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Evening all, another windy day in North Africa with little sun! Interesting estimates from Element even though I can’t see us getting much more than half northern star share price anytime soon.

Victorocto what’s your interest in GGP? Apologies if I’ve missed this. Do you hold shares, looking to buy/sell or just interested?

@ Speedy to respond to your query a couple of days ago, I've worked out as follows, please note this is VERY f@g packet:

Your Assumptions:

Yearly production = 500k ounces gold between Havieron and Telfer (we've ignored copper)

Price per ounce = USD 5k which = AUD 7k at 1.41 exchange rate

Average AISC = AUD 2000 (I couldn't find what your assumption was but this seems reasonable as average between both mines)

Mining Profit per Ounce = AUD 5,050

Mining Profit = AUD 2.5 billion per annum

Corporation Tax @30% = 0.75 billion

Wage Bill with 430 Employees @ Average Wage AUD 100k each = 0.043 billion

Annual Total Profit before Cap Ex etc = AUD 1.7 billion = GBP 0.9 billion @ 0.52 exchange rate

Seems about right given Dec 2025 Quarter operating cash flow of AUD 400 million. Times 4 for a year is AUD 1.6 billion.

So then Hav LOM is 17 years. No idea with Telfer, let's say 6. Presuming no increase in production nor gold price increase and that profit is 50:50 average split between the mines.

Hav Profit @ 17 years = GBP 7.6 billion

Tel fer Profit @ 6 years = GBP 3.5 billiob

Total Profit of Mines = GBP 11.2 billion.

Curent MCAP GBP 4.4 billion.

Certainly uplift in SP potential and I think we've low-balled production anyway to say nothing about the fact that gold has risen 800% in the last 20 years.

As a simple summary, and perhaps more accurate, Northern Star sold 1.6 million ounces of gold for 2025. Their AISC average was AUD 2,200. By the time Hav comes online properly IMO we'll be just under half of that gold sales but hopefully with an AISC of more like AUD 2000. Hence out SP should track roughly half of Northern Star. Which is not far off where we are now.

On that note I'm going for dinner! Good weekend all!

Bamps / Rotherby, what's the date please? I'm not back in the UK until the 25th of this month.

Good advice Speedy, I'm back in the UK soon so hopefully if and when Bamps does another one I'll be sure to attend. I remember a while back he posted items relating to dual trains etc but that I'm guessing was Hav related, rather than Telfer. Scotland doing well now in the cricket :-(

Lol they autocorrected my f@g word!! :-)

ok thanks speedy! i think you've low-balled the production between the two if i'm honest, i did work out some maths to show revenue / profit going forward as you suggested, very exciting! bit of a *** packet job but i'll recreate whilst i'm watching the cricket and post later.

Btw I am aware of the MRE next month for Telfer which should show a decent extension of mine life which in turn will obviously increase the worth of the company. However, it won't increase production rates and hence revenue and profit on a monthly basis. I, and I'm sure others, would be interested if one of our experts could explain how to use infrastructure etc to physically increase production rates. I hope that makes sense!

Element 1 - Yep fair enough OK (good comment Malcolm), and also in relation to a comment Speedy made yesterday I think re 500k ounces gold per annum at Hav, where are you getting 450k ish per annum from Telfer please? Last I saw the predictions were circa 320k at Telfer and 260k at Havieron. Unless I've missed a release in which case please tell me! It'd be great to ramp up the production since IMO I think it's the only way we'll see a 'good' increase in SP except as and when gold increases. The market already knows production of Telfer and estimates of Hav so I don't foresee any SP increases unless we can boost production and/or reduce AISC. Or obviously find another mine or JV etc!

Speedy where are you getting 500k ounces per year from, I think you said just Hav?

I agree with the Iran comment earlier. For obvious reasons I hope another conflict doesn't happen but history and the orange buffoon tells us differently. IMO we'll just tick along up and down roughly with the gold price unless we can boost production at Telfer and/or reduce AISC (MRE next month may help). IMO I think we'll carry on at roughly half of Northern Star share price which based on monthly production and revenue, taking into account Hav, is about right. GLA. Nice to see gold recovering a bit from yesterday afternoon!

Another good day so far for gold with US employment figures pending. There are some whopping gold predictions for this year! Not sure they'll manifest quite as high as I've seen but getting up to 6k USD is a definite possibility IMHO. GLA.

@Carters no I really hope they do find a lot of Tungsten, or any other precious / rare mineral, because at least then the company will have an end goal to become a 'miner' rather than an 'explorer'. I was lucky enough to get into GGP when it bought Havieron from Newmont at 5.3p when it did it's big equity raise and now look at it. However, they had a proven mine with which to go at. If GWM can find something of value then at least there is more point to an equity raise other than to 'keep looking' and give some value back to the shareholders. GLA.

I think the big question is going to be when is the next equity raise? They generally churn through about 0.5m every 6 months and that 1.25m raise mid '25 surely will run out by June '26, at the latest, given the 'extensive' drill programme. Regardless of results they're going to need more money soon. I think I'll have a dabble when that comes around.

Compared to GGP? Rubbish. I don't see a Havieron anywhere?

She’s worth 2bn max at the moment. I read Bamps and Element but that’s in the future. If it happens. The FS will be interesting but anything could happen.

You need to get off AIM. I sold 395, hoping to buy back 335. Bought originally 268 but I did 5.25 before ASX.

ASX is currently 3% up at 9.08! Let's hope it either stays there or carries on.

👍

Who cares? Just hit 8.99 on ASX.

She's a dog. c2645sg i know you have an interest in GGP so why bleet on here? How much did you lose? AML has always been a mess. Until Mercedes buy her she will be a dog.