Member Info for TimberTrader

So, even after the placing, and the massive assets that we now own, our SP is till above what it was barely 6 months ago!

Go figure!

DYOR & GLA!

Still heading north...$2573 currently...

Well done, and, IMHO, a no brainer!

Another big gold/copper strike in the region, which is increasingly possible, especially for us with our ownership, even if only a 'smaller' Havieron, would change the current M&A activity substantially, yet again. It's not a simple scenario, and never has been.

Charles Archer, who I have a lot of respect for, doesn't see a further dilution:

Havieron with its 8.4 Moz resource is estimated to sustain a:

‘2.8Mtpa mining operation with average annual production of 258koz gold equivalent at a lowest quartile all-in sustaining cost (AISC) globally of US$818/oz in steady state (first 15 years), with a 20-year total mine life.’

AISC of $818 and a gold price of $2,500+ and rising is some profit margin. Let’s say for safety, you’re making $1,500 an ounce in profit and generating 258,000 ounces a year.

Anyone got a calculator?

That’s $387,000,000 a year.

I’m happy to correct that figure if wrong — I am a few glasses deep by now.

And as a feasibility study should be out within 12 months, it’s likely that further cost savings will be made shortly, including potential mining throughput expansion utilising a bulk ore handling solution. And I have also been informed that critical KPI oz per vertical metre is a world-leading 7,900-8,000.

The base case is to operate a steady state mining throughput rate of 2.8 Mtpa and an average grade processed of 2.74g/t gold and 0.32% copper. First ore production is planned for H2 2026 and first gold in H2 2027.

The same chaps who put together the Havieron details also put together the base case for Telfer; this includes a high confidence 15-month initial Telfer mine plan:

‘total estimated production of 426koz gold equivalent at an estimated AISC of US$1,454/oz from the restart of processing operations at Telfer (expected to occur in late September or October), which has the potential to generate significant near-term cash flow for the Company from Acquisition Completion.’

Let’s say you’re walking away with $1,000 per oz (yes taxes, royalties, blah blah). 426,000 x 1000 = $426,000,000/15 months = $28,400,000 per month of profit — and we all know Havieron is the real prize.

All this means is that further dilution is not going to happen though for clarity, 60% of initial sales from Telfer are subject to hedging to ensure the capital to get Havieron into production is there...

@ InvestAce Did you not happen to notice what we now own, or did you just conveniently skip over those bits of the presentation?

Yup, and with us now owning Telfer, as well as Havieron, together with the other Newmont assets, we've become, or surely will become, "The natural consolidator for the region", as the 'Money of Mine' team believe.

M&A Activity is heating up in WA as AZY today agreed to sell its 32% non-controlling interest in the 2.84Moz Citadel gold project JV in the Paterson Province to Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) for $17m, cashing up the junior to accelerate exploration at its nearby Minyari Dome gold project.

Recent exploration by the junior across Citadel’s Calibre deposit increased tested shallow resource extensions and together with the nearby Magnum deposit, showed very large-scale exploration upside with just 70-80m of predominantly free-digging, post-mineralisation cover.

The results, posted late August, were seemingly impressive enough for Rio to consolidate its 68% share.

The cash injection will allow the junior to realise a range of exploration plans for Minyari Dome against a backdrop of moves and shakes in the Paterson region.

Rio has spent more than $47m over the years on exploration at Citadel to earn its current 68% interest and the transaction to full ownership is expected to be completed by November.

The Citadel buyout comes on the back of Greatland Gold’s $475m purchase of the historic Telfer gold mine and remaining 70% stake in nearby Havieron from Newmont (ASX:NEM) earlier this week....

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/resources-top-5-antipas-citadel-stake-hoovered-by-rio-as-newmont-leaves-vacuum-at-paterson/

VanEck Gold Miners ETF UP 4.87%

VanEck Junior Gold Miners UP 6.61%

Artemis UP 17%

Antipa UP 18%

Evolution UP 8%

Northern Star UP 5%

POG at another record intraday high this morning, so far, @ $2570...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD

Indeed speedy!

Also, and yes, I've posted this before, but it's now, clearly, MUCH more relevant to us now. It's about how Newmont Mining, with assumptions, correlate a rising gold price with reserve value, with, essentially, reserves increasing by 5% for every $100 increase in the price of gold.

They show this in their annual accounts, as follows:

QUOTE

GOLD RESERVE SENSITIVITY

A $100 increase in gold price would result in an approximate 5 percent increase in gold reserves while a $100 decrease in gold price would result in an approximate 6 percent decrease in gold reserves. These sensitivities assume an oil price of $75 per barrel (WTI), Australian dollar exchange rate of $0.70 and Canadian dollar exchange rate of $0.75. These sensitivities assume all other inputs remain equal, including all cost and capital assumptions, which may also have a material impact on these approximate estimates.

POG currently @ USD 2,540, having peaked at a new record USD 2,543 today....

So, the successful completion of the acquisition of a 70% interest from Callum Baxter in Mineral Resource Exploration Licence EL08/3497, and Callum has also been retained to act as a consulting geologist for the Project.

Callum Baxter who decided to drill deep at Havieron, when at Greatland Gold, and we know what happened there! Now Greatland own Telfer, Havieron, and the other Newmont properties in the Paterson.

