Member Info for Timid

JS, for fun only, not to be taken too seriously!
Okay, H is a cylinder. Let’s say 100m radius (Sprott was 80m) and, let’s be optimistic, 1200m long. Area of the circle is 31,400 x 1200m x SG of 3 = 113mt of rock. Assume lowball 2g/t Au equiv gives 7.3moz.
150m radius and strike length of 1.5km gives ~20moz. (You can see why the stepouts add tonnes very quickly.)
Attribute USD100/oz – upper end of recent deals I think – gives 30% of H (7.3moz) a value of ~170m Pounds, about 4.25p which is pretty close to the Numis price target.
Be generous because there is no CAPEX for a plant and allow $200/oz on a dreamtime 20moz then GGP’s stake is worth ~925m Pounds!!!
But we’re dreaming.

JS, I don't think the SP can get to 10p. It seems to me that the discussion on this board is missing the clear signal from NCM about the high grade zones. It has moved on from the Sprott model so I have stopped my calcs because no one knows true widths and what eventual grade NCM will target. When they are seeing results like HAD18 - ~100m at 4.5g/t Au - HAD14 (75m at 4g/t Au equiv.), HAD12 (139m at 3.5g/t Au equiv) etc. I'm sure their eyes light up. Sure the low grade envelope can be mined years down the track but why truck <1g/t material to Telfer when you could be trucking ore at 3 or 4x that value. In the absence of assays all we can do is watch, via PGs satellite images, the direction in which NCM is drilling and how close-spaced the collars are. Look at HAD12. Would you prefer that intersection or 500m at <1g/t? So lets watch NCM chase the HGZs deeper - up to 2km downhole now? - and then it will need to decide if a decline is needed to keep chasing this steeply plunging cylinder to its end. As soon as NCM thinks it has found the limits of the HGZs we should see infill drilling really ramp up - 25m spacings - and Paddy's images will have black dots all over them. Or, drilling will have gone u/g sometime next year and all our fun will be taken away from us!

Agreed JS. I'll come to London, buy a dozen bottles of Crystal or Dom and invite you all for a drink if SP hit 10p let alone 15-20p on Havieron drilling!

Watch this to see how one exploration company educates and informs its s/holder base - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Ttlq-PiJU&feature=emb_title

Okay, great, thanks. That 7597500 section line is where HAD16 was drilled which Newcrest surmised went over the top of the cylinder. GGP said Havieron depth suggested by survey was only limited by technology i.e. they had not found the bottom. That's what makes the latest drilling interesting, moreso if PGs images in due course show Newcrest stepping out south of that collar that has appeared in the SW.

hey news: "<>Newcrest said Havieron is 1.5km."
Did NCM say H is 1.5km deep?
On PGs latest image that SW collar suggests to me that NCM is going deeper, under HAD17 & 18 but 1.5km deep suggests total depth of ~2km allowing for 400m of cover. I can see that new SW hole going that deep. HAD17 had total down hole depth of over 1.5km reaching a depth of about 1400m. If they find the HGZs continuing that deep then it's happy days. The holes to the NW are targeting the top of the system so not so excited about those.

Love your work PG. Can you ask AS to interview a Newcrest geo!

WTF did he say exactly? PG, you or I could have given a better interview complete with why we think Newcrest is drilling where it is. What we need is a geo able to interpret what is happening at Havieron with and comapre it with something similar that has been a success so we can educate ourselves. That interview said FA in terms of anything informative or newsworthy. That was ramping paid for by someone!

When one picture is worth more than a thousand words, or in the case of this board maybe 10,000! Thanks again PG. The three drill pad in the NW near the camp are promising. I can't make out anything further north.
To the SW it looks like a series of pads. How many do you see? What do you make of it? Gotta be bullish in terms of the geos seeing at least copper and obvious alteration. I wonder if there are telltale signs in the rocks that suggest a difference between the low grade envelope and the high grade zones. There must be a geo on this board who can shed some light.

Yes, picked that up too PG . Very encouraging for us amateur detectives looking for clues on whether Havieron is going to make us wealthy or very wealthy!!!

Hi Tom, I don’t know if NCM has found the edges of the system but I’m not sure it’s interested per se. This is not like drilling a porphyry system. It is looking for high grade veins and says it has found at least four within an envelope of low grade material.
Initially GGP thought Havieron was a pipe of approximately 300m diameter steeply plunging to the south east to between 1200-1400m deep which it might be but it has significant variances in gold grade. Compare HAD15 & 18, 75m apart to a porphyry. HAD15 hits 28m of porphyry grade envelope at 900m depth to the north whereas at the same depth 75m away HAD18 hits nearly 100m of 4.5g/t Au. HAD17 another 75m south and ~150m deeper hits 45m at 7g/t. The hole picked up early by Paddy that is about 100m east of HAD17 will be interesting when we see results. I think it’s looking for the bottom edge of the pipe. The hole ~100m west of HAD17 I assume is looking for the top circumference.
It is clearly a more complex system than first thought hence SB “9-12 months” at AGM versus “6-12 months” in Denver. Remember that Newcrest told us in the quarterly the aim for its Phase 2 program: “Drilling is ongoing to demonstrate the continuity and extent of the high-grade mineralisation.”
Have a look at PGs latest satellite image. In the NW below the campsite there appears to be three new drill sites. (Paddy can you confirm this please.) To me that makes sense since the top of the system i.e. pipe should be there.
In the SW there is at least one (a black spot), perhaps 4 and more even further west. (It’s not clear so I’m guessing.) Again this makes sense if the high grade zones are to the west of the dyke and deeper. These holes could be going 2km, about 1800m depth. Remember HAD 16 drilled east to west likely went over the top of the pipe.
Once the high grade zones are discovered then you would expect a cluster of holes nearby to confirm continuity which looks to be the case in the east.
6 rigs, 3 weeks per hole, about 8-9 holes per month, 9 more months equals about 80 holes plus completed holes adds up to ~100 holes. A lot of data there!
It’s fun trying to piece things together in the absence of commentary from Newcrest. My advice is to forget about the day-to-day price action and keep an eye on what Newcrest is doing.
All the best,
T

