I agree with Cowichan. I remember reading a note from Mr T that we could expect an RNS in the middle of March 2020 re the 2019 Annuual Report - which was/is being delayed by Auditors! I was hoping to see it today latest. Could Mr T please take it up with CEY.
Non-Negative thoughts re 2019 prodn27 Mar 2019 11:24
Reading CEYs 4/3 Presentation Page 10, two important data is being presented. Re OPEN PIT: 50% reduction from ore body, because of the narrowing of the ore body, perhaps implying the use of the rest from STOCK pile ( 0.47g/t). This could reduce the Q/1 & even Q/2) grade average mill feed to around 0.65g/t.( they have 10.1Mt in stockpile from 2018).Perhaps that is the reason for reducing H/1 projection to 45%of Year 2019. I do not think we could expect anything better than their guidance figures.
As I projected on 28/12/2018, the loss of production in 2018 (march - august incl) was around 10,000 oz/month, making a loss of about 50,000 oz in 2018 due to the LHDR. I also suggested a prodn of 480,000 oz for 2018.
Hope they are able to get back to 45,000 oz/m in H2/19. We should not shoot our own feet. SIKO's statement seems to be on the spot.
page 13 of 25/02/19 clarifies answers to the doubts/ confusions. ;re open pit : 11.1M t @ 0.76 g/t to mill; 2.0Mt@ 0.37g/t to dumpleach: 10.0 Mt @ 0.475 g/t to STOCKPILE; stage4 sulphide materal the Primary source at least for next 3 yrs; appr 50% decrease in ore tons mined as orebody narrows etc; worth reading reports w/o pre judgement.
Mr Tibbs, KD, Darsut & bardill are correct; Cey also have stated that in their Reports-though may not be in non-professional manner. 2018 Mined grade of the Open Pit was 0.69g/t; but the feed grade was 0.9g/t;ie 30% better than the mined grade. Some of the 0.69 grade was stock piled for FUTURE mixing when they get a higher open pit grades. I believe that is one way they manage the grade control. 0.69g/t was the AVERAGE for year 2018. Also Cey have stated clearly they plan for 45 % in H1/19 & 55% for H2/19. They have not hidden anything. Reports have to be read patiently. One need not be a mining Engineer to read the reports intelligently. Siko's comments on good times are coming may be CORRECT MR T.
Perhaps some of us appear to come to conclusions without taking time to read the Annuual Reports, to appreciate the problems the mining staff face all the time. 2018 major problems were due to the faulty LHDR & the unplanned cascading of the stopes. Added to this, the U/G supervisory staff were not up to the mark.
The management have clearly accepted these - as evident from their Annual Report & other presentations. They appear to have put into force the solutions:
1) Change of Personnel of the Company 2) Change of Contractor 3) Purchase of a NEW LHDR + Existing LHDR repaired & functioning 4) Made multiple Technical Appointments 5) Appointed a new U/G Manager 6) Install Cement Hydraulic Back fill plant to reduce cascading & unplanned dilution by stabilising the stope walls
In addition, they have indicated that the grades have improved . Open pit feed grade approaching 1 g/t ( from 0.69 mined & 0.92 feed) & U/G from 5.69g/t to 7.2 g/t. If these numbers are correct, they shd be able to meet their guidance.
Also we could look at the grades from 2010 to 2018; Open pit varied annually, from 1.5g/t in 2010;1.25;1.25;1.2;0.9;0.9;0.8;0.9;0.89;0.69 in 2018. U/G varied from 6.0 in 2010;10.2;8.5;9.5;6.0;6.8;9;8.28;5.69 in 2018.
Well I believe that is mining & one cannot expect to ALWAYS achieve the grades & output.
After viewing Today's presentation REPORT ( Particularly pages 39-45), I can revise my production forecast on 2/2 & 6/2:Production for 2019 upped to ( 560-580),000 oz and Total 2018dividend increased by 20% i.e 6.14x1.2= 7.4p. I am assuming they will draw the extra reqd from the surplus $ 292 mln. ( their target is to retain $ 250 mln).
Declared Free Cash Flow for (Q1 to Q3/2018) =$ 35.1 m
Estimated FCF for Q4/18, based on Q1 production & Q4 production = 137,600/124,296 oz x$1238/$1328 x $34.5 = $ 35.8 m Total FCF for 2018 = $ 70.9 m; Total 2018 div = $ 70.9 / 1.155 b = 6.14 cts @ 100% distribution.