Member Info for Timid

Trucky, is 6 litres of diesel per kilometre reasonable for one of the CAT785D carrying 140t payload?
It sounds like you should be able to give us an accurate figure since you drive something similar.
90km round trip = 540l
what's diesel cost out there? $2/l?
That's $1080 per trip just for fuel.
Anyway we are all interested in your actual numbers if it is not a trade secret. :-)

Hey CB, seems you are one of the resident experts. Can a Cat truck like these do the 90 km round trip or are they for short haul trips? https://www.cat.com/en_AU/products/new/equipment/off-highway-trucks/mining-trucks/18089285.html
I did some research and it seems like diesel fuel costs would be ~$A1000 per round trip for a ~140t payload but it this too heavy for a haul road to Telfer?
Here's a 13 year old CAT with a payload rating of ~60t selling for $3m! https://www.machinerytrader.com.au/listings/construction-equipment/for-sale/30098591/2007-cat-785c
It's going to cost a fortune to truck ore to Telfer. I just don't know how much.

Yes, SB is clearly guiding us towards that 2.5g/t Au equiv. no. schlemiel. He's defined that when pointing to the HGZin HAD023.
So 3moz at 2g/t Au & 0.4%Cu, for example, would do the trick it seems.

Hi kieffy,
One of my plays has shut down rigs because of a total fire ban in SA. At least that isn't a problem in the Paterson but what about the wet season?
Some resuts for holes drilled into the NW quadrant would be handy looking for HGZs between 400-600m.

whoops, too many thoughts leads to poor execution
My mistake - my industry colleague thought $40/t to get ore to Telfer i.e. $1t/km. Broker looking at NQ development nominated a figure of $60-70/t depending on govt. contribution to road maintenance etc.

MFU - I am not a resident expert, just an amateur punter hoping to find information that helps me make my decisions.
Your question is a very good one. The issue of ounces at Havieron comes up all of the time. But total oz should not the question but grade. You can have 3 or 20moz but if it is low grade than that resource will never be converted to reserves unless the gold price moves higher.
The problem for Havieron is the 45km to Telfer. What do you think the transport cost is going to be? Lots of things go into calculating that including but not limited to: cost of building and maintaining the road (what sort of road?), cost of buying and maintenance of trucks, cost of operating those trucks - wages, fuel etc.
I had a guess at $A40t/km from a colleague in the industry. Maybe it's higher. Another estimate , this time from a respected broker, for another project in Queensland, has a number of $60-70t/km. That is a serious number because that is the equivalent of 1g of gold. Is it true? We may have to wait for a PFS or Scoping Study to find out unless others here have done some work on it. But it's a crucial part of the puzzle.
So what is 3moz worth? A. It depends! What's the grade, how deep is it, what's the CAPEX? etc., etc.
The rampers will tell you look at Cadia, look at OPEX there, without mentioning CAPEX.
PG has pointed to Oz Minerals development of Carapeteena. Have a look there as part of your DD.
All the best,
T

I get the impression there is more than a little concern here when some conversation breaks out and the positive case for GGP is put forward. Very telling.
All the best, and keep an eye out for those unsubtle rampers all over this BB making ridiculous predictions.
One more time: BUY - but forget those 20moz & 15 or 20p SP guesses.

mickey1122 "Newcrest want all of us and will swoop june max i, that was the undoubted feeling I got from the AGM not a theory or a fellow posters opinion or a hunch ."
"feeling" "hunch" "opinion" Are you butchering the English language ?
The semantic range of each of these words would surely allow them to be synonyms.
But you're suspicion, notion, inkling of a t/o by NCM is based on some body language from GH/CB?
I will be very surprised if it happened but hey, money on the table speaks volumes!

One more thought I should have added schlemiel:
People may have forgotten that NCM started off with two rigs and ramped up to four then six. It didn't happen o/n . So we should see the results of those additional rigs in Jan. The amount of data coming in for the geos to look at and interpret must be amazing. I'm assuming NCM is flagging additional rigs in the new year because geos are more confident on where to aim them. No one wants to fire 1800m blanks. They cost a lot of money!

JS, check out Fosterville, Kirkland Lake. I'd have to reread some stuff and I'm a bit lazy. There are other things I'm working on.

Hey schemiel, I agree with you. I'm very happy SB thinks that way about Havieron. GGP is a significant part of my retirement fund.
All I'm saying is that it is early days, IMO much earlier than some posters, including PRIM, are suggesting. Of course I am only working off publically available info which is why I keep saying we should wait for January NR from NCM.

