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You are wrong. I used the figure Segun Lawson gave in the interview published by Proactive Investors today. I know figures can differ over quarters. The second half of the year could yield lower-grade ore just as Q2 did. What is in the ground is what is in the ground. No one has control over that.

If you have the link to the interview where he claimed Segolila is currently producing 2,100oz of gold per week, please share it as I would find it useful. It is worth filing away.

The only figure you have offered throughput today's discussion is that of 2,100oz per week which you got from some interview. You could be mistaken. you could have misheard. Segun Lawson may have misspoken. Without casting aspersions on Segun lawson, I do hope you do not invest money based on a CEO's perceived honesty. That is very risky. Even hard numbers can be tampered with with the full knowledge of some auditors and non-executive directors. Just read the news and hefty fines issued to "big 4" auditors in past years. It is a risk we have to take. But to ask me to rely on the forward-looking statements of a CEO is just reckless. Even they put disclaimers on published statements, not to talk about some interview where they may have misspoken.

Totally my fault for trying to calculate production based on how many tonnes the mine can mill in an hour. I should have kept to my initial but simpler calculation. The numbers I got from the tonnage per hour were unreal so my brain chose to assume figures that would make it make sense.

These are the simpler and more sensible numbers:

Q1 2024:

Gold recovered: 19,589 oz

Tonnes milled: 235,900

Average gold milled per tonne: 2.85 g

Mine production: 465,895 tonnes

Average production: 2.07 g/tonne

Ore stockpile: 29,265 oz (grade: 1.05 g/tonne)

Q2 2024:

Gold recovered: 21,742 oz

Tonnes milled: 174,000

Average gold milled per tonne: 3.42 g

Mine production: 491,935 tonnes

Average production: 1.78 g/tonne

Ore stockpile: 38,298 oz (grade: 1.01 g/tonne)

First half of the year

Total gold production = Q1 production + Q2 production

Total gold production = (19,589 + 21,742) oz

Total gold production = 41,331 oz

Therefore, the estimated total quantity of gold likely to be produced for the year 2024 is approximately 82,662 ounces. This estimation assumes consistent production rates and stockpile utilisation. I have seen no hard evidence there will be any significant increase.

I am assuming most of the work is automated and 8hr shifts in Nigeria are pretty commonplace.

They probably had 1 lucky week. I would rely more on what has been officially released and published. Those are the numbers I would use. I onky used the 120tonnes per hr figure he have in his interview as there is no official statement regarding that.

People need to take what management says with a pinch of salt. This is why we have auditors and non executive directors to balance them out.

According to the Proactive Investors interview, Segun Lawson says they are expecting or hope to mill 120 tonnes an hour.

This is a rough calculation, so brainiacs should set me straight if I am missing anything:

Let us assume the mine operates 40 hours per week (Nigerian working hours).

- There are 121 working days in the second half of 2024, excluding holidays. Let us assume 11 public holidays.

- This results in 4,840 working hours (121 days * 40 hours per week).

- The average production is 1.78 grams per tonne.

This gives an estimated 36,467oz of gold. H1 gave a total of 41,331oz. The grade of the current stockpile averages 1.01g/tonne so we should not expect any miracles from there. The total for the year therefore should be about 77,798oz unless I am missing something. If we add some more efficient drawdown of gold-in-circuit of about 3koz, then about 80koz is feasible.

We should have been given a heads-up at the previous update though, so it does not sound like an excuse.

"We reduced our throughout to see if the upgrades worked" - Segun Lawson.

Fair enough. Fingers crossed for Q3.

"They had to reduce throughput to mine the gold in the CIL..."

They did not have to do that though. With modern mines, you can do both at the same time. I thought the mine was upgraded and all of that. Could it have been poor planning? I do not expect you to know - except of course you have a direct line to Segun lawson.

The target was a range...but you do you. Let us agree to disagree.

Thanks, Schmidt. That clears things up a little bit. But the question remains - why did they have to reduce milling? I do not get it. They should have used this quarter to prove a point.

HarChris, well, that "non-ramper" promised us between 85koz and 95koz . He gave us ~ 84.6koz. That is a ramper in my books (deliberate or not).

The reason for reducing milling cannot be cash, surely? And if it is because the mine is operating at near capacity, how can milling then be ramped up in subsequent quarters? It cannot be due to upgrades as we were told that was completed in Q1? With a 94% recovery, you can bet your bottom dollar I was expecting up to 25koz. I am not sniffing at the numbers. They are still good...for now... but there is no point hyping numbers only to be disappointed as it does not do the share price any good.

Your number.bers look reasonable to me Schmidt. However as a newbie, saying they had to reduce the throughput was confusing to me. Mine production in Q2 was 492k tonnes compared to Q1's 466k. That seems like an increase to me? I thought releasing GIC could be done in tandem with milling. In fact I assumed that releasing GIC would mean more gold was recovered than if only milling was done. I am a novice at this, so please bear with me.

My numbers assume gold production/recovery will be about the same as the first half. Nothing except the words of mgmt tells me otherwise. I was let down by last year's numbers. The guidance was 85 to 95koz, we got 84.7koz though the insistence was that that guidance would be met. I also assumed AISC of 1100 to 1200 and an avg gold price of 2100 - 2200.

Yes, if we assume gold prices do not nose-dive. People may pull their money out of gold if economies are seen to be recovering.

I would temper expectations and project free cash flow to be about $40m

I think 80koz is more realistic. Here is hoping for good news from drilling results under and around Segilola in the second half of the year. Hopefully Douta's PFS will be great too.

1ghandi, AISC for the year is $1100 - $1200

Share sleuth, That statement did not make much sense to me as someone new to gold mining. I was under the impression that releasing GIC would result in more gold in a quarter - not less. Indeed mine production was higher but due to lower-grade gold ore, less gold was produced. And this was my point - no one can project with pinpoint accuracy what they are going to get out of the ground, so the 95k to 100k projection seems rather optimistic to me. The stockpile is reducing in quality, not increasing.

It is best to do a like-for-like comparison. In previous updates, the amount of gold recovered was the main metric under "Segilola production". So, if I am to be pedantic, I was expecting 25,000oz to be recovered (and not about 21koz) as this is what counts towards the full production guidance at the end of the year.

I do not know why they changed the language style of the updates. I did not quite like that and is bound to confuse many. Gold produced in Q1 was 19, 589oz. Gold produced in Q2 was 21, 742oz.

Hm. What is the guarantee g/t will not reduce due to lower-grade deposits? Optimistic, considering average mine production has decreased this quarter. I acknowledge recovery is better due to upgrades, but what is in the ground is what is in the ground...

I guess meeting guidance would not be that important if considerably more deposits are found. Not a lot of luck so far...Enough to last another 3 years after this one so far. Hopefully, the good fortune of higher gold prices will continue for a while.