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Update from Charles Archer on his views about Greatland, especially the reaction to the Q2 results:

https://substack.com/home/post/p-169954066

Just a reminder that Shaun Day is presenting on Tuesday, 5th August at 12:05 PM AWST = 05:05 AM UK BST.

https://x.com/Greatland_GGP/status/1950374123756278064

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GxEe60mbUAAAXzd?format=jpg&name=small

https://www.diggersndealers.com.au/

You can register for he LIVESTREAM here:

https://www.diggersndealers.com.au/dnd/wp-login.php?action=register

Local gold miners are making the annual pilgrimage to Kalgoorlie while carrying piggy banks bursting at the seams.

The Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum begins in the gold heartland on Monday after a record year for the precious metal.

Gold miners were already flying high at last year’s Diggers & Dealers and since then bullion’s value in Australian dollar terms has surged another 38 per cent to $5120 an ounce.

ASX-listed producers of the precious metal are now flush with funds — collectively holding more than $7.5 billion of cash and bullion at June 30.

How those riches will be spent, or not spent, is set to dominate conversation among the 2000-plus attendees at the three-day conference.....

......Northern Star has the biggest pile of cash and bullion among miners listed on Australia’s bourse. It held $1.9b at June 30, well ahead of Ramelius in second place at $810m.

Evolution Mining had $760m, Vault Minerals $686m, Greatland Gold $575m and Regis Resources $517m as the other local miners with liquid asset balances over half a billion dollars by the end of FY2025....

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/asx-listed-gold-miners-arrive-at-diggers-dealers-with-more-than-75b-of-cash-and-bullion-to-play-with-c-19536640

Looking at your previous posts Molarcanine, you appear to be a bit of a 'worrier' over Greatland, but possibly with an agenda? If not, then I apologise, but after years on here you get to spot such posts increasingly easily, even when they're very subtle indeed.

Anyway, if just the former, then let me try to put your worries to bed.

Shaun Day has addressed the aquifers at Havieron on several occasions, and most recently when he was in London. Here's what he said:

"There are three confined aquifers there (Havieron). We've been through the upper confined aquifer and the middle confined aquifer, and coming up to the lower confined aquifer, when we restart. I don't think the aquifers are technically challenging for us. It's a well trodden path in Australian underground mining, where you drill, you de-pressure, you put in bores, de-waterise, and move through the aquifer, which is just porous rock where some water can flow, and we've established the pumping to maintain that .

Overall, Havieron is a relatively dry mine. It's very manageable. It's a much drier mine than Telfer so we don't see that as a challenge."

Hope that's useful and settles your worries.

It was a standard maintenance shutdown, but not the whole plant, which is totally normal in any production. we have staff onboard that plan these normal shutdowns, to reduce any effects as much as possible. I've worked in production companies for decades, and it's totally normal practice.

@ Dipp "Last week was a disaster, a large drop after results is never just 'a blip' but hardly terminal for the company at this juncture with a strong financial position."

I don't believe I've ever disagreed with you Dipp, over many years, but I have to on this. IMHO, it was certainly not a 'disaster', but it was somewhere between a 'blip' and maybe something worse. As I've said before, I think we'll now see a general steady rise north, but it won't be in a straight line, it rarely is. It was totally oversold/manipulated, and there are plenty of positives in the pipeline. Yes, it's up to Shaun Day to build back up from what was a poor presentation, and hopefully that'll start at 'Diggers & Dealers' on Tuesday.

The Wall Street Journal

Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Barrenjoey shrugs off Greatland Resources’s disappointing guidance. Greatland signaled production in FY 2026 would be some 11% below forecasts in the prospectus for its initial public offering. Analyst Daniel Morgan said the drivers of this downgrade are confined to ore sources at Greatland’s Telfer gold mine. “Telfer ore is not the main game for the Greatland investment thesis,” Barrenjoey says. Instead, it’s ore from the Havieron deposit, which can transform Telfer from a high-cost mine with a short life to an operation with low costs that can sustain mining for much longer. Barrenjoey said the 24% share price fall that followed Greatland’s FY 2026 downgrade is more than the 5% reduction in its net present value. It retains an overweight call on Greatland. (david.winning@wsj.com)

https://www.wsj.com/business/basic-materials-roundup-market-talk-2a13bec6

Yup, The gold price is rising again, and currently @ US$ 3,350 and A$ 5,190.

