Member Info for tony2119

What’s the outcome / end game in dt selling up though?

Good call.

Some of the nonsense on here...listen, technical analysis is discredited. Looking at the share price and divining whether to buy / sell based on that info doesn’t work. If it’s worked for you before that’s because it’s a 50/50 coin flip and hey genius you called the coin toss right.

BT is being smashed because lots of people for a variety of reasons, many of which are legit and genuine, want Openreach spun out. Liberty, investment banks, the government - they want a split. Smashing the share price and encouraging activist investors onto the register is a way to do this.

I think it will happen and needs to happen and when it does the stock will be hugely rerated up. I think it will happen soon too because the government isn’t going to repeat it’s mistakes with water and endure a high dividend policy at the expense of capex investment. They will make it attractive for BT to split and turn the screws on mgmt to cut the dividend and snooker them into reviewing Openreach.

No what bojo wants us to turn his red wall toe dippers into permanent torys and for that to happen it would help if those folk got ftth ASAP and therefore the gov will create conditions to make it attractive for openreach to deploy ASAP in those less dense areas

Savings? Don’t think so, this was a splash the cash election with a get out of jail debt exemption for infrastructure related spending announced by Javid

‘Spend spend spend’ yeah agree so why on earth would anyone believe that Liberty will build a duplicate national network? But the share price is bring marked down on account of this threat and a bunch of other ‘uncertainties’

That was meant to be a thumbs up emoji not question marks

Thanks for sharing that ??

3rd Q ebitda down 4.2% vs 3.7% which I had in mind as market consensus...that’s how I see it anyway

Not great results. Ebitda down more than forecast.

Now out

Honestly it is a good sign

If it is true then the emerging regulatory framework for regional & rural areas is positive. Investment will be compensated through permissible pricing. Only a national network makes sense for Sky so it must be this, bells and whistles, not cities only

Clearly good for BT if it makes sense for Sky / Virgin to build, too

If not well then it’s not a problem then!

Cheers

It won’t happen. Or maybe it starts and they build a few miles to scare everyone. Question is does it push a BT / open reach separation closer

Yes. This is the best buy in the ftse 100 right now. It’s like the house builders a year ago. Even if sales are weak there is so much more to do on costs to underwrite earnings for years. Like the big grocers who basically haven’t grown volumes for years but have ripped out costs.

Also just ask yourself what matters to boris Johnson? Getting a good deal? No, look at HS2, they might still go ahead with that despitvit being a massive cash sink. No what matters is connecting all the deprived towns and villages in this country and eventually bt will get the terms they need to make a return on ALL ftth in return for signing up to do this at the speed the gov wants.

This’ll get taken out like Sky did. Sky was at 950, 1,000 end of 17 and then went eventually for 1,750. People were saying then too that their business model was dead - ‘cut the cord’ - but then the narrative completely changed.

Why hasn’t anyone bid? Because they don’t have to. But someone will, they are all just waiting for the others to make the first move. Once they do it’ll be game on. I don’t think banks are manipulating the share price though...

Is this the poster Up10 who predictably disappeared from the TW board once the shares rallied?

hahaha. great point.

I agree with you and would add broadcasters are suffering at the hands of the same narrative housebuilding stocks were facing only 3 weeks ago before Taylor Wimpey then Persimmon and then Bovis yesterday came out with upbeat trading updates and put the doubt to bed. Like ITV, there was very little market evidence for falling share prices in late 2018, data was solid if not strong and UK housebuilders are in rude financial health. As you all probably recognise when you observe huge daily price swings often for no apparent reason, the market is now beholden to narratives and when one grabs hold of a stock the falls can be steep. Eventually though a catalyst will break the narrative and there'll be a reassessment and the share price will rocket. I'm hoping that happens 27/02 at the next earnings update.

I agree with you. The NHS, education, tax rates and welfare policy. Knigel talks about destiny - the UK government could completely change the destiny of millions via its policy and spend in these 4 areas. The UK has unfettered control over all 4.

I'm sorry...the UK massively overrates itself. I moved here from Sydney 2 years ago and the amount of things that don't work. Your trains, public service, drones at Gatwick. Got the shock of my life.

You haven't had the nation humbling experience of losing two WWs or being a convict colony at the arse end of the world. And IMO you are a little delusional for it.

A lot of the chat was responding to naysayers. They are all cursing missing out and predictably have fallen quiet.

You want to be greedy but not too greedy. The Motley Fool was advising punters to wait till housebuilders fell to NAV, so ~£1 for TW. Too greedy.

Very strong. Shares will fly this morning