Great to see that Callum is acting as consultant geologist here now.....GLA!

The ink has barely dried on the passport after expanding into WA’s gold-rich Paterson Province, yet London-based Greatland Gold is already making moves to list itself on the ASX in order to increase local market exposure.

Greatland is now the proud owner of the historical 32Moz, ~400,000ozpa Telfer gold mine and 100% owner of the nearby 7Moz Havieron deposit, which it had previously had a 30% stake in.

Far be it that there are any intrinsic issues with the projects, Newmont just had to decide how to pay for its costly US$16.8bn takeover of Newcrest Mining last year and considered the assets dead wood out of necessity.

They’re anything but that, as shown by Andrew Forrest-backed Greatland’s efforts and subsequent successful purchase of Telfer and Havieron for US$475m this week.

Twiggy, through his Wyloo Metals investment arm, has subscribed for up to an extra ~US$100m as part of Greatland’s $500m raise to maintain its stake in the not-so-junior gold miner.

On the back of the deal, Greatland says it’s now eyeing to list on the ASX to become a truly rubber-stamped Aussie gold producer.

As if it wasn’t before, the Paterson Province is now abuzz with rumours that mid-tier or major miners such as Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) – which holds the Winu project in the area and its Citadel JV (Rio: 68%, Antipa Minerals (ASX:AZY) 32%) – could further shake up the mining region.

The latter has JV’s with IGO (ASX:IGO) at Paterson and with Newmont with Wilki, as well as its own 1.8Moz Minyari Dome gold asset – alongside others in the vicinity with prospective projects such as Cyprium Metals (ASX:CYM) and Venus Metals (ASX:VMC) – which could all capitalise on a flurry of further potential M&A activity.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/monsters-of-rock-greatland-eyes-asx-citizenship-as-igo-boss-warns-of-lithium-price-volatility/

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyF_lBUUjvE

The rush which has driven the price of gold up by 25% since the start of the year has moved into a deal flow phase which is attracting some of the world’s richest people including Australian iron ore billionaire Andrew Forrest.

Greatland Gold, a London-listed explorer backed by Forrest, has agreed to buy the Telfer mine in Western Australia from U.S.-based Newmont Corporation for $475 million.

That deal, which has been brewing in the background for months, came within hours of AngloGold Ashanti agreeing to buy fellow London-listed gold miner Centamin for $2.5 billion.

This latest phase of consolidation in the gold sector started last year when Newmont bought Australia’s Newcrest for $19 billion, a deal which included the once prolific but ageing Telfer mine.

Newmont quickly earmarked Telfer as a surplus asset, starting a sales process which included a 70% share in the adjoining, but undeveloped, Havieron project.

Greatland, as the owner of the residual 30% in Havieron was always the logical buyer of Telfer which has a big but under-utilised ore processing system which will be used to treat remaining Telfer ore and new material from Havieron.

The challenge for the relatively small Greatland was always going to be the cost of buying Telfer with the $475 million price roughly the same as Greatland’s current stock market value.

Forrest’s 8.5% stake in Greatland and board seats held by close associates are the keys to a major fundraising currently underway to meet the cost of the Telfer purchase.

The addition of a gold mine to the basket of assets controlled by Forrest comes at an inflection point for the billionaire who has been looking to expand away from near total reliance on iron ore, a commodity in steep decline as Chinese demand falters.

Earlier attempts at diversification have focused on energy with investments in solar power and wind turbines and less successful attempts to commercialise green hydrogen made using renewable electricity.

The expansion by Greatland through the Telfer purchase comes after a 37% increase in the gold price since this year last year and a mirror image 37% fall in the iron ore price.

The iron ore slump has seen the price of Forrest’s major asset, Fortescue Metals Group, plunge 45% since the start of the year.

Gold, including a plan to redevelop the Telfer project using ore from the Havieron deposit could deliver a successful new business for Forrest which is not reliant on Chinese demand for iron ore which is expected to remain weak.

ING, a big Dutch bank, warned earlier today that the iron price could continue falling, placing more pressure on the fortune of Forrest and his family which has fallen by 28% from $19 billion to $13.5 billion over the past 12-months.

The addition of a gold asset could help stabilise Forrest’s declining wealth.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2024/09/10/aussie-iron-ore-billionaire-forrest-joins-the-gold-rush/

I haven't seen any mining analyst's, or financial media outlets, whatsoever, saying that this isn't anything but a good/great/f*****g steal, for Greatland!

The de-rampers can spout what they like, but they're clueless!

Just DYOR, but, IMHO, if you snooze, you lose!

@ Naylor442 That's yet to be seen. The current sp is the same as it was in late April this year, so I suggest that, with the massive additions to our portfolio, we'll see a major rerate very soon.

It's like 'Comedy Central' on here today, with the clueless, pointless, never seen before, de-rampers in attendance!

I haven't seen any mining analyst's, or financial media outlets, whatsoever, saying that this isn't anything but a good/great/f*****g steal, for Greatland!

Any of you fools care to differ, with some facts?!

I was unsure earlier this morning about going for the placing for a top up, or just buying in the market. Decided to just buy in the market, as I can do without the uncertainty in getting shares in the placing, and the difference ain't that bad at all. Just my view.