In Q1 2025 we sold 89,125oz at a weighted average price of A$ 4,585, which was the major part (excluding Cu) of the A$ 458 million revenue

In Q2 2025 we sold 87,529oz at a weighted average price of A$ 5,014, which was the major part (excluding Cu) of the A$ 487 million revenue.

We're already a third of the way through Q3 2025, and the gold price has constantly been over A$5,000 in July, so looks promising, so far at least...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUAUD

I think that most of us knew that, but, as usual, it'll be played out for a week, or so, by some in the market, and the usual suspects on here, who've re-appeared on here again with their new playmates over the past few days. IMHO, I expect a gradual rise north again now, but it won't necessarily be in a straight line. It rarely is, and only time will tell.

Point accepted, so A$5.18 = £2.52, up 4% on yesterdays close om AIM.

ASX @ A$5.23, down 1.13%, but = £2.55, up 5% on yesterdays close on AIM (£2.42)

Hi Lee, Try to just ignore them, if you can. You can see that the 'usual suspects' have been added to, quite considerably, over the past few days, and they just continue to repetitively, hourly, daily, spout their de-ramping posts. I'm sure we'll be heading north again soon, and then they'll all be gone again. TT

@ Dipp Personally I have no big issue, whatsoever, with the latest report, after many years of investment in GGP, which has thrown just about everything possible at us, even the kitchen sink! Why? Because the latest company views/comments/guidance are now surely based on 'conservative' outcomes.

That's why I've topped up yet again today, despite being completely overbought!

My view! Let's see how it all pans out, but, to date, I've been right!

IMHO, why would anyone sell now? If there was a serious offer from another party, then the sp would probably rise another 30%+ anyway, and based on what? The current sp? I doubt it, because, as for the latest drop, it's surely an over reaction anyway, IMHO.

@ plode I don't know about ten years, but I really do wish you'd just go right now! You've always been a de-ramper, and will surely continue to be one, coming on here whenever the sp drops, then disappearing again when the sp rises. You're so predictable, like night follows day.

Https://bpd-space.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/scp/250729-ggp-scp-jq25.pdf

"GGP moderated guidance slightly to gold production of 260-310koz at an AISC of A$2,400–2,800/oz from 300-340koz @ A$2,400-2600/oz Au announced in April ’25 following assessments of risks related to lower-than-expected grade at the newly acquired stockpiles and some pits planned for FY26."

Which, IMHO, are all conservative views, as also stated by Simon Tyrrell. IMHO, we'll see better, for sure, because why would any company give revised guidance, to only reduce further in the forthcoming results.

Just my opinion, so DYOR!

@ Colenal You appear to have little knowledge about the Oz mining industry. Diggers & Dealers is the biggest annual meeting of all the major party's and the financial markets which support it.

....There was no apology for that from Day.

"I think the capex story is a very positive story, Really what we are seeing here is moving away from a two-year Telfer mine plan to actually feeling we have got a multi-year plan of a longer life Telfer asset," Day said.

Telfer has been around since 1977 and has so far given up 15 million ounces of gold, and a handy amount of copper.

Under Newcrest, and then Newmont, its days were numbered as a mining operation but a small part of its 20Mtpa processing capacity has long been earmarked for Greatland's Havieron mine development 45km to the east.

The combination of Telfer for as long as its lasts as a mining operation, and one of is two 10Mpta processing trains being utilised to process high-grade Havieron ore, was Greatland's value proposition in its IPO.

How long can Telfer keep on trucking?

The big unknown remains how long will Telfer last as a mining operation.

Day said the best possible outcome for Greatland would be to have Telfer (mining and processing) in parallel with Havieron when it comes on line in FY27.

To give that ambition more certainty Greatland is stepping up project capex to what it believes will be a peak level, as well embarking on an unprecedented 240,000m drilling program in FY26 on resource growth, resource conversion and some regional exploration drilling.

