Member Info for TigerByTheTail

On West Africa, three thoughts:
1. Finally, Centamin keep a promise to report the results of their very long exploration programmes. Better late than never. Thank-you, Martin Horgan!
2. But, the results aren't exactly impressive - especially from Batie West. Why so much money was poured into this exploration campaign for so long is another example of the incompetence (and possibly worse) of the old board. Eventually, Doropo might become a mine, but it is still a long road.
3. Egypt could offer better long term growth opportunities for Centamin. But we don't have the signed agreement on the new licence areas yet.
All in all, I can see why the share price is down this morning.

Here's the link the full interim results on the website (as poised to the summary in the RNS):
www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/financial-results/2021/interims/booklet.pdf

I think we all need to forget our research and predictions a little bit, and imagine what we would think of those results if we were coming to the company for the first time.
If so, I think we'd think they were stupendous. All metrics up strongly, debts wiped out (and then some), interim dividend bigger than combined dividend last year, etc. And I think we'd conclude that this company was heavily undervalued.
A 3p dividend is welcome, but really investing here has to be about capital growth. There is a clear path to a share price of 300p - if only the seller finally stops selling! (IMO, the most welcome piece of news Phoevos can give us today is precisely that!).
In other news, rhodium is at $22,750/oz according to both MetalsDaily and JMAT. It looks like it is finding a new level at this lower (but still spectacularly high) price. Don't trust the Kitco price!

The original Samancor / SLP deal goes way back to 2007, I think.
The deal has proved stable - so far. Samancor also own a chunky stake in SLP via a company called Africa Asia (they have been reducing this stake of late).
I've always wondered if Samancor won't attempt to "improve" this deal for them - i.e. strong-arm SLP into accepting worse terms somehow.
Finally, here's a bit of muck-raking scandal from a couple of years back:
www.newframe.com/whistleblower-on-how-chrome-workers-were-robbed-of-billions/
Nothing came of this, of course.

Nope, ruthenium really has gone from $430/oz to $800/oz in a matter of ten days.
As SLP produce quite a lot of it (see the 6E prill split that SLP published in the last quarterlies) this is a nice little additional earner for them.
Still waiting to see where rhodium settles - puzzled by the very strange $16,500 price quoted on Kitco, which is miles below all other sources. Possibly it is an error / freak event / margin call or something.

Hi Lucky!
SLP reprocess the tailings and run of mine chrome ore of chrome miner (and ferrochrome producer) Samancor - after Samancor have had the first pass at extracting the chrome from the ore themselves.
SLP actually have an amazing deal with Samancor (thanks, Terry!). SLP reprocess what Samancor clearly believed was a low value waste product, and extract both PGMs and yet more chrome from it. The chrome they give back to Samancor for free, as a kind of payment. The PGMs they keep for themselves.
My guess is that Samancor, when they signed up to the deal almost ten years ago, had no idea how valuable the PGMs that SLP extract and sell would prove to be. IMO, it's been a costly mistake for them.
SLP run a very low cost operation as they have no mining costs.
This all comes with some risks and caveats, of course. SLP have a finite life of mine - currently I'd estimate it at 8-10 years. They are also dependent on Samancor, which is an obscure private company with controversial owners. The basic deal between SLP and Samancor has been stable for years, but there is risk in it. And, finally, it's not clear how SLP are going to develop and expand their business in the future.
In contrast:
Tharisa are much bigger thanSLP - they produce a lot more ounces of PGMs and a great deal of chrome as well. They have higher costs, as they must actually mine the PGM/chrome bearing ore from their open pits. They have a much longer life of mine. They are not dependent on any business partner in the way that SLP are dependent on Samancor. They have much clearer growth opportunities, and they are investing to improve the current business (i.e. building the Vulcan plant now).
IMO, both are excellent companies and definite "buys". But I'd rate Tharisa higher than SLP, because it is simply a more stable business with a clearer growth path.

JMAT London price for rhodium this morning stable at $22,800/oz (same as Hong Kong earlier).
Tharisa have just tweeted a new basket price with rhodium still at over $26,000/oz. I don't know what that is about. But it does seem to me that the Kitco price ($16,500) is either an error or an outlier of some kind or the result of a seller being forced to liquidate a position due to a margin call.

