Member Info for Timid

Newcrest don't do FFSs? See here; https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191015/pdf/449hjpy5l1ngdy.pdf
Newcrest is responsible to a whole different class of investor to those here. Those shareholders want to see why $X is spent on Project Y and the management at Newcrest are career bureaucrats keen to kee their jobs and hopefully work their way up the corporate ladder. Thier aim is not to be the heo and not to be a zero either. Beancounters, cautious, everything in order with "t's" crossed & "i's" dotted.
We'll see!
Who else is going to sneak in? Give me one name?

If you're talking at the PFS/FFS stage then fair enough. A lot of people here expecting a t/o offer from NCM in 2020 before drilling is finished. That seems fanciful to me. But by the end of 2021 I guess NCM and GGP will have a good idea what the additional 5% is worth and that sets the pricing parameters for a takeout. But that is a timeline that takes us into 2022 IMHO.

All paper trading SM. Lots of synthetics, option spreads, futures etc that never lead to actual delivery.
Better to guess what will win when confidence in fiat money wanes: cryptos or PMs?
My guess is gold.

What about the reputational damage CB? Newcrest is doing deals all over the world with junior exploration companies. That strategy would dry up. In the meantime RIO has allocated $25m for deals with some of those same JECs. I'm sure that's not $25m for the life of any particular JV. Oz Minerals also has that strategy. "Cutting off your nose to spite you face" comes to mind.
Anyway, good to see varied opinions. Nothing worse than being in a bubble.

Here's an example of how downhole intercepts can be very misleading, especially for deep orebodies and Havieron has the disadvantage of being vertical & steeply plunging. See slide 7. NB true widths are 60% of downhole lengths. That's why Newcrest is keen to get drillhole orientation right.
http://www.cornerstoneresources.com/i/pdf/Presentations_0919_CRICorporate.pdf

Caveman, if management uses the Havieron JV as a template they should be sacked. It is a great JV given the times, don't get me wrong, but there are other models that include staged cash payments that would be preferable. The best recent one I know that the a junior has negotiated is the JV between Lundin (LUN.to) & PolarX (PXX.ax). Of course we don't know the details behind the agreement for toll treatment at Telfer. It may be a killer deal for GGP.

strudel, at various times SOLG had 10-15 rigs operating at Cascabel. Of course Alpala is a huge, low grade deposit.
I'm not sure there is any rule of thumb.

Paddy, those lines around Scallywag show the rocks have been very busy! If the gold was going to find its way to surface you'd think there was an easy pathway there.
There are 3 NS structures that cross the NE/SE trending Havieron Fault in what appears to be the area of the hinge zone where Kraken is located. It looks exciting from every angle: surface geochem, geophysics, regional geology, similarities to Telfer, etc.
I would be cautious about ranking this anywhere near Havieron at this stage. Havieron is a once-in-a-decade discovery.

There's no chance that management will let Scallywag go down the same path as Havieron. It will want to put down 20 holes - five into each of the four high priority targets. After that hopefully one is proved up as the main target. At that point we have to hope that the data is good enough to interest RIO so that Newcrest doesn't assume it is the only viable JV partner. And this time GGP needs to ensure cash payments as well as money spent on drilling. Management has to stop the continual need for CRs.

Plappers, ignore the holder and this wine bottle approximates what Havieron might look like. The top of the bottle is in the northwest - https://www.getinhours.com/products/details/resin-abstract-horse-head-sculpture-wine-bottle-support/1683.htm

You are asking good questions Jerry.
The fact that NCM has changed drill direction means that they have a better idea of the shape & orientation i.e. Havieron is vertical, plunging steeply to the SE so drilling SW/NE will give geos a better idea of true widths. ATM we don't know true widths although there seems to be a good sense of the footprint. True widths are important for the high grade zones.
The Havieron fault may be a control as it runs SE/NW.
If the plunge is very steep then calculations about true depth are immaterial but drilling across the cylinder will be a big help in seeing where this series of high grade zones are located and their actual size.
That's why NM want to drill 100 (?) holes in total over the next 9-12months.
Another question: "When did it become accepted wisdom that blockcave mining would be the method?"
I have talked to a mining engineer about Havieron. He thinks if the high grade zones are wide enough NCM could selectively mine those before coming back later to mine the low grade envelope.
We really are just speculating ATM in the absence of a whole lot more required info.

Yes, that's correct. The 2g/t au equivalent is a number that's been bandied about. I have no idea if that number has been calculated from results to-date or is the lowest number used by Sprott and so has become the de-facto base case.

In the metals space RIO's strategy is primarily copper whereas Newcrests is primarily gold. RIO is not interested in NCM for that reason. Winu is not yet big enough for RIO. It is 60-70km from Telfer. I'm not sure of Winu grades to know if trucking to Telfer is an option. If it became a stranded asset for RIO I assume NCM would be interested.
Thanks Paddy, I did say "lower" because FDN is pretty damn good!
Jerry, I think we are still speculating at to size but it appears 300m diameter cylinder 1000m deep is reasonable. I think it is possible stretching further NW based on the latest drilling news & images. The problem is extrapolating this 300m (or other) diameter footprint down plunge. It needs more drilling. I think we should be excited by then NW trend and Paddy's find about the Havieron fault which is also trending NW.

FDN has indicated reserves of 24mt @9.5g/t Au for 7.4moz. It has another inferred resourse of 12mt @5.5g/t for 2moz.
That is seriously high grade. another thing at FDN is that the discoverer, Keith Barron, believes there are more high grade deposits still to be found. That is partly why Newcrest invested. Lok at it's JV agreement with LUG about regional exploration. Newcrest is looking for elephants. Which is why I'm also invested in Cornerstone Capital in Canada. Junior partner to SOLG at Cascabel too.
Havieron is looking to be a lower grade, huge tonnage bulk mining operation. Our big hope now is for a significant extension to the NW as per Paddy's link and of course exploration luck that might turn up a series of significant high grade zones.
Big news coming from Newcrest at the end of Jan.

Jerry, I scanned back thru AGM comments but missed target date for MRE. Is there one?

Other than Newcrest & RIO, name two companies you think could possibly entertain a bid for GGP? Company tied to a smelter or metals trader?
This whole "monetizing" theme that came out of the AGM has generated a lot of discussion.
Personally, I don't think Newcrest needs to bid & RIO couldn't be bothered for only a 25% stake. If GH approached Sandeep Biswas about an offer that's different.

I keep saying that the sort of investors you are hoping will invest in GGP will not until it's listed on another exchange. I'm not making that up. Some fund managers have told me!

one day, replace Cadia with Havieron!
https://twitter.com/NewcrestMining/status/1202415528922365953/photo/1

Whoa Looking! That very low OPEX comes from investing very high CAPEX up front hence my comment about deducting CAPEX as part of any valuation. Of course the beancounters have their spreadsheets so just press a few buttons and a valuation spits out!

Of course Newcrest doesn't need our 25%!