Member Info for tidd83

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/providence-postpones-its-survey-pending-a-new-permit-1.3716295?mode=amp

John wood on Vox https://audioboom.com/posts/7097923-sdx-energy-sdx-infrastrata-infa-and-malcy-on-fpm-sdx-ppc-amer-matd-rre

There is your clarity OW, straight from the horses mouth via the CEO John Woods tweet this morning. I dont see the ambiguity in the RNS personally it’s pretty clear.

In addition to spuds response, the comment made by JW also further cements the points I’ve highlighted below. “Completing FEED successfully and receiving independent confirmation that the Project can be constructed within our financially modelled ranges is a credit to the entire team that has worked on the Project. We are now working on planning the next development stages of the project whilst ensuring all elements come together for a successful final investment decision before the end of H1 2019. I would like to thank Costain, Deep KBB, Atkins and WSP for the delivering the FEED study in the time available to realise the EU Grant."

Older, the initial comment highlights the expectant budget range. The IRR will also likely be irrelevant from any previous modelling given the project life is expected to increase to around 40 years. “The economic modelling undertaken was on a range of cost estimates of £100m - £120m for delivering Phase 1 (2 caverns) and £300m - £330m for Phase 2 (adding an additional 6 caverns, resulting in a total of 8 Caverns). The combined FEED studies have delivered P90 cost estimates of £114m for Phase 1 and £265m for Phase 2, with an additional risk allowance for a total of £11.6m for both phases.” Total for all 8 caverns is £379m as you alluded to, phase 1 for two caverns came in under budget at £114m and phase 2 similarly under budget. Their initial cost projections were in the range of £400-£450m.

data were analyzed using a leading wellbore modeling software system to determine the potential Initial Production (IP) rates achievable from a single horizontal development well. This analysis indicates that the tested basal oil bearing sandstone package is of high quality with an average test derived permeability of c. 400 millidarcies, confirming the high productivity potential as demonstrated during the well testing operations. The analysis forecasts that a 1,000' horizontal well could deliver an IP of c. 12,500 BOPD & c. 11 MMSCFD (c. 14,300 BOEPD) through a standard 4.5" outer diameter (OD) production tubing under natural lift. https://www.investegate.co.uk/lansdowne-oil---38--gas--logp-/rns/barryroe-well-test-analysis/201205240850210160E/

Following the successful testing of the lower basal 24' net oil bearing interval, which flowed c. 3,514 BOPD & 2.93 MMSCFGD (c. 4,000 BOEPD, see RNS announcement of March 15th), an additional 17' thick net gas bearing section was perforated to test the potential of the upper part of the basal Wealden sandstone section. The surface test spread equipment was optimized for the lower oil zone test and was therefore equipment constrained on this gas zone test, which achieved highly productive flow rates of c. 7 MMSCFGD & 1,350 BOPD (c. 2,516 BOEPD) through a restricted 36/64" choke, with a flowing well head pressure of c. 1,700 psig. The productivity of the gas bearing interval far exceeded expectations and thereby constrained the ability to fully open the well up to its maximum potential. Preliminary modeling of the pressure data indicates that a co-mingled flow rate of c. 17 MMSCFGD & 3,350 BOPD (c. 6,183 BOEPD) at a flowing well head pressure of c. 500 psig is achievable. Well suspension operations are now complete and the rig will be demobilized to the UK imminently. https://www.investegate.co.uk/lansdowne-oil---38--gas--logp-/rns/barryroe-well-testing-update/201203230821379438Z/

Perspective*

DD by the Chinese consortium prior to farmin would have assessed existing permitting and work to date. As stated, storm in a teacup - An Taisce would dispute anything from an environmental prospective.not sure it would gain much traction given approvals are already in place at government level. Reapplication perhaps if required but nothing I deem to be of concern.

Total of six wells still be calculated from the 2018 program which as we know is funded. 2200bopd is my minimal projection on completion of this program which would still be 10% ahead of initial forecast. Ortoire is already being targeted for 2019 with a combination of its own large gas/oil structures combined with work over program and a likely 10-15 well development program across the blocks. No appetite to place and all funded from existing cash flows, debt will likely be re-negotiated but not even of concern until Jan 2020 at which point TXP will likely be surpassing 3000bopd with or without a successful strike on any of the multiple high impact Ortoire targets which alone could triple total production prospects overnight.

“Even though the production is rising, it has not risen as high as I had hoped on the number of wells drilled but we still have 4 more by year end to come in to production.” 2fat, based on theirmodelling - they are actually way ahead of schedule. Total drilling program should surpass around 2200bopd. Sell of hugely overdone, cash generation is currently sitting around $15m per annum.

Well just to clarify on some of the below points, I very much am still a holder so JTD you can put that theory to bed. A lot going on in personal life at present so I rarely post/tweet much these days other than a look in or RT but since my name popped up in a topic (flattered as I am) I thought I would set the record straight. Excellent update today from Tlou, project is still forging ahead operationally and the RFP as we know is submitted, short term noise and pessism by some is like water off a ducks back. Switch off and stick to convictions, the wider market is having a wobble even Donks deadbeat KMR is heading south.

Latest PB interview; https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/11200/touchstone-declare-solid-quarter-production-in-q3-results

Just caught up and watched. So much news in the immediate future, FEED completions and project equity financing. Early pre-stage development and another six offtakers in discussions with an LOI from one already.. Outstanding.

The larger numbers printed all over the RNS are merely there to confuse. The fact remains, the net flows at such an early stage are around 156bopd attributed to UKOG. Regardless of what KL4 flows it won’t be enough to warrant a £93m mcap. There are companies producing 11,000bopd with cash in the bank and production assets diversified with an mcap less than this.

And given Brandon Hill hold a majority stake of the company and their directors have recently been buying LOGP on market I think they are going to run a tight ship here. After all, it is in their interests.

Gabriel the royalties are sliding and related to production/POO - I think these are available in the latest presentation. I agree that workovers will satisfy decline rates and these are currently calculated around 30 per annum with the additional wells adding to total production output today. The point I am making is that the exploration/production program is self funded at present. If TXP were to flip to a sustainable work over program only for 12 months they would build a solid cash pile ergo they are cash generative.

Gabriel, netbacks for Q3 were $37.13. The royalty rates are also not fixed at 18% so the slump in the POO will be reflective of this. Now let us assume TXP decide do not proceed with further exploration and development drilling and instead enjoy the fruits of the previous campaign - having already booked net earnings for the quarter of $267k I’m a little unsure how you assume they are not generating cash?

Nothing’s changed and the company are still kicking out cash month on month. Current weakness on Brent with Trump calling the shots, still $65 - 6 months ago you couldn’t have hoped for such a result. 2000bopd and more to come online before year end. Sell off presents opportunity, company is still only capitalised at £23m - one of the lowest cost and profitable producers on AIM.

Moving north on announcement of Saudi cuts by 500k