RE: The Time Is Now25 Apr 2025 07:43
"AI systems are increasingly matching or surpassing humans across a range of tasks. Today’s AI systems have many limitations, but industry is investing at a scale that assumes capabilities will continue to grow rapidly. Frontier models in 2024 are trained with 10,000x more computing power than in 2019, and we are likely to see a similar rate of growth by 2029. If progress continues at the rate of the last 5 years, by 2029 we can expect AI to be a dominant factor in economic performance and national security.
Many of us have become familiar with the remarkable capabilities of large language models across a broad set of domains. Leading AI companies continue to push this frontier, and we are also seeing stunning progress in other modalities, including breakthroughs in video and image generation, robotics, mathematics, and scientific discovery. To take one example, DeepMind’s AlphaFold - which predicts protein structures - is estimated to have saved the equivalent of 400 million years of researcher time. We can imagine the impact on science, medicine and the broader economy if we see this sort of success in other domains.
Given the pace of progress, we will also very soon see agentic systems - systems that can be given an objective, then reason, plan and act to achieve it. The chatbots we are all familiar with are just an early glimpse as to what is possible."
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