I am an optimist24 Aug 2019 00:33
I am not an engineer, an oily, or an accountant, but I was drawn into investing in HUR by Dr. Robert Tices convictions about oil in N.sea fractured granite basements.
Earlier this year , this was initially proved up when the two Lancaster wells came on stream, and whilst still in a period of flow and various other checks, they have seemingly produced three offloads which tie in with the wells ability to annually
flow 17000 bopd net. And possibly even better.
My simple maths tells me that this amounts to - say - 6,190,000 bop annum converting from gross Brent $60 per bo, to net $40 per bo - say $ 250,000,000 net cash flow in a full year. Not at all bad.
Therefore in a full year EPS would be approx 12 cents or 10p EPS ( HUR EPS for year 2018 3.11p ) . Lancaster performance alone makes the shares look dirt cheap.
Warwick Deep ( 50% owned ) was a non starter albeit there may be some future in it as I understand. Warwick area second drill - Lincoln Crestal ( 50% owned ) is on the cusp of a promising discovery, and should oil be present , is it reasonable
that from a close and very similar fractured granite rock, ( even connected ) it could well produce similar flows to Lancaster,- and also have a second fork well drilled as well.( another possible 17,000 bopd in due course.
The same argument would also apply to the third Warwick Area, 50% Spirit Oil drill later this year
There is also the strong possibility of connection of gas flows to the shore pipeline which would produce additional £ cash flow ??.
All of this makes the HUR Market Cap ( £853M ) look tiny and the SP look even more dirt cheap.
Then of course, as still yet unaccounted for, the massive reserves within the Rona Ridge Licence area and Halifax, Whirlwind and Strathmore potential, to which it is as yet impossible to apply any accurate forecasts. But fractured granite basements in this area have demonstrated what they can produce ( so far ), and the chance / opportunity for success within the area is high.
Should Lincoln Crestal strike with any comparable force to Lancaster, then surely this SP shlould start to rock and roll
I remain as ever optimistic, but would be pleased to have either critical or approving comment. AS I said earlier, oil exploration is not my field. Only hope.