Member Info for Tomaaa

Worst not over yet. The drop came about this morning due to the way the regulator structured AT1 bonds in the terms of the credit suisse take over/sale by UBS. The ECB/EU has a different take on how they would deal with AT1 bonds should they find themselves in a similar situation. The ECU/EU moved to clarify their OWN position earlier this morning which enable the recover today so far.

Credit Suisse had issues long before the past few weeks of the other banking issues in the US. The short sellers took advantage of the weakness of certain banks who, shall we say weren’t in the best of positions. Will see wether that removes the exposure to same short sellers tomorrow. Will also see wether banks stabilise and recoup some of their loses :)

Swiss government doing an important news conference tonight to get in before Asian markets open. UBS upped offer from 1BN to 2BN today. Considering Credit Suisse had a market cap of around 8BN on Friday it looks like UBS got it cheap. Beggars can’t be choosers when the stakes are this high tho.

Probably why Kew closed his short Friday as getting greedy can lose money as well as gain.

Going on First Republic bank share price action on Friday it may still need some work so likely that may possibly need a buy out too. Much smaller bank tho so much easier to resolve.

Metom
If the banks stabilise and regain some of their loses they should start to pull the wider markets back up with them. Wether that’s Monday I can’t say but it’s always difficult to call the bottom before buying back in on a profitable rise back up.

The amount of money the federal reserve have given out in emergency loans to banks in the past week has set a new record and could surpass those handed out during the 2008 financial crisis in reports today. UBS looking to take over credit Swiss bank. Need some stability in banking shares for markets to move back up.

Well done Kew, financial system issues helped you out on that one tho ;)

Market won’t recover until financial system (banks) stabilise and recoup some loses. Whilst they continue to fall they’ll pull down the wider markets.

Nettles, will take big balls to sit in over this weekend on the hope for an opening bounce to sell off in the current situation. Not impossible as a day is a long time for markets to change direction for the traders. Trend is down tho GL

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/16/ecb-rate-decision-march-meeting-lagarde-announces-new-rate-hike.html

Article on Reuters early today

JPMorgan analysts said the loan from the SNB would not be enough to soothe investor concerns and "status quo was no longer an option," leaving a takeover for Credit Suisse as the most likely outcome.

Credit Suisse shares were indicated at 2.3 Swiss francs ($2.48), up 35% from Wednesday's close. The stock fell by as much as 30% the previous day after the bank's backer said it could not offer any more financial assistance for regulatory reasons.

The Swiss bank's announcement overnight helped stem heavy selling in financial markets in Asian trade on Thursday and European markets were heading for a bullish start to the day.

In its statement early Thursday, Credit Suisse said it would exercise an option to borrow from the central bank up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion).

That followed assurances from Swiss authorities on Wednesday that Credit Suisse met "the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks" and that it could access central bank liquidity if needed.

"Following yesterday's extreme share price volatility, Swiss authorities offered their support. This is a strong and important signal. We hope the measures will calm down markets and break the negative spiral," Bank Vontobel equity strategist Andreas Venditti said.

"However, it will take time to fully regain trust in the franchise. We will update our financial/valuation models to reflect the impacts of recent events and a higher risk perception in the financial sector (higher cost of equity)," Venditti said.

Markets are volatile whilst banks remain a worry so there’s a great deal of trading around the edges whilst volatility remains. Won’t improve until the banks steady and central banks complete the next round of interest rate decisions. If a bank creates a fire central banks can’t put out it’s going to get very messy. There are risks at the moment you should factor in !

Swiss government talking bail out last nite and early this morning. Will need a few days to see that no other banks in trouble before it all calms down. Uk banks always lag behind the rest in recovery. Market has a big bet the federal don’t t raise interest rates at next meeting and pause.

Eh up!

Dumb and dumber spouting nonsense again.

Socialism! Heard it all now. I personally invest on wether I can make profit on my investment ! I leave it to fools like Richie poor to bring his political beliefs into his investments.

Anyway back to my original starting line, which one is dumb and which one is dumber as it’s a close run choice :)

Correct, until the financial sector stabilises they’ll likely pull most everything else down with it. If the federal reserve pause interest rate rises how does that help inflation as it’s not tamed yet there or Europe. Going too soon risks inflation going up again in the medium term. Central banks in the US, UK and ECB have a very tricky decision to make a call on going forwards. The budget mostly benefited the rich. Much like the hospitals who will work looking after these children in crèches etc. the wages don’t make it an attractive place to earn money on minimum wage. Looks great on paper for political browny points but unless they can staff it then it won’t work.

ECB interest rate rise of 0.5% to maintain credibility but with problems in the financial sector it’s a tricky one to go there. What you have to factor in is that central banks are putting out small fires in the financial sector so should one of these find some oxygen to burn it could fall quickly. The situation looks a lot more risky in past two day than it did. Some smiley faces for you :) :) :)

Credit suisse investment bank trading at a record low. :(

The banking concerns have spread to Europe. As I said this morning Credit suisse investment bank. That decline comes after media reports that Saudi National Bank representatives said they could not shore up their investments in Credit Suisse, citing regulatory concerns. Basically their top share holder has said it won’t be pumping more money in.

Concerns about credit suisse investment bank, market still monitoring banks for contagion. Looks a lot like yesterday was a dead cat bounce today but will see how the American market performs this afternoon

Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment. :(

Federal reserve gave certain guarantees to protect depositors and for same regional banks to pay out deposits without having to sell bonds at a loss. A lot of the US regional banks that lost big amounts yesterday where pulling back some of their losses in pre-market earlier this morning. When the banks do well general they help pull up the markets. Added more Barclays and Lloyds this morning. US CPI also cooled in February. Should be a good day for those that indulged in some dip buying as long as no further financial sector issue spring to light. GL

Not bullish in longer term after being de-banked but I don’t trade crypto as I find it very unpredictable and harder read so wouldn’t be surprised to go either way. :)