RE: Two-pronged strategy? Thoughts...31 Jan 2022 11:26
Welcome MrBlobby. I'd be a little careful about the idea that adding ITM will "spread the risk". If hydrogen fails again to maintain traction, as it has repeatedly, then both share prices will sink without trace. It does however spread the risk of backing the wrong horse if there turns out to be an outright winner. My expectation is that hydrogen is a reality this time so a spread of these should average out the 'winners' and 'losers' (they might all be winners as the potential market is huge). My broad-brush understanding is that Nel's technology is currently lower cost, but is about 2x or 4x larger footprint and scales well to high MW. Nel does have a PEM solution in their US factory so covers both technologies. ITM has no intention of adding other technologies to their portfolio. I think the prospects for both companies are roughly equal. So far Nel has won where I thought ITM would be successful and vice versa. I think their strongest competition is coming from Plug Power who have an excellent global reach and cover both electrolyser and fuel cell solutions. The relative minnow of the ones I follow closely is McPhy, which seems very undervalued in comparison. Personally I am slightly overweight ITM with the rest of my hydrogen portfolio equal weighted on Nel, Plug, McPhy, Ceres and Ballard.