Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I think the ignorance is all on your side, Shuvlin. You clearly don't have a clue what you're talking about.

Hi Happy Scot!
Well. thanks for that. Yes, it's just possible that we do know a little about Russia, about NorNickel, and about PGMs.
Beware - this has still got a long long way to fall. 600 milion quid for EUA is still a comical market cap - £100m would still be pushing it on a realistic appraisal of the assets. This share now has the feeling that a big drop is imminent - the BOD can't avoid the truth for very much longer, and the bottom will drop out once PIs realise that they've been spoofed.

It would be great to see proper information rather than bullish hype from this company. Capex required? Opex? IRR?
How do they plan to make money from these deals considering that the PGM content of the tailings (which are really just chrome mining spoil) is so miserly and they have to truck the heavy tailings so far?
What happens if the rhodium price falls back to earth? Are these deals still viable?

Of course it isn't guaranteed. Nothing is, not even the miserly interest rate you get on a savings account (if you bother to read the small print). The only certain things are death and taxes.
Everything is a balance of risk and return. But the risks here look limited and manageable, and the return looks appealing. IMO, this isn't a 50/50 win-lose scenario, but an 80% chance of winning and 20% chance of losing scenario. That makes Rambler a good bet.

Hi Mad Stork!
Whatever else can be said here, WK is tiny, loss-making, and basically worthless. To get £5m would be a lot for it.

Sotolo and I are old acquaintances from the CEY board. To some people the glass is half-empty, to others it is half-full. We're all only people.
Personally, the more money I have in a stock the more I start to see only the risks, and not the rewards!
And, as the Russians say, irrational optimism is always the surest indicator of total stupidity in a person.

PlayingThe Odds!
Are you really that naive? Or are you trying to fool others?
The so-called "institutional investor" has long since flipped the shares into the market for a quick 5% profit, of course. There was plenty of time for them to go short when the share price was in the high 20s. Then, they settled their position when the new shares were issued.
The warrants add upside for them, but that was always only a sweetener for the deal.
Don't you know how AIM works at all?

Carlito!
I've also worked on some chunky deals in my time. (Including in Russia).
I would never dream of disclosing them on a public bulletin board. Your post is just silly.

Hi Profcheese!
Yes, the Kitco rhodium price should be treated as garbage. I don't quite understand what it represents, but it seems subject to panic drops.
Use the Johnson Matthey, BASF, or MetalsDaily rhodium prices instead - they are far more accurate.
(Remembering that all rhodium is directly traded between buyers and sellers, and there isn't an open market for it).

Hi Bangrak!
As The Sun would put it, both companies are raking in lots of lovely bubbly-jubbly, and at margins more normally associated with drug-dealing than legitimate business...

Hi Sirius!
Given current market conditions, Tharisa are allocating 80% of their costs to their PGM operations and 20% to their chrome operations. In terms of revenue they currently get roughly 50% from rhodium, 25% from chrome, 12% from platinum, 8% from palladium, 4% from iridium, and the rest from ruthenium. Their basket is roughly comparable to SLPs - both are processing UG2 ore.
Tharisa are actually decently profitable as a chrome miner at current chrome prices, and that will only improve once the Vulcan fine chrome plant comes online in a few months, as that has ultra-low operating costs.
I don't want to do the THS vs. SLP comparison again. It's a complex equation. Let's just say there are good reasons why both SLP and THS are both rated 99/99 on Stockopedia. I think both are "Zulu" stocks currently as well.

Hi Ragnar!
Yes, this is decidedly new news. Here's the quote from the article:
“It is a discussion at the board level where I think it will be looked upon favourably,” said Pouroulis when asked about the prospect of a special dividend. “If there is this additional cash generation that we are forecasting for the second half we will look at a special type of dividend,” he said.

I suppose what's not to like is that no firm bid has yet been made.
One really should happen - but takeovers are unpredictable things, and not to be relied on.
Hopefully, if one bidder emerges then a second will follow. A bidding war would be the dream outcome.

Hi Velo!
Well, if fundamentals matter anything at all, then your predictions are going to suffer!
Now Tharisa has published its interims, it has just joined SLP in rating 99/99 (Speculative Superstock) on Stockopedia by the way. Tharisa tends to move AFTER results, so IMO 200p over there sometime in the next six weeks.
JLP I make currently overvalued. But many will disagree with me.

Hi Addicknt!
I have to agree with you on that - Comedy Central.
It must have been total humiliation for Nick Mather to write that comment. It really would be better if he resigned from Solgold's board and left others to it now.
Still, it is pretty clear now that Cascabel is up for sale, and that's good news for Solgold shareholders.

Hi Rick!
If you want to see actual earnings you're in the wrong place. For platinum group miners I'd recommend Tharisa (THS) and Sylvania Platinum (SLP), and if you're prepared to buy shares in a JSE listed company, Sibanye Stillwater. All have flat-out outstanding fundamentals - amazing profitability.
This is a hype stock. No real earnings at all. Just a hope of an asset sale, IMO a vain one.
IMO, EUA is massively comically overvalued - but opinions vary!

Hi Mike!
Marsfontein produced a fair number of "fancy yellows". So we should hope for them.
They also sell for a decent premium over plain old colourless diamonds.

Hi Freedom!
First, take a look at the detailed market research published recently by Heraeus and by Johnson Matthey. Links have been put up on both this board and the Tharisa board. Those pieces will inform you far better than I can in a quick post.
FWIW, this is my take. Firstly, you need to separate out the metals...
1. Palladium and rhodium are driven by automotive demand (use in catalytic converters in ICE engines). Both are in deficit and have been for some time, rhodium very much so. IMO, prices will be volatile, not least due to the presence of "hot money" in the market, but I see prices remaining generally high for at least 3-5 years. Eventually, increasing production of battery EVs will bring the market back into balance, but that's not going to happen soon.
2. Iridium and ruthenium are being driven by excitement over the coming "hydrogen economy" and a fair amount of speculation. Expect big swings, but I expect the long term trend of both metals to be firmly upwards through this decade. Due to its key role in hydrogen hydrolysis and its incredible rarity, iridium could literally go to the moon.
3. Platinum's prospects are more complex. Its price is a product of both industrial demand and investment demand (bars, coins, jewellery, use as store of value). As an industrial metal it is not currently in deficit, though demand will increase through the 2020s as hydrogen fuel cells become widely adopted. But its future price will depend on investment demand - if investors start liquidating their stocks that will provide enough supply to keep prices capped for years. If investors start buying more platinum as a store of value, then the metal will move into industrial deficit and the price could boom. I don't really know how that will turn out - sentiment is key, and that's hard to predict.

I hate the word "multi-bagger" - I think it's crass. But it is a useful word; it does describe something succinctly.
And RMM now has "multi-bagger" written all over it. It's not without risk, but (at this price) the risk-reward is tilted heavily towards gains over losses (IMO).
Good luck to all in fishing the very bottom of this drop!

Hi Mr Tibbles!
FWIW, I agree with almost every word of your analysis. It was perhaps more by luck than skill, but I'm grateful that I sold back when the share price was over 200p. If we'd known the truth back then, the share price would never have risen so high.
I wish Martin Horgan well. He's got a big job in front of him.
I'd still like to see resignations or sackings from the board of all directors who have been in office for more than, say, two years. It's not good enough for them to plead that they didn't know what was going on.