Member Info for ton-fra-cen

ORE price 05/02 is $88.16 ; Ignoring Auditors remarks must take the share price to 270 / 280 region before week end;
Hence I am not selling.

very encouraging piece

ORE has maintained price @ $86.53 on 4/2; It must be an over reaction, using comments by the broker bank. I expect the price to revert to 31/01 price this week. I am not selling in a hurry.

granto' explanation appears to be spot on. Ore price shot to $86.93 on Friray (02/02), And SP drops by 9% apprrox.
It is the acct's Language!!

Sorry; U/G performance for 2019 should read as "similar to Q/4 2018)" and not Q/4 /17.

Why not we change the subject and discuss on what we project as the production target for Year 2019.
Studying the 2018 Prelim, it appears that the management have improved the open pit performance
producing in Q/4 2018 , 0.92 g/t which is almost the same as Year 2017. However they still have a problem
with the underground performance. Q/4 2017 figures were 8.8 g/t & ( Year 17 was 8.28g/t), compared to 6.2 g/t
during Q/4 2018. Do remember that the processing plant throughput is at its MAXIMUM ie 12.6 Million Tonnes.

With open pit delivering the same as 17 & 18, and U/G performing similar to Q/4/17, I would expect a target of
530-550 thousand ounces. If they have seen any improvement in U/G , they will only increase the target.
What will the SP be? You could place your buy/sell decision accordingly!!!

The main reason for the abrupt shortfall in production in 2018 was the failure of the LHDR. Q1/18 output was 124,296 oz. (averaging 41,432 / month).Q2/18 averaged @ 30,960 /month. Q3/18, Jly & Aug averaged @ 34,600/month; LHDR problem resolved in Sept producing 48,511 oz. Oct/Nov averaged 45,000 oz. Dec projection appears to be 45000 to 50,000 oz. It would appear Q/4 Projection was based @ 48,500 oz/m, based on September production. Releasing an RNS of 2% projected shortfall should be appreciated , as this could help to maintain unnecessary shock in 2019 when Q/4 results are released. The board should also consider their operational problems, due to minor strata variations , which are not in their control. Let us all cheer up and hope for better 2019 & BEYOND.

Gold output depends on two variables. (a) Processing plant Capacity & (b) Plant feed grade.

Re (a) plant capacity is now at MAXIMUM 3.1 mt.

(b) feed grade was 1.28 g/t compared to Q/3 2017 was 1.82 g/t , which is about 42% higher. It would appear that
the management have used a feed grade of 1.58 g/t for their projection for Q/4 2018 to 145,000 oz. They still
have marginal benefit of 0.24 g/t or 28,250 oz , assuming the grade of the operating strata has improved to that of Q/3 2017 !!. Should this be so, 2018 could give an out of 508 Koz.

You have to consider the profit share of EMRA ie 40% Jan/June & 45% June to Dec 2018; also Shares on issue is about 1.13 bln

Mine production and market forces are two separate issues. I do not think that the management could print an incorrect output figure. Their projection can go wrong. In fact it appears they have been over careful in their projection. I am not
recommending that one should buy it now, since the price depends on the market forces, including dollar index. They say that the open pit has reached the sulphide phase, which reinforces the possibility of better years ahead.

I would recommend all to study Q/3 results carefully so that our conclusions reached could be unbiased.

1. Stoping grade has improved (6.16 g/t). ie 37% improvement.
2.Restored mix grade 60:40
3.Ore mined ( stoping & development) improved to3.65 g/t .
4. Milled grade has improved from 0.59 g/t to 0.81 g/t ( again 37% increase)
5. Produced 48,511 oz in September !!

All of the above are extremely good indicators that the mine strata has returned to the 2017 position. The equipment problem appears to be resolved, possibly with a new LHDR on site or due to arrive. Hence I posted yesterday that it would not be unreasonable to expect the mine output to reach about 500,000 oz for 2018.

It wouldn't be correct to assume that Centamin had published an incorrect figure re the September 2018 production.
If we read their Denver presentation they have clarified that 2018 production figure is based on their full year guidance published on 25 May 2018.I am inclined to agree that their statement is correct. Furthermore they have stated in their
Q3 prelims that Sept gave an exciting production of 48,511 oz.It must be an enviable output, because July & August together must have produced a meagre 69,209 oz( 117,720-48,511). With a new LHDR it may not be unreasonable to assume an uplift to 50,000 oz per month during Oct, Nov & Dec making 2018 production to 500,000 oz.

What I was referring was ELEMENTARY mine management. Owners/Operators and the Drill Operators would have a preventive maintenance programme - and followed systematically - should have overcome this shortfall. Similarly the discussion applies to all PLANTS on the critical path. CONTRACTORS have to be grilled regularly if the need arises. Slackness illustrates irresponsibility.

I agree with mrtribbles; LHDR is a part of the PRODUCTION MACHINE. How can one accept the theory that cost of production would go up . It wouldn't have costed CEY but the CONTRACTIOR. They must be having many LHDR in operation and surely they should have adequate spares in their main stores, particularly if such a machine on the CRITICAL PATH. CEY's site meetings - daily/weekly- would have pinpointed the ensuing problem. Drill rigs do not fail without indications, and would have been easily identifiable. General Manager/ Operation Manager has to take the TOTAL responsibility and the BOARD should deal with appropriately. Vigilant supervision of the contractor's performance is one of the PRIME responsibilities of such positions , particularly for an equipment on the critical path.

Re Cuwchan's comments: Scoping study etc is certainly very encouraging; Re Sotolo's comments: H1/18 aisc is $ 930 compared to H1/17 $ 857; General comment: Andrew Pardey's RISK REVIEW states " Following Production re-gudance in May of this year, the controls, mitigation and consequences associated .........relating to the achievement of production estimates have been assessed by the Board and remain an area of increased scrutiny & assessment of the year" ? Worth an assessment in this board !

Hi all,
It would appear that most of us are projecting a downhill . Though I am currently out, and perhaps Q3 & Year 18 may not be encouraging, certainly CEY would retrace to be a very sound performer on production & costs. I am just waiting to read the H/1/18 results and any future guidance they may pronounce. That may be a time to get in & not certainly to get out. Gold price is another matter common to all gold mines.

Hi all,
It would appear that most of us are projecting a downhill . Though I am currently out, and perhaps Q3 & Year 18 may not be encouraging, certainly CEY would retrace to be a very sound performer on production & costs. I am just waiting to read the H/1/18 results and any future guidance they may pronounce. That may be a time to get in & not certainly to get out. Gold price is another matter common to all gold mines.

Additional tertial crusher should improve mill performance & recovery, I expect.

Appears to mirror April/May /June; Shd be > 400 to reach revised guidance. Perhaps indicating entering better
strata in open pit & U/ground ,let us wait for Aug 2nd & shipments till then.

FAO:Mr Sparkle :
Could you please give the shipments during July todate. ie Month 1 of Q3/18