JS, GH is working on a theory at FT. Theories aren't worth anything. In fact the Zn may have disproved the theory.
MS - very important for continuity. There are many occasions where geos have had to reassess their understanding of a deposit as they get more drill results. There's been a lot of talk here about block cave mining as if it is a foregone conclusion. Newcrest says it is targeting a series of high grade zones. But no one here has been able to find out what NCM means by HGZs unless I 've missed it.

JS, enjoy CT. My wife has been there, says it's beautiful, wants to take me one day.
Re: FT - for a USD80m mkt cap company? complete waste of time. The sooner GH gets rid of all these distractions the better. The best targets are in the Paterson. If someone else hits in Tassie or elsewhere, good luck to them. We are here for the PR, not risking dilution chasing other plays. There are probably better ones we could spend our cash on.
MS - Bold statement but NCM was clueless with early drilling. Scissor holes and what may be verticals show it still does not have a handle on Havieron.Maybe it does by now. Just my humble opinion and would not share it except that you asked.
All the retail punters on here don't want to hear my cautious views. :-(

Good morning Jerry, must be a cool one because you have a subtle way of stoking the fires with that question!
I am very cautious since NCM changed the direction of drilling from east/west to SW/NE.
Also, PG & I are having a discussion about his latest image. It mainly revolves around trying to understand what my wine bottle analogy suggests ought to be and what HAD014 & 23 mean.
Anyway, suffice to say, I wouldn't be surprised if the next Newcrest qrtly throws up a few more questions.
Almost everyone here seems to have increased certainty since the last update. I'm prepared to wait.
I'll leave it at that.

Calm down Jk1963, you obviously haven't worked out that most of us are on the same side you are on.
We are here to get a 5 or 10 bagger. But there' s no rush and NCM will go thru its normal due process., albeit at a very fast pace in our case. But that timeframe still points to completion of the JV agreement to get to 70% by year end 2020 and an agreement on the other 5% by mid-2021.
The talk of RIO is a distaction. If anything a China buyer is more likely or even BHP although for these guys, and even Barrick, there seems to be a developing/continuing love affair with copper.
Almost any grade is better than Telfer grades!
As shareholders we should be hoping for a quick divestment of everything ex-PR. There'll still be a need for more CRs but at least the money will be spent on the main game.
We need more skeptics here, not more cheerleaders IMO. That's a great way to learn what we don't know.

That is a beautiful thing schlemiel.
One wonders why a top Australian investment bank has slapped a $20 price target on NCM.
Dow Jones Newswires 16 Dec 2019 10:10:20
*DJ Newcrest Mining Price Target Cut 13% to A$20.00/Share by Macquarie
Macquarie not buying the Biswas narrative. Is he just being cautious re Havieron: " which, subject to drilling and further study, could ...."
Anyway, onwards and upwards for Havieron, subject to all the usual caveats.

Most of the people here, including me, are very long and in some cases, very wrong, this name!
There are many reasons why some investors are not interested and others are keen to buy but are restricted by this stock's AIM listing. Others are waiting for more drilling news from Newcrest or an MRE.
As many have said, no one will be surprised when the floodgates open and 100m shares are being traded each day.
All we can do is wait for the next NCM qrtly and hope drilling has further defined the "series of high grade zones" it is looking for.
It's clear NCM is spending money at a very rapid rate to find out if Havieron can supply ore to Telfer. All the public facts point to a compelling BUY case but it has not thus far unfolded as we might have expected.
So we need to keep looking for reasons. IMHP one negative is the need for more CRs. Another might be doubts on management. The fact that Primorous appears to be a ramper doesn't help either. Who knows what other reasons there are but we need to be careful of the "bubble".

Just feeling ****y JK coz I got Kevin De Bruyne in my fantasy league team.
You backed off "incredible" and now using "exceptional" but I won't debate you on the semantic range of those words. 2nd half ARS v MCI just started.

I know the grades at Havieron. I was more wanting to protect the English language!
Here is an example of "incredible' grades:
High-grade Swan Zone (“Swan”) mineralization extended 80 m down-plunge
Key intercepts: 87.6 g/t Au over 7.6 m (ETW 5.5 m);
45.0 g/t Au over 5.2 m (ETW 4.7 m); and
59.1 g/t Au over 5.0 m (ETW 4.7 m)
Part of the problem ATM at Havieron is we don't know true widths. The widths quoted could end up being only 50-60% when more drilling is done.
We have a very good deposit shaping up at Havieron but calm down on the superlatives.

Hey Jk1963 would you mind showing us the "incredible" grades please.