1 test completion-early April, A2 test completion-mid May, CPR completion-early July. All the usual caveats on project timelines especially in COVID times but these are a critical 3-4 months. Exciting times.
Thanks-must admit projects I’ve been involved in show the start and finish as an activity. Still trying to get to the industry norm regarding provision of info. Start of an EWT? End of? No need? Or is this a wait ‘til release of a CPR?
TimelineToday 17:11
Posted this to the UJO BB just now. A question on process and timeline. From the RBD presentation in January if all is going to plan it seems to suggest the B1 well test would complete early April and the A2 test around mid May. Would either UJO or RBD expect to report either the start or finish of an EWT-what is normal practice for the industry? We’re any additional permits required to commence EWT’s that weren’t already in place? If not normally reported then any perceived silence would be standard practice no?
A question on process and timeline. From the RBD presentation in January if all is going to plan it seems to suggest the B1 well test would complete early April and the A2 test around mid May. Would either UJO or RBD expect to report either the start or finish of an EWT-what is normal practice for the industry? We’re any additional permits required to commence EWT’s that weren’t already in place? If not normally reported then any perceived silence would be standard practice no?
Good balanced post Miker and I agree with it all. I am a LTH and whilst I believe in the Dynamic Duo I also know that AIM is littered with failed enterprises which used the mantra “it’ll be great tomorrow”. This can make people jaundiced if there is a perception of slow progress. The times we’re living in are highly unusual so you can give a bit more benefit of the doubt, but.....monetisation is a carrot constantly dangled in front of us and with not enough solid news the share price flounders. My view for what it’s worth is the CPR forecast for July post the 2 EWT’s is a massive milestone. If it’s still “jam tomorrow” at that point I will have to re-think this share. Only my view and not trying to influence others.
I don’t understand why anyone responds to a post or poster who is peddling an agenda. It doubles the negative posts by keeping the post/poster engaged, and crowds this BB stopping the constructive/informative posters. Tiresome
Good post. I see this RBD year as key. Assuming the H1 timeline is met we could see a significant re-rate of the SP into H2. I think the issue with the SP in the short term is a belief that not much will change in the next 4 months or so, so why hold when you could use funds to get some growth elsewhere then jump in here in say June with the SP similar to now. I’m in AML where Stroll has put a marker up of between £120 and £180 SP in a few years time, then releases good news on a regular basis. It gives a sense of progress. RBD feels like it’s going to be a massive re-rate (assuming all goes swimmingly) in a short period of time. Any thoughts?