The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Here's a nice troika highlighting the Russian stake in the fake 'Oil price war'.
This to get a appetite for the numbers involved:
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-04/Will-Russian-state-budget-survive-the-negative-oil-export-price--PpqnNrARsQ/index.html
This to illustrate how Russia is handling the developments behind the scene and also showing how powerless or empty Trumps move is:
https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/102675/putin-government-rewriting-budget-at-20-oil-in-2020
Putin just playing:
https://borneobulletin.com.bn/russia-ready-to-cooperate-on-cutting-oil-production-putin/
Excellent posting, good analysis.
Don't worry too much about Trump. This "Us shale is going to collapse soon and take a few banks down with it as the loan book is massive." was baked in from the beginning. That money will disappear in his and his friends/masters pockets, as planned. Investors AND taxpayers ripped of on account of the illusion of energy independence. (Are you familiar with the work of Bethany McLean?)
Dip on Monday , then late Monday or Tuesday a very promising rise playing on the FOMO (fear of missing out) and sucking everybody from the side lines in. Then people are expecting to rise into the meeting but Tullow will go countertrend and lock everybody in. Then the wait at the then bottom for the $10 driving everybody crazy with a flatlining sp and unable to trade.
This is how it will play out. Trust me, I'm almost a politician.
Total stood up for Tullow. From that point on the future funding problems were of no immediate concern anymore, the asset sale will put the company on a fair footing. But the environment is extremely hostile at the moment, no room for mistakes.
Pardon, but I fancy a career in politics. For that I still have to work on my charm and improve the use of my skills to gain popularity and sympathy. They say it's a tough crowd here, thought I'd give it a go. I'm doing fine, not?
See this quote:
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For investors who want some exposure to oil and gas, Chevron (CVX) is the most attractive stock on a relative basis. Its balance sheet is strong enough to protect its 7% dividend yield and the company has made commitments to slow drilling and preserve cash. Should oil prices shudder again—a likely outcome—Chevron can continue on its current path. If other producers start looking to sell, the company should have enough capital to take advantage and possibly buy valuable acreage at a discount.
“We’re focused on fortress balance sheets at companies that will survive,” says Jeff Wyll, an energy analyst at Neuberger Berman. “Chevron is one name—a survivor with a fortress balance sheet.”
And that looks a lot better than counting on feuding oil producers to stay the course.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This is not about Chevron, but looking through the eyes of Chevron.
Keep asking yourself, again and again: why would a "Chevron' be interested in Tullow or its assets and why now?
If you can't come up with a convincing answer, divest partly and hit the sidelines.
This is not the time to play a sitting duck with a 'look and see'-attitude.
dip on Monday , then late Monday or Tuesday a very promising rise playing on the FOMO (fear of missing out) and sucking everybody from the side lines in. Then people are expecting to rise into the meeting but Tullow will go countertrend and lock everybody in. Then the wait at the then bottom for the $10 driving everybody crazy with a flatlining sp and unable to trade.
Sssst
This ZeroHedge article
In retrospect, trading on a Trump tweet may not have been the best idea.
On April 2, in what initially appeared to be a belated April fool's joke, the US president tweeted "Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!"
What followed was the biggest rally in the price of oil ever, as countless oil shorts scrambled to cover their positions amid concerns there could be even a shred of truth to Trump's boast that the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia could be coming to an end, especially since global oil demand had cratered by over 20% just as Saudi Arabia boosted its own output to a record 12mmb/d
Read on here:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/after-record-rally-oil-faces-collapse-new-feud-erupts-between-saudis-and-russia-monday-opec
https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/?search=oil&lang=a&searchheadlines=1
Because I call a target below the sp you assume to know my position?
You aren't much of a poker player, are you?
P.S. For what it is worth, I could ramp pages about the potential and possibilities of Tullow. It's just not realistic to look that far ahead under today's circumstances. Somehow people are acting like we are in the eye of the storm. That's a mistake.
LTH's, take heed. Trade, claw some back, gain shares... whatever. But don't throw your last pennies in and stand back. You'll need plenty to survive and nobody knows when you will be forced to sell. Remember that.