Member Info for tomhuk2000

No problem at all Sangi. That's fair enough. I like to ask why non-investors are posting on stocks I am invested in as some have more unsavoury agendas (shorting etc).

It will be interesting to see if AGL get to a point where you and Bantham are convinced of their "potential" future success and where Fevertree is a more contented long-term holder.

More interestingly for me is what will be the catalyst (should it happen) that tips you over the edge from sceptic to potential buyer.

FeverTree

Regarding my Newland being "Damned if he does and Damned if he doesn't" post below re tomorrow's presentation, as an investor yourself what could Newland say tomorrow that would make you sit up and think..." Ok this company may be turning a positive corner here"??

EC I was called out for calling out TwoGood as a deramper, but not hating on any Rampers so I had to pick a name and you are the most prolific poster on here. Apologies.

That's fair enough Bantham. I understand how a CEO can leave a bad taste etc.

Fingers crossed re AGL for me and for your other investments too.

Fair enough, but if you haven't invested and won't invest Sangi. I don't understand why you are wasting your valuable time posting multiple times a day on a BB that you have no stake in. (Who knows why TwoGood bothers or EC, but you seem to have a good head on your shoulders so I am curious)

I think it's unlikely that you're some white knight patrolling AIM forums with the aim of warning us "mug-punters" of the ills of certain companies. And if you're not a previous disgruntled investor who has lost money here, or you're not looking to try to drive the SP down for a cheaper entry, then why waste your time here? (Genuine question as I am truly baffled)

Sangi, All I was merely trying to get across is that despite the doom and gloom expressed by some on here. The past 3 months have seen a marked turn in fortunes/productivity for AGL, surely you must admit they are at least making an effort and the outlook is appearing more positive?

If not, I'll let Newland know he better get laying those golden eggs.

Bantham, I've looked at those shares too and both have a very good outlook.

I'll be interested to see what is said in the presentation tomorrow. However, Newland will seemingly be damned if he does or damned if he doesn't with regard to what he says.

If he comes out all guns blazing and says that they are in advanced talks with Mega-Major Pharma companies and all is astronomically excellent - He will be tarred with the "This is a typical Newland bluster-ramp and should be ignored"

If, however, he reads this BB and tries to come across to concerned investors in a more measured manner and says: "All is progressing well and we will update the market in due course" - He will be vilified as having lost momentum and as not having the drive to get this company over the line with the big-hitting pharma's. See my point.

I'm happy with what I've seen over the past few months and will allow Newland and AGL as a whole the time to recover the SP and overall value for shareholders.

Hi Bantham, Sangi, et al.

I just saw your post Bantham. Indeed it would be great to see another institutional investor buying (and we still might). But you must surely agree that the news over the past couple of months and the overall signs of life and positive upward trajectory are very encouraging. No?

Since 9th November AGL have:

- Issued a “Trading and Business Update” stating 2023 revenue has increased by 120%, 2024 Revenue is expected to triple (not including new contract wins) and they have a cash runway until Q2 2025.

- Launched PD-L1 Test to support Cancer studies.

- Launched Portait+ CTC Kit at the San Diego Breast Cancer Symposium.

- Announce the publication of breakthrough work by researchers at the University of New Mexico, US, into the role of CTC gene expression in the progression of melanoma brain metastasis. The researchers used the Parsortix system to harvest CTCs for analysis and concluded that "? gene expression in CTCs could be pivotal to prescribing more targeted treatment based on the needs of the patient.

- Berenberg broker Research note price target of 120p

- Pilot Study contract win for $250,000 with the "large" $14.3bn MCAP Eisai (with the aim of a successful study leading to more work from them)

- Breakthrough Clinical results from DNA molecular analysis of cancer patient blood samples that provide a unique insight into the progression of each patient's cancer and how this may be treated.

- Investor Global Frontier Partners increasing their holding from 5.32% to 6.47%

I know there have been frustrations in the past about Newland not bringing the product to market rapidly enough, but surely the past 3 months’ progress is noteworthy enough for a small pat on the back?

Although I reckon Newland could start sh*tting golden eggs and some members of this board would post that " sadly gold prices are in fact going to plummet over the coming months”.

Has AGL had a perfect track record with revenue generation since FDA approval? - Far from it.

Has AGL been working to make the product offering more commercially viable? - Yes, very much so.

Has the past 3 months been a positive sign that that work is potentially turning the trajectory of the company to the positive? - Yes I think so and that's why I have bought in and bought in heavily.

What was that you were saying about institutional investors not loading TwoGood?

This post on Twitter is worth a read with regards to who Eisai are:

With last week's pilot study contract win for #AGL here's some info on their new client Eisai:

- MCAP $14.3bn

- Over $5bn revenue in 2022

- Based in Japan but with over 40 subsidiaries worldwide

- 10,000+ employees

- Specialists in Oncology & Neurology

- 9 Production sites

- Ranked 38th in PharmaExec's top 50 global Biopharma Co's based on prescription drug sales

- Top selling drugs: Lenvima, Humira & Halaven (Breast Cancer)

https://www.pharmexec.com/view/2023-pharm-exec-top-50-companies

https://x.com/RedditDeluxe/status/1744714869528793169?s=20

Hi Sangi,

Just a quick question. Are you or have you been an AGL investor? I asked the same of FeverTree and Bantham, who I’ve chatted to on here and he had been in and out but was currently “watching with interest”. Just for my own curiousity as it helps me understand perspective re the company’s past and future outlook etc.

