Member Info for toneman

Excellent point tennents. That's almost certainly the reason for little change in that number. I guess we've lost a small opportunity given the 29MW drop in the pipeline.

The number I was waiting for is the pipeline change since mid-December update. It hasn't dropped by 200MW (the ThyssenKrupp announcement that went elsewhere). Does that mean the ThyssenKrupp project was never in our list anyway? Or have we added a further circa 200MW to take its place?

IES has been a painful speculation for me. Down 50% on that one. To be fair I didn't have a strong conviction with it...just hedging my bets a little. The trouble I have with that area is it only seems to have one market, electric energy storage, and there are loads of alternative storage solutions. It could be flow batteries become the go-to technology but equally could be any of the contenders.

Eventually the Fed will raise rates and that will become normal again...
Eventually Putin will invade Ukraine and the market will stop worrying about that particular uncertainty...
Eventually the ITM share price will be low enough to satisfy the "I told you so's" and "Bubblists" and even they will want to invest...
Eventually the big orders will come in and prove the rest of us right...

I hope the price hasn't fallen back to 50p by then...but if it does I guess I'll fill my boots again.

Sorry bilbs, I was just replying to noggers implication that we don't already know what Thursday's results will be. Surely noone's expecting anything other than what was announced mid-December.

The only new thing they can state on Thursday is what trading has happened since mid-December and possible change in expectations for order flow or invoicing. The results they forecast/proposed then are unlikely to have changed materially unless their knowledge of their own accounts is poor in the extreme.

That's close enough to my 250 top up price. Topped up around 260p. I hope we don't have to endure too much more, but if it gets even worse I'll consider my next top up circa 200p depending on sentiment. I think it's a bargain long term hold at these prices.

Major turnaround going on with our equivalents on the US markets. Plug was down over 12% earlier, but recovering strongly only about 2% down currently. Knife catchers? Dead cat bounce? Seems to quick to be a change in sentiment.

I think we would need some spectacularly positive news for this to turn around before hitting circa 250. Still got that pencilled in for a top up.

Today's price nudges us back under £2bn market cap. I wonder what price people will consider good value. £2bn for 2 large factories (future accepted) seems pretty good value to me.

:-(

markbantam, according to the constraint payments data, we've already got excess wind energy.

https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/indexbymth.php

Whether we believe this represents the actual excess energy thrown away is another matter. If the wind operators originally overstated their capacity then these figures are probably also overstating how much energy was lost. But if these figures are true energy lost then it's worth quite a few electrolysers already.

The comments are always extremely negative. Question is - who's right?

It is an indisputable fact that if you can use electricity directly, rather than indirectly though converting hydrogen, it is far more efficient. That's where those commentators generally stop the thought process, because they found an indisputable fact. The question they often fail to move onto is 'Does that matter?'. If there is no discernable advantage to be gained from using hydrogen for a particular application then the answer is yes...the end. But if there is a measurable advantage then that should be weighed against the cheaper and more efficient battery/cable option. For buses and heavy transport I think the hydrogen advantage still makes that question worth asking, because it might matter. Longer range. Quicker refill.

There are also advantages when it comes to home heating, wind turbine storage, long-term energy storage, and transfer of energy from distant places (Africa, Australia, and the Middle east). But do any of the benefits of hydrogen outweigh the extra cost of the hydrogen step when compared to the direct electrification alternatives. I still think some of them do, but it won't stop people tending to make their first choice a direct electrification model because they are easily persuaded that cost and efficiency can't be beaten.

I'm still backing hydrogen here because there is an early market in fertiliser, gas network injection, and wind turbine excess conversion. Those markets are big enough to take every electrolyser that can be produced for probably the next 10 years. By then we'll be able to see how direct electrification is working out in all the other potential markets.

I understand why cost, in this case running cost, would drive the decision to cancel the order, but I still wonder how the charging infrastructure works out for making all the buses battery electric. My understanding is that a bus typically has a battery capacity of 300kWh-400kWh which is probably good for a standard day's shift (assuming approximately 10 hours). To recharge at the end of the shift therefore, each bus requires about 30-40kW charger running for the rest of the day which is about 1 standard domestic home running at full capacity for 10-14 hours. I don't see that being a problem for a small network of buses, but is there a fleet size where it does start producing a strain on the grid network?

I also wonder the effect on long-term reliability, of running this sort of fleet, on recharging equipment. After all, if the charger fails for whatever reason then you've got an unplanned bus out of service. Naturally reliability for all early systems tends to improve over time as design flaws get ironed out, so it's possible the scenario I paint would be teething problems at worst.

I suppose in the grand scheme of green hydrogen demand, buses were only a small non-essential element, but it would have been nice to see it grow rather than shrink away in order to show that there really is a hydrogen economy. I still think the big demand should come from power storage of renewables, in particular wind turbines, but the 'simple' answer of batteries may yet take the first chunk of that market too.

Deani0, obviously for a share price to fly comes down to investors desire to hold more of the shares. I'm wondering if it's become too mainstream now for demand for shares, like 2 years ago, to be repeated. I feel that when the factories are operating at full capacity the market cap should be higher (e.g. 5x) but I doubt that it's going to 'fly' there. Headwinds on the share price are going to be strong. There will soon be two factories to fill. That requires consistent and frequent-flowing orders of 100MW+. Assuming that can happen it absolutely falls into the category of standard company metrics of revenue, profits and cashflow, which I think makes spontaneous enthusiastic speculative share purchases less unlikely. On the plus side I hope that makes the share mush less volatile, but it also means that missing performance targets can keep the share price subdued for a very long time. Your guess is as good as mine. I still feel there is a long-term 5x upside, but until deliveries start hitting 200MW+ on regular reports (so probably not this year) I think we'll be in 250-500 range.

Well it may not be ITM, but I'd rather be seeing orders of this scale rather than the 5-10MW deals we've been used to seeing over the past several years. Surely this bodes well?!?

I'll be interested to see ITM's next pipeline update. If it's not had 200MW sliced out of it then I'll be even more bullish.

Thanks Far2L8

Can you point me at that one please Bilbs?

I'm comforted by the thought that the low trading volume lately with ITM suggests that it's not a wave of sellers that is driving our price down, but simply the lack of buyers as the bigger money has shifted to buying traditional banks and big oil for safety and dividends. They just don't want to buy anything that's not making any money and I think we should get used to that playing out for a few months.

If big orders for hydrogen are going to come, unfortunately the timeline window is quite wide...could be tomorrow, could be in 2 years. I still hold a decent chunk of ITM (and others), but if the downward drift goes on a few months then I'm staking my claim to buying a top-up chunk at 250p. Does anybody else think we'll get that low?

Unless adoption of hydrogen is a complete failure I can't imagine how the market caps of ITM (£2.2b), McPhy (EU550m), and Nel (EU2.2b) wouldn't be 5x or even 10x in, say, 10 years or so. I'd include CWR in my thought process too, especially if their electrolyser project works out. I wonder what the bright sparks in the city know that I don't know.