Here's the latest JMAT market report on PGMs:
http://www.platinum.matthey.com/documents/new-item/pgm-market-reports/pgm-market-report-may-21.pdf

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/documents/new-item/pgm-market-reports/pgm-market-report-may-21.pdf

Hi Stoodio!
The one strategy that always worked with this share long-term is - always buy the dips!
I didn't get as many as I liked first thing this morning, but I got a few. Congratulations to whoever got the shares on sale at 115p.

Hi Sotolo!
Firstly, don't underestimate how lazy Mr. Market is. On here we may have paid attention to the pre-announcement of the EPS a week ago, but I can almost guarantee to you that the market in general has not. They will react with surprise to the numbers announced tomorrow. Hopefully, good surprise!
Secondly, I regularly search for news about the chrome tax, but I don't see any. Ferrochrome prices have improved, which substantially weakens the producers' case. IMO, the proposed tax may have been kicked into the long grass. It would be good for all if it has. It's the electricity cost problem that SA really needs to solve.

For me, this morning's RNS is a useful reminder to the market that Ming Mine has an excellent geological endowment at excellent grades (and in a rock-solid jurisdiction). There is a lot of copper in the ground yet to be discovered as well.
All good.

I think we can now say this new coup has succeeded. The army is back in charge. Ecowas are demanding that the coup leader step down and restore power to the civilian leadership, but it isn't going to happen.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-57239805

This still feels to me like margin calls and the forced liquidation of speculative positions.
Note how the Kitco rhodium price is tumbling, whilst the JMAT refinery price is proceeding downwards in a much more orderly fashion, searching for buyers to make a bottom. Note also how palladium has actually risen today, and most of the other PGMs don't seem worried by this turbulence at all.
I think somebody / some people has / have been trading / speculating on rhodium, and they've just got margin called / gone bust in fairly spectacular fashion. If I'm right, then this should all be over in a day or two, and order restored to the market. Though I'd expect the rhodium price to reset to a lower level.

Just posting the latest news and trying to work out the puzzle here. Remember, if the latest military coup succeeds then we're back to an ECOWAS blockade of Mali again, and all the problems and inflated costs that caused last time.
I keep an eye on HUM, chiefly for old times' sake, but I'm in no hurry to give any of my money to Dan Betts.

Hi Ragnar!
Me too...

Adding 2 + 2 together = Cassidy are either walking away from the deal (now the mining licence for Kouroussa has been issued) OR negotiating better terms BECAUSE they are worried that Hummingbird shares (which they are being paid in, nominally at 28p) are becoming increasingly worthless due to the instability in Mali.
The timing fits.

www.ft.com/content/f8ecebc5-6ead-4c8e-8447-3df1aa82b9eb
Ot at least an attempted one - the outcome isn't clear yet...

Here's a summary of the latest JMAT report on PGMs:
www.nasdaq.com/articles/palladium-rhodium-undersupplied-as-platinum-swings-to-surplus-johnson-matthey-2021-05-17
It is predicting that rhodium and palladium will remain in deficit this year, but platinum will be in surplus.
JMAT's London price for rhodium is $24,000/oz this morning, down a bit more on their Hong Kong opening prices.
There is a big gap now between the JMAT price and the Kitco price ($19,000/oz). In particular, the Kitco price lurched downwards at about 14.30pm US time yesterday, which automatically makes me think there was a margin call and a forced liquidation of a trading position. But I'm not sure how that works given how rhodium is traded. All in all, I wish I knew what the Kitco price is actually reflecting in the real world - it seems to only change twice a day, once in the morning US time and once in the afternoon.
All in all, I think the rhodium price may be resetting downwards. My blind guess is that we will settle around $20,000 to 22,000 / oz. That still makes Tharisa one heck of a profitable company.

Hi JSCapper!
Yes, this puzzled me as well. Didn't the River Pipe drill sample weigh only 500kg? How can they have possibly recovered so many diamonds from such a small amount of material?
Or does it refer to all the work done on Thorny River / Marsfontein to date, including the bulk sampling of the dykes and the Marsfontein tailings? Surely, it must do.