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Edgein
I just wanted to check your views on the following point made by Roxi on controlling pressures etc:
"Now we have proved the concept, The JV can use this model if they are going to go with a similar Butane gas injection program on recovering the 1 Billion Barrels"
Are these high pressures common across PRB for Frontier or just very high in this location and COPL have developed the optimum solution to control - I assume the later as COPL didnt see this issue coming, had to engineer solutions as they went along with limited funds before the full GGS installation, now in the process of solving the problems.
Makes SWP staff knowledge useful for the JV on the field and for similar plays in PRB.
Not at all - it was just to refute your nonsense on past years performance being indicative going forward:
"Current 2023 Production is on a similar Trajectory to 2021."
Why prod was not higher before now is well documented - and irrelevant going forward.
All production metrics before April 2023 should now be ignored - they are irrelevant in terms of extrapolation forward / trend analysis as the base situation is utterly changing, with larger diameter steel pipes able to handle all pressures, four times MF rate of injection and well head works /dewaxing pipes.
Todays prod number just confirmed what was said June 5th - AM has the June number by now and may RNA soon and update on the overall field work progress and the drive towards profitability.
Seemed like COPL was taken out on a sea trial speed run to test the engines.
All set for real growth once JV news lands , then its the JVP managing the field development programme scale and timeline with their unconstrained funds.
Credible?
It is if you have completed rudimentary research into the discovery and the probable JVP being Exxon based on the evidence known.
Joint venture timing is unknown, but they have finalised the main technical evaluation and had moved to commercial terms discussions as of RNA April 20th - so + ten weeks and counting :
"Discussions with a large oil company who approached the Company regarding the exploitation of its Frontier oil resources are continuing with current focus on commercial terms. These discussions, as well as the identity of the party involved, will remain confidential until their disclosure is appropriate by agreement. Substantial additional technical evaluation has been undertaken during this period, which has led to a better understanding, and increased confidence, of this resource."
The June 5th update on Cole creek wells:
"The Company is evaluating options for stimulation of the perforations, and the timing of these, in conjunction with its JV discussions."
Morning Doug
Whats your view on the main BH statement on Sedar and their position and this price action
I was thinking another significant shareholder joining that BH may represent
If so, suggests good news soon perhaps.
Thanks Doug
Wonder how much influence the BH has over AM and his comms now, being as they bank rolled him with caveats/riders.
The conversion deal they gained was written by them, evidently not challenged in enough depth or ability to change as COPL were against the wall, its playing out now, dire viewing.
Still personally believe AM ego will give an eventual roi for shareholders - he wants the legacy and respect .
Many examples of shares driven low before the fundamentals realise true value - this is the exemplar however.
Doug - useful to gain your view on this analysis from DBH.
"Anavio had 138 bonds in new year and there are now 141 in Total left. So all the small bh have, as near as damn it converted. Every bond converted is at 6.5 and only the interest is vwap and that is mostly converted to date"
AM thought the JV would be signed in January.
It was COPL proposed deal structure, which he was told the JVP were broadly in alignment with, just waiting on board approval.
Since then - JVP has done more analysis of their own, so as expected the original deal would adapt, delays are understandable.
Its a probable Super Major involved who are not always agile in decision making, need the comprehensive evidence base to make the investment decision =
A Major JVP board committee vote process vs AM as single authority for COPL who calls all.
To the cursory/biased view, its 6 months later and so doubts may be assumed.
To the objective researched, the longer the better given COPL own analysis, RS corroboration and the JVP themselves comprehensive analysis and scale of find which has probably increased in estimated scale in period
JV situation RNA April 20th:
"Discussions with a large oil company who approached the Company regarding the exploitation of its Frontier oil resources are continuing with current focus on commercial terms. These discussions, as well as the identity of the party involved, will remain confidential until their disclosure is appropriate by agreement. Substantial additional technical evaluation has been undertaken during this period, which has led to a better understanding, and increased confidence, of this resource."
increased confidence of the resource
commercial terms discussions have been ongoing for the last two months
Coincide this status with lowest SP it could be walked down to. Either no market belief of JV or full belief and positioning - both work for this dire SP circumstance.
Each to their own view, but the JV is probable imo and hopefully soon as the proof of the asset must be established to JVP satisfaction, its now the matter of how much to pay COPL and by what stages/milestones.