Reminder: Proactive One2One Forum Thursday 11th January 6pm.

https://x.com/RedditDeluxe/status/1744290361726386576?s=20

Eisai Interview Video

https://x.com/RedditDeluxe/status/1744387263851630893?s=20

Hi Sangi,

Apologies, yes he starts the description of Eisai with "huge" and then finishes with "large". ( Perhaps trying to show some uncharacteristic restraint! lol) See attached video clip posted on Twitter.

I have called out TwoGood and you're correct, for evenhandedness, I should have also called out the moronic ramping posts too. I have been on LSE for a few years now and there are a few posters whose agendas/actions seen more insidious than others. But yes, Idle ramping or deramping with little or no factual gravity, or just downright misinformation, is the bane of these boards.

Sangi,

Yeah, I think when Newland was referring to huge pharma companies he wasn't putting Eisai in that bracket, I say this as in last week's Proactive Interview he refers to Eisai as "large". So hopefully the huge ones are still set to land?

I have looked at the Nanotech competitor options and they seem a little way off in terms of readiness to market and gain FDA/CE mark approval. (So at the very least AGL should have a decent amount of time to monopolise the market)

Well that was a waste of my time and effort Sangi.

That's your opinion re "staying afloat". Mine differs from that as I have been very impressed with the work done over the past year to make the tech more commercially viable and accessible. Cash burn will be significantly lower this/next year and with the recent developments I am expecting a steady flow of new contracts. (probably following the Eisai route of PILOT STUDY expanding into further fields of commercial interest in the target company.)

I bought in with a significant stake at the beginning of December at around 11p and have been encouraged by the progress so far. I'll be holding for a share price closer to that of Berenberg's at £1.20p, it may take time but I am patient.

Hi Sangijuelas1

Here is the breakdown from the 9th November "Trading and Business Update" RNS:

"The Company expects revenue recognised for 2023 will be c. £2.2 million, which is an increase of 120% over revenue achieved in 2022 but below current market consensus of c. £3.0 million. New sales secured in 2023 are expected to be c. £3.3 million however revenue recognition for some of these sales will fall into the 2024 financial year. Gross margin for H2 is expected to be higher than H1 reflecting the product-service mix and, together with tight cost control, to result in the cash position at 2023 year end being in line with consensus at c. £15 million. 

Revenue recognised for 2024 is expected to treble compared to 2023 with the growth of distributor sales, and with the planned launches of the Portrait PD-L1 test (services), see separate announcement today, the Portrait+ antibody staining kit (products), and the Parsortix BiDetectTM DNA solutions combining ctDNA and CTC-DNA analysis (products and services) all contributing to the Company's sales growth ambitions.

Here's a useful factual summary thread for new/prospective investors:

Parsortix CTC Timor cell harvesting device has:

- US FDA Approval

- EU CE Mark

- UK UKCA Mark

- 26 granted patents inc USA, China, Europe, Japan, Canada & Australia until 2034

- Rights to market in USA, UK & Europe currently

- Portrait+ Kit launched last month at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium.

Financials:

- Debt Free

- Cash in the bank of £15m = over 50% of current MCAP

- Fully funded cash runway until Q2 2025

- 2023 Revenue up 120%

- 2024 Revenue expected to treble (not including any new deals)

- Cost streamlining in place

- Directors have skin in the game & bought most recently at 28p to 29.75p (prior to this at 80p)

- Staff share options exercisable at 25.75p

Upcoming Catalysts:

- Assay updates

- Molecular study results

- Major pharmaceutical deals (as per recent webinar)

- Due to the diverse service offering, the CEO has stated: “a single deal could be worth 100’s of millions”

Conclusion:

- Lack of commercial deals has been the main criticism over the years. However, AGL has been working to simplify the service offering for easier commercialisation (new Portrait+ kit & molecular studies etc) Are AGL at a turning point?

It would appear that the strong start to 2024 is an indicator all is moving along very well, with the Pilot study contract with the large multibillion-dollar Eisai pharmaceutical company based in Japan and last week's excellent "Better than anticipated" study results. The findings from the study are of particular significance for AGL as it includes mutations that are targeted by FDA-approved *cancer drugs, yet were missed by traditional ctDNA analysis. These *Drugs are marketed by pharma majors Astra Zeneca, Roche, Novartis et al.

https://x.com/RedditDeluxe/status/1743630260497772868?s=20

https://x.com/RedditDeluxe/status/1735222212985082111?s=20

Well despite differences of opinion, it’s been a very positive start to 2024 for AGL.

Have a great weekend all.

Bantham,

There will always be those who buy on a high and, if they’re short term day traders, will be left selling at a loss. I’m more focussed on investors with more than a few days patience in them. If they, as I, have invested in a company they’ve researched, done due diligence on and believe to have big potential, then as long as they are patient enough to let the company develop, then buying at any level today will see them do very well.

But as I said earlier, let’s let this play out over the coming weeks and see where we stand then.