Member Info for tony2119

Good point can’t really argue with that. As much as I think this is s strong buy. And Brexit news will ramp up once again next week and if the trading update is poor...

https://www.pbctoday.co.uk/news/planning-construction-news/construction-pmi-high/49793/

Relax. We are all in a bubble because we own TW and make things worse by subjecting ourselves to chat rooms.

In November housebuilding was strong. Unemployment remains low, finance is easy to get, interest rates are low. And it looks increasingly like there won't be a no deal Brexit. Most people think politicians are pond scum so unless there is an actual shock to day to day life I doubt more than a few home buyers will be put off by this farce. They have come to expect it.

Were you living under a rock back then?

We were told the construction industry would fall off a cliff, they'd be a DIY recession, etc.

TW experienced a small rise in cancellations but once the noise died down business resumed as normal and the share price moved accordingly (hint, go and look at the TW price chart).

Maybe you don't see a similar situation today but I do and it's useful to learn from recent experience.

It too shall pass...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/27/taylor-wimpey-says-its-business-as-usual-after-brexit-vote

Though it be fair back then Brexit wasn't under 4 months away

Yes if you think people are going to stop buying new houses and / or house prices are going to crash, steer clear.

Agree with all of that but I don't think revenues will fall away. Unemployment is low, interest rates are low, Help to Buy is confirmed through to 2023 under this gov....yeah agree it's a risk that people stop buying homes but to mind that was a far greater risk after the Brexit vote when the pound suddenly plunged and inflation came back and there was still negative real wages growth. At this point in time there is no evidence that people aren't buying new homes. There simply isn't. If you have some, please post it. The CEO was cautious about the outlook - hey I would be too. What's the good of advertising the cash they are rolling in when Persimmons have just paid their CEO £70m and there could be a Corbyn gov around the corner! Be modest, talk your prospects down...

If they don't pay the dividend...fine. That cash sits on the balance sheet and I hold a share of it. It doesn't just disappear. Wouldn't be good for sentiment but at some point if the underlying business holds up as I believe it will sentiment will follow.

But I don't blame anyone for not buying right now I totally get the case for holding put.

They will pay the dividend. IMO it is not even a question.

The SP is crashing because it's unnerving having cash tied up in domestic British stocks. Much more peaceful taking cash out and seeing how things pan out on the other side months from now. I've done that before and might still do so! But I do like this stock and yield of ~13% compared to next to nothing in cash, no debt, no REAL data-based evidence of weakness in current trading....I am forcing myself to buy and hold.

I wouldn't look at it that way....look at banks...Barclays has traded at a discount to its price/book value for years relative to its peers. Brokers have been banging on about what a bargain it is. Has the gap closed? Nope. Still trades at a huge discount.

I care more about the return generated from the assets. And where the assets are i.e. land in the north vs. south and south east.

I always try and catch falling knives rather than waiting for a bottom. Today's shown you are wise to hold out for longer...!

Hi

Just had a look at historic data on CapitalIQ.

This company - I'm invested in it btw - is now trading at an Enterprise Value / Next 12 months' EBITDA ratio of ~4.6x.

You have to go back to 07 & 08 when the business had a gigantic debt pile and had to raise ~500m in capital to pay off debt and stay alive to find a lower multiple.

IMO this business is in rude financial health. Sure Brexit could hurt - but it'd slam so many others equally as hard and they aren't being marked down anywhere near the extent TW is.

People are fearful. But if you hold these shares in an ISA and collect 12% yield you are laughing....IMO.