So far the cornerstone BH have abided by the terms agreed with AM, kept the lights on through their funding , have influence and a concern in COPL remaining in business - G&A cost saving reqs and board positions indicative.
Once all bonds either converted/paid off by COPL, the cornerstone BH becomes a LTH solid base of support shareholder, remaining for the eventual sale of asset payout, with X % of the shares in issue through the transition from micro to mid cap and all that follows the sale of the Federal Deep and Cole Creek Frontier discoveries.
Its linear - do you think FD is valuable and will be sold to a Major through a tiered JV deal?
If answer yes, then a share of that that figure is what the BH is here for.
Its not for day trading, shorting, a few bags on the way - potential scale of the deal is unknown, but benchmarks suggest $3-$5 a barrel in the ground value reasonable for onshore USA, then take a view on the discovery OIP journey through to reserves, with EOR assumed.
Add the fully expected prod rise impact, plus JV signed, H wells coming on line by field being delineated and reserves booked, COPL profits rising and debt managed, stability and sentiment increase.
Fair assumption that the BH block of their shares are then held long term in the future, plus PI holding for fair value, other HNW and II taking positions.
Need to wade through the BH being fully positioned, JV signed, drilling prog rolling and staged milestones achieved - but there is a viable route through objectively to market positivity and value accrual.
Risks remain - but they are reducing each day.
Artemis ,
As posted on the BOIL board today:
"Phoenix, I thought you sold? Why are you even here arguing? Since you created your account 9 days ago, all you’ve been doing is disrupting the board. If you’re not invested why waste your time on here?
129 posts in 9 days… impressive."
....... filtered
Its absolutely standard to have NDA - to access the data room to protect both party's interests, not allow players to understand interest from their competition, would cover subsequent negotiations and be further extended.
what are you arguing here? that there isnt an NDA signed for a potential farm in on a 5tcf deal with interested Majors? or semantic point scoring here and on the other board
Non disclosure agreement is in place
discussions are continuing with Majors which is subject to this
what is b.s about that?
if you have a different opinion on the situation then im sure the BB would relish understanding your wisdom on the matter
Phoenix1234
I am sticking to the facts as per RNA and benchmarked performance.
The 1000 - 3000 bpd is from new Horizontal wells in the CC Frontier 1 when drilled - this rate is benchmarked in the PRB and can be achieved, its not just AM wishful thinking.
The current production has nothing to do with that figure - its new additive in time.
The estimated BFU/CC 4000 bpd is by year end estimate, based on previous performance charts before prod got shut down due to high pressures.
Add GGS pipework and releasing the chokes
Add MF injection rate at 4 times lowest rate recently
Add wellhead works, de waxing by paraffin treatment
Add CC well completions plus stimulation
6 months of growth = 4000 bpd is not unreasonable.
Even Fastfood offered 3000 as reasonable by year end, so im hardly being wildly optimistic as you imply.
So what do you think prod may be by year end and why, outline the source data for your opinion.
"We look forward to providing more information around funding plans and potential partners when we are able to do so."
when we are able - reads - we have partners with competing bids and nearing an accepted offer but under NDA until this completes - so they are looking forward to when they can RNA.
Otherwise statement would just remain there is multiple interest in the asset and talks are continuing as previously.
The GGS steel pipe installation replaces the original Atomic plastic pipes, providing increased ability to handle the pressures and allow much higher production. This isnt a one off hope for the best solution but an engineered design for the field life, safely managing the sustained induced flow of oil by the proven MF technology.
The original pipes had high wax build up, had not had any paraffin treatment by Atomic at all, another key benefit going forward is that COPL would maintain paraffin treatment as a matter of course so wax build up wont be an issue again.
Tankers would be secured to transport the increased production, its a basic logistics planning action.
The Weather impacts on the field were acute - worst weather in decades, but the low production was the main issue as when wells went off line it caused a cash flow problem- this wont be the case for Winter 2023-2024 as the production base and revenue will be much higher, perhaps 4-6 times that of the lowest to date by year end - Junes prod plus CC wells will establish the trend line to better estimate going forward.
Another positive is Cole Creek and the recompletions wells production following stimulation - its implied the approach to this is being agreed with the JVP as its a very useful field performance benchmark for them, what may be expected following the drilling campaign based on known vertical well vs H well performance ratios.
On Drilling campaign - none to date as cash flow issues, but as profit range reached, field stabilises then COPL could drill