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GGP mkt cap ~USD80m. NCM spending up to $65m to earn 70%. I think if it spends that much then NCM will have proved up more that 10moz at Havieron. Given proximity to Telfer plant deposit could be valued at >$100/oz, so upside from here for GGP SP could be ~4 times assuming zero value for other projects. Everyone happy with a SP of 7p in 18-24 months time?
What exactly does CGP.v need money for beside admin that isn't discretionay spend? ATM it has two JVs with Newcrest & one with Sunstone fully funded. SOLG OTOH spent USD60m on Cascabel last FY. It ended the year with about $32m so on that basis it possibly runs out of funds this qtr. Of course it does have some discretionary spending it could cut back on but it looks like another big CR coming up. I'm not sure CGP has anything to fear. Meanwhile, BHP & NCN are having a little giggle at the childish spat that is making Alpala cheaper by the day.
Don't miss the forest for the trees! Understand electricity supply/demand in India. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India
Please check all facts but I'm pretty sure rural India gets free electricity which might not sound like much to urban-centric countries but India is 60'% rural. At the last election (maybe the one before) one of the two main parties suggested imposing a price to offset the cost of eclectrification. It had to beat a hasty retreat. So there is still a latent demand for TVs, airconditioning, etc (all things with copper in them) from 600m (or more?) people as well as the wiring in houses & wiring to get the electricity to those houses. Similarly, China will continue to increase per capita consumption of copper. And then there is the expectation of a world with 100% EVs. Cu looks good!
PG/Aandi,
I thought I would highlight what Newcrest said it would do next. The focus now on the (at least) 4 sub-vertical high grade zones makes sense. It may mean Holes 19-33 have defined the edges of the system. It will be interesting to see where the next series of collars are located.
25 July, 2019 (NB Focus on the magnetic anomaly)
Next steps for Havieron:
•Newcrest to expand its exploration campaign from two drill rigs to four - third drill rig has commenced operation and a fourth is scheduled to arrive at site in August.
•Drill programme designed to:
o Further define the extent of the upper gold zone;
o Test the depth extents of the mineralisation and associated magnetic anomaly; and
o Search for additional zones of mineralised breccia within the footprint of the coincident magnetic anomaly.
10 September, 2019 (Referring to Holes 19-33? The satellite images showed some big stepouts east & west)
Next steps for Havieron:
•Phase 2 drilling programme initiated, which includes plans for a significant increase in the amount of both step out and infill drilling.
•A fifth drill rig is expected to commence operation in September 2019.
24 October, 2019 NB Focus on high grade mineralisation
Update on Activities at Havieron: (More high grade results before the end of the year?)
•Phase 2 drilling programme has commenced with six drill rigs now in operation.
•Drilling is ongoing to demonstrate the continuity and extent of the high-grade mineralisation.
PaddyGall, this is like finding clues is a murder mystery! Where is Newcrest drilling next? Does it indicate DHEM or visuals (although the gold is not visible) is showing where to drill? NB. on the Newcrest Schematic Plan View Map it notes the magnetic anomaly and shows Havieron still open to the north & south.
Read the RNS “Havieron - Results of New Geophysical Models - 27 Nov 2018”
NB “Result of modelling of magnetic data define a single, discrete, high amplitude elliptical shaped body that is steeply dipping (subvertical) toward the south east with a depth extent from around 800m below surface to approximately 1,400m below surface, but the body may continue beyond 1,400m as this is the current limit of data resolution. “
Then look at this (although note that this is an earlier version from June, 2018) https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/HavHistMag-20-06-18-v2.jpg
And this from August, 2019. Although principally about Scallywag (easy to see why RIO will be keeping a close eye on developments here) note the elliptical magnetic intensity image at Havieron.
https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Fig1-Scal_MMI.jpg
NB. the inner, elliptical ground magnetic anomaly.
This seems to me to be why Newcrest is persevering with drilling as per PGs overlay. Drilling has confirmed the east/west extent as shown in the magnetic survey i.e. ~300m & depth, ~1000m. But what if the magnetic survey is accurate north/south too i.e. ~400m? Havieron s BIG!
At 2g/t Au equiv. there’s ~13.5moz Au.
But of course, it’s all hypothetical until we see assays. Waiting ….. ??
Thanks aandi but I think it is getting really difficult to keep track of holes relative to each other. Here's PGs overlay from a weeks or so ago. It helps with trying to locate newest collars.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OKMPPQdJULJ9TsxGVEJrNMuAgKx5dagf/view
Since you follow Sprott you might be interested in Adriatic Metals, ASX listed but about to list on LSE, HQ in London, deposit in Bosnia. Massive exploration upside IMO but mkt treating it like a development play. Sprott has made 4 site visits. I feel i owe you!
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-adriatic-metals-preliminary-metallurgical-testwork-results.4972889/page-88?post_id=41048397
PG - Always hard to get the tone right with just text but I was being sarcastic :-) I can't see another party having the "muscle" to enter the game except RIO which has the tenement immediately south of Scallywag but NCM has to be favourites in any new JV. Having RIO in the background provides some bidding tension. BTW I'm very confident there will be more good news at the NCM AGM. With the ramp up in the number of rigs its seem inconceivable there there wouldn't be more good news but all in good time because Havieron needs a lot of drilling. Thanks again for you brilliant research.
Poor Newcrest, you can't help bad luck but great news for GGP that NCM initially thought there was something worth following up. Yes, it would have been great if GH had been bold and put a few holes into at least one of the Scallywag anomalies before summer. Ah well, we'll just have to wait for the rig to start spinning in April and hopefully some assays in June.
Hey aandi, the orebody goes deep. The two extreme holes on PGs satelite image are 1.2km apart. Assuming they do no more that meet at 600m lateral distance then that is about 1650m deep (assuming constant 70 degree angle). Of course they will probably go further, especially the hole collared to the extreme east as Newcrest seems to be very interested in mineralisation to the west of the dyke. Subtracting 400m of cover hopefully gives Havieron 1250m depth and still open! Obviously every hole is important but a few key ones I'm interested in are 2 near HAD15, the first one 150m west targeting higher up on the western side of the dyke and another collar ~150m immediately north. This is quite a stepout and if successful will add big tonnes quickly. Another interesting collar - land cleared but no rig there yet - is NW of HAD16 which was a dud hole which is very disappointing as the geophysics suggests Havieron is plunging south or SE so it must have missed the edge. Anyway, good to see Newcrest back there with a hole a bit closer but still south of HAD6. From PGs earlier images Newcrest have drilled quite a few holes from the west, I assume targeting the orebody higher up in the system west of the dyke. It's probably crazy to read too much into collar location but good fun speculating. Thanks again PG. Awesome work!
23 years later it's an even bigger social event MB1965. Tt's a holiday in Melbourne and a lot of offices in other states have long lunches. ASX turnover is usually miserably low on the day. Nobody want to take a call from their broker!
Assuming it is news about Havieron, then the announcement is coming from Newcrest on 5 Nov. If this is the case, I am extremely confident this is BS, cow manure of the highest quality! Why, because 5 November is the 1st Tuesday in November and on this day Australia has a horse race that stops the nation, The Melbourne Cup. Nobody would think of releasing good news on this day. Seriously!
Adding more interest is the fact that RIO has the tenement immediately south of Scallywag. It's a shame we have to wait until April (?) next year before rigs are on site. On other maps it clearly shows anomalies running into RIO ground. No doubt it will be keeping a close eye on proceedings. This is a great place to be if your interest is BIG exploration targets!
JC, will bow to your greater knowledge of AIM/LSE trading. I have only owned two stocks on AIM, SOLG & this one so I'm a novice. I try to deal in fundamentals not charts etc. Because I knew management I bought SOLG from 2p up to 9p and sold on the way up to 45p. Fundamentals wins in the end but mostly in exploration we need plenty of luck. I think NCM is very good at what it does and I'm trusting them find a large orebody >500mt! My guess is H will be very deep, >1.5km. but what is the plan view size and are the 4 s-v HGZs continuous and of sufficient sixe to lift overall grade to >2g/t Au equiv? We'll see.
I think it is a "screaming" buy because of the Newcrest relationship, the fact that NCM keeps adding rigs, CEO SB is enthusiastic etc. I was just trying to give reasons why some investors might have a contrary view and there are obviously many of them selling/shorting. Everyone has to admit there is not informatioon currently available to be categorical about anything. Read the NRs, view the maps, look at Paddy Gall's video. I think the next round of news from NCM is crucial in showing us what stepouts north & south have found. Havieron needs volume - the lower grade envelope - as well as better understanding of the 4 su-vertical higher grade zones, including true width. NCM is telling us that the numbers we are seeing ATM are not sufficient to provide a clear picture. That is why on PGs satelite images there are some big stepout east & west to get down deeper, as well as in-fill drilling to try and get more data on the potential size of the 4 HG s-v structures. I'm bullish because I think NCM will find it/work out the geology/geometry but others are selling based on not being so hopeful.
I think the selling since the 24 Oct. news is based on two things; 1. 4 sub-vertical high grade zones of unknown width inside a low grade envelope; and 2. not much distance so far in drilling north/south and at least as far as most southerly holes are concerned no mineralisation (yet). But in Newcrest we trust!
See on P.14 for how Telfer has been mined. No new info on Havieron but he did mention it. see P.22.
http://www.newcrest.com.au/media/presentations/2019/IMARC_Presentation_2019.pdf
Havieron is not a porphyry Au/Cu deposit where you drill 20-25 holes and hazard a guess as to tonnage. It is probably not an IOCG deposit either. Havieron is going to require perhaps as many as 50-100 holes before Newcrest has a good sense for how it is shaping up. NCM has already said it is complex . (See my previous post or NCM NR.) Another thing, the discussion about block caving is premature. The high grade zones may mean a different mining method is used. Remember that NCM has said it does not know true widths. Most of us have just has guesses at what is possible. We just have to be patient while Havieron reveals itself. Hopefully there is more news before the AGM in 4 weeks.
I don't think MN will be talking about "Canteen" - there seems to be a news blackout from Newcrest on this one - but some of you GGP followers might be interested in ASX: AMG - Ausmex Group. Here's a technical report and Fig.1 is fascinating!
https://ausmexgroup.com.au/the-little-duke-mount-freda-evening-star-mineral-system-cloncurry-district-based-on-core-lithologies/
International Mining & Resources Conference
Melbourne, Aust
11.35am Tuesday, 29 Oct.
Mining Keynote: Growth and expansion plans – where do we see opportunities Michael Nossal, Chief Development Officer, Newcrest Mining
https://mk0imarc7eoc32p6idt.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/IMARC-2019-Final-Agenda-1.pdf