Ah SK, Keith Barron! Everybody interested in this junior exploration space should watch his videos. A real life "Raiders of the Lost Ark'. You won't regret it. BTW, if every junior explorer informed its s/holders the way ARU does, the world would be a happier place! NB. GH. :-)
http://www.aurania.com/investors/media/

PG is giving us news every five days via his satellite images! It requires a bit of thinking to work out what Newcrest is up to but if we see follow up holes stepping out then that is a good sign. I m relatively new here but I wonder if people bought on the basis that Havieron was an IOCG deposit and 30 holes would confirm size & grade. Well, it looks like it will take 100 holes based on SBs comment about needing another 9-12 months. As to Newcrest buying out GGP or making an offer for Havieron, it just doesn't make good business sense. For one thing it would scare off junior explorers looking to do JV deals with NCM. There are many majors out there looking for potential Tier 1 assets. The SP is a mystery to me but I know what NCM are looking for and it certainly loooks committed to Havieron. Relax, enjoy the festive season coming up and 31 Jan will arrive soon enough. In the meantime we get a little sugar hit every five days!

"Fortescue to pay $125,000 cash up front and spend $0.5 million on exploration in the first eighteen months".
NCM has already spent $7m (USD$5m) at Havieron in 5 months. All up it could spend close to $100m. There is no comparison. There is no way NCM is allowing FMG or RIO access to Telfer! As I've said previously, if you want to look at similar JVs look at Lundin/PolarX potential USD47m deal. These nearology plays are mostly going to end in tears. Look at Artemis - ARV on ASX - playing Havieron nearology for all it's worth. Why bother with these other names when GGP is so cheap it is the obvious play. I don't know anything about Numis but one day a broker will bring a Black Rock etc. onto the share register and the landscape will change.

I suspect RIO would love to agree a JV but is offering poor terms relative to NCM which obviously has a big advantage with Telfer in close proximity. Have a look at Slide 2 here https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190923/pdf/448rbk88b9pnwp.pdf
RIO with ground north & south of Scallywag with the anomaly clearly trending south into RIO ground. That's why I think GH is keen to drill Scallywag as soon as possible in the 2020 drilling season. A big hit near the RIO boundary will stir the pot! BTW slide clearly shows Haieron sitting between two ENE/ESE trending faults which may have been the conduit for the gold & copper.

As chartbuster has already said, the next level of commitment is not more rigs but driving a decline to the 400RL and drilling from u/g. Looks like rigs have a capacity of ~2000m so saving 400m drilling thru cover to get to the orebody that could be 2km deep gets the adrenalin going. I wonder if SB is talking up other juniors in order to keep a lid on expectations from GGP management about the next JV agreement! So far there have only been low grade discoveries, nothing like the high grade at Havieron. To repeat myself, Newcrest is excited about the high grade zones at Havieron which SB says will "save" Telfer.

In the NW 2 sites cleared and a third prepped for a rig at the most easterly site?
In the SW, are there 4 sites cleared with one prepped for a rig at bottom left? If that's right then it appears two sets of two running parallel NW/SE between two NW/SE features. Are they faults? That could make things tricky. Just speculation. Can't quickly find a geological map to check.

Is this an odd thing for a major s/holder to speculate about publically?
"As a previous Director of Extract Resources representing Kalahari Minerals, I know this is not the first time a critical resource was discovered near to a major mining houses' large but depleting operating asset. In 2012 we achieved an incredible return for our shareholders by being patient and we remain so with Greatland Gold. It is our firm view that with continued exploration success the ownership of Havieron may eventually change to fit the production requirements of Newcrest's Telfer Mine just 40km away."

https://www.miningnews.net/events-coverage/news/1375566/another-year-of-drilling-ahead-for-newcrest-at-havieron

It's all about the grade, high grade gold zones. We need to see continuity of multiple veins going deep. Hopefully the NCM geos, with all of the corporate history at Telfer, are making the right calls on where to drill. Looks like we'll have to wait until end Jan 2020 for the next qrtly exploration update. Who know how many holes will have been drilled by then but expect some clarity on the shape, size and grade of Havieron.