But as the $1.1 billion sell-off in the stock demonstrated, investor confidence in the Telfer mining operation being around for the long haul is fragile.

Greatland itself only commits to a "multi-year" mining future at the moment.

Telfer's processing capacity is another thing.

Havieron will start out at a mining rate 2.8Mtpa and possibly grow to 4-4.5Mtpa, which means there will still be a big surplus of capacity even if mining at Telfer does become a multi-year proposition.

In its prospectus the company said as the only treatment site in the Paterson region with surplus capacity, Telfer enables a "potential hub & spoke" strategy to incorporate accretive opportunities".

The Antipa question

It's why the market is betting Greatland will turn its attention before long to acquire its neighbour in the Paterson province, Antipa Resources.

Antipa was a $180 million company in January and is now valued at $350 million. The value increase reflects a couple of things – the impact of gold price on its standalone Minyari Dome project, and speculation that Greatland will strike before long.

Minyari Dome is actually closer to Telfer than Havieron and has been priced up as a $306 million project producing 130,000oz annually at an AISC of $1721/oz for 10 years-plus from a 3Mtpa processing plant treating 1.5g/t gold ore.

It stands to reason Minyari Dome ore should go to Telfer's hungry treatment plant.

Should Greatland decide to move, it starts out with 6.1% of Antipa inherited from its acquisition of Telfer and the Havieron interest from Newmont.

https://www.miningnews.net/barry-

Takeover of Telfer neighbour makes a lot of sense in light of yesterday's $1B wipe-out.

It is not a good look for a newly arrived gold company on the ASX to be slicing 11% from its FY26 guidance and bumping up expected costs.

But that is what the Forrest family-backed Greatland Resources did yesterday, in its first quarterly report on its Telfer mine in Western Australia to the ASX, after its IPO (A$490 million at $6.60 a share) all of five weeks ago.

Throw in a much bigger forecast capex and exploration spending, and the scene was set for a savaging on the market.

By the end of the day Greatland had lost $1.1 billion of its market cap after a $1.65 a share or 24% price fall to $5.24. It is now a somewhat slimmer $3.54 billion company.

The new guidance range for FY26 is for 260,000-310,000oz at an all-in sustaining cost range of $2400-2800/oz. As recently as April, in the lead up to the IPO, Greatland's guidance was for 300,000-340,000oz at $2400-2600oz.

And in the prospectus for the IPO itself there was guidance that a two year "production target" had been set for Telfer to average annual production of 280,000-320,000oz in FY26 and FY27.

Viewed against the two-year prospectus guidance, the new guidance for FY26 is not the shock horror Tuesday's market treatment suggested it was.

The market hate surprises

As a result, the sell-off was likely was overdone. But a surprise is a surprise and the market doesn't like them.

Something clearly happed between April and this week's new guidance.

Remembering that Greatland only got the keys to Telfer from Newmont in December, a fall in expected grades during the June quarter, mainly from inherited run of mine stockpiles, emerged as a concern.

Managing director Shaun Day opened his address on Tuesday's investor call on the quarterly with a roundabout explanation on the issue.

"Let me say that our guidance is different and lower than the outlook previously provided. The reason for that is that as part of the FY26 budget process we undertook a risk assessment," the ex-Northern Star chief financial officer said.

And we felt it was appropriate and prudent to apply a risk factor to the expected grade of the ROM stockpiles, and to some open-pit material to be mined.''

"After we saw the full June quarter numbers, and that gave us multiple data points, we decided to take the decision to ensure that we were taking a conservative approach to delivering FY26 guidance," Day said.

Variable grades in the stockpiles, open pit and underground is nothing new at Telfer. It was not a big deal for Newmont and Newcrest before it as Telfer was but one of many mines in their portfolios.

Single asset pitfalls

But for a single mine operator like Greatland, it is a big deal as demonstrated by the market's savage response to the FY26 guidance downgrade.

The market did not like Greatland's growth capital guidance for Telfer of $230-260 million either. It was more than $50 million high