Member Info for tichtich

Good news about Gulf = bad news for energy stocks

That said, UKW seems to be pulled in both directions, being both an energy stock (high gas prices good) and a UK stock (high gas prices bad). But the gas price factor seems to be a bit stronger, so UKW is slightly up since the start of the crisis.

ADM share price seems to be holding up quite well compared with most other shares. I wonder if that's because the market thinks that higher petrol price means less driving, so fewer accidents. Just a thought.

I wouldn't call it a "paper" write down. The mine closing earlier means less metals extracted and less earnings. That's a real loss.

P.S. I posted before seeing yours, ToD. Yes, I forgot about that. Possible wind down. Sigh.

This sentence is interesting: "Given the competition for capital in the private capital markets, the Board considers it unlikely that other individual asset sale processes would deliver equivalent shareholder value in the near to medium term"

If "would" implies that this is a counterfactual, and they're not actually going to sell other assets, that's OK. Just keep using the assets and generating cash flows. But they recently talked about returning capital to shareholders. No, don't sell off assets at big discounts so that you can return a fraction of their value to me! I'd rather have a dividend cut. Unfortunately, I've seen too many other funds where institutional investors vote for for a poor return of capital over running the fund for the long term.

I should have sold a few months ago, when the price was higher. But now I'm going to stick it out rather than sell at this price. The likelihood of higher energy prices (from the Gulf crisis) should be a long term benefit, if they will just do the right thing and take a long term view.

"So the activities of ICE will have no effect on LGEN while a 5-yr decline in LCG capacity in Qatar will."

But the US elections (which are likely to be affected by the factors I mentioned) will probably have an effect on stock markets. True, that's further in the future and more uncertain. And I get that some people would rather avoid politics here. But I think that ship has long since sailed.

Yes AERI is in a worse place than RESI. My point was that, when a company/trust is determined to wind up, they can end up wasting a significant amount of shareholder value.

"Sooner he gets slaughtered in the mid-terms and becomes a lame duck pres the better."

He and his allies will try to steal the elections. He already tried to steal the 2020 presidential elections, and he is in a far more powerful position this time. In 2020, the Department of Justice refused to go along with his steal. This time round he has staffed the DoJ, FBI and DHS with lawless, lying uber-loyalists who are already breaking the law and defying the courts. He has at his disposal a lawless paramilitary force of ICE goons, who have already murdered two protesters and shot numerous others. This is not going to end well.

I agree that Trump is a clown (if you're thinking of an evil clown armed with a flame thrower). But as far as I can see, he hasn't affected LGEN's dividend (except that higher inflation may reduce the real value of the dividend). Moreover he's made buybacks cheaper, and provided a possible buying opportunity.

"You’re either a matter of weeks away from making 20% or you’ve got an ongoing 11.5% free cash flow yield if the deals fall through."

Or the deal falls through and they sell at a lower price, minus substantial costs. (Sorry for the pessimism, but I've just been burned by AERI, where they just sold an asset at 17% below previous valuation and paid 13% of the sale price in costs!)

I would love it if the deal fell through and they reversed the decision to wind up the company (a decision I voted against).

P.S. I just noticed that UKW is up 2.3% today. So perhaps you're right, Stat01. 😉

Still waiting for 350p before adding any more. 😉

As I recall, about 50% of projected future revenues (by NPV) are fixed (index linked) by subsidies and CFDs. In terms of current revenue, that might well be about 60%, leaving 40% dependent on market pricing. But market pricing doesn't necessarily mean spot. If I'm not mistaken, UKW has supply contracts for up to 3 years ahead.

At the moment the UKW share price is holding up when most UK shares are falling, so the market seems to be giving it some credit for higher gas prices, but not a huge amount. I think it will depend on how long the crisis lasts and how high gas prices go. I don't think there'll go as high as last time.

Today's interim report doesn't contain much new in the way of figures, since we've already had a quarterly fact sheet going up to the same date (31 Dec 2025). But there's some interesting commentary on the state of the shipping market, which takes recent events into account.

Reading yesterday's RNS, I see that we spent nearly 13% of the disposal proceeds on disposal costs, and on top of that there are costs for the return of capital and for managing the wind down. Combined with the fact that the assets were sold at 17% below previously calculated NAV, it doesn't look like we'll be getting much of our money back. Shame on the board (and institutional investors) for deciding to wind the company down.

A referendum in Kazakhstan has just approved a new constitution:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/kazakhstan-referendum-new-constitution-demonstrates-diminishing-interest-western-values

The article above mentions possible implications for foreign investors.

More generally, this looks like a continuation of movement in the direction of more authoritarianism, as well as movement away from the Russian sphere of influence towards the Chinese.

Hi Jt_bc_28

I agree that 7.5% is quite high, and it's pulled up by a few very high yielders that may not be so reliable, or may not keep up with inflation. That's why I would like to limit my drawdown to about 70% of the dividends.

The ones above 7.5% are: LGEN, CSN, UKW, SEIT, SHPP, MLPP and FGEN. Most others are in the 5-7% range, including some REITS. Then I have some lower yielders which I hope will grow, to make up for some real decline in the higher yielders. Largest of those is CORD.

Overall, I'm not as diversified as I should be. I have 60% of my portfolio in the largest 6 positions. About 25 positions total, but some are quite small. I would really like to diversify more, especially outside the UK, but it's hard to find good value at the moment.

With huge buybacks coming, the lower the share price the better.

P.S. The overall dividend yield on my portfolio is currently about 7.5%. I still have 2 or 3 years to go before I start drawing an income from it. When I start, I aim to only take out about 70% of the dividends, and save the rest to tide me over any interruptions in the flow of dividends, and possibly reinvest some of the surplus to make up for any long term real decline in the dividends.

Re annuities...

I was considering buying an annuity a couple of years ago. At that time I could have got an annuity rate of about 5%, index linked. (I wouldn't consider a flat annuity. To me the whole point of an annuity is that it's a safe income for life, and if it's not protected from inflation then it's not safe.) I also found out that the remaining life expectancy for a man of my age was 20 years. So, if I lived the average time, I would just get my money back (20 x 5%) plus inflation. In other words, the expected real annual return was 0%. To be accurate, it was a bit higher than 0%, since 5% was the unimpaired (healthy) annuity rate, but the 20 year life expectancy was averaged over all men, healthy and unhealthy. Still, the real average return on my "investment" would be minimal. Of course, the benefit is that it's a safe income for life. But you're sacrificing an awful lot of potential investment return for the sake of that safety.

Whether UKW is the best alternative to an annuity is another question. If you assume that UKW will maintain its dividend in line with inflation forever (or just for the rest of your life), then it's brilliant. But how safe is that assumption? Personally, I hold UKW as part of my portfolio of (mostly) medium-to-high dividend payers, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in any one basket. I don't think UKW's dividend is that safe over the long term.

I think there is a lot to be said for investing for dividends in retirement. Living on dividends, rather than selling shares for income, means you're not affected by the ups and downs of share prices, as long as the dividends are maintained, and this should reduce the "sequence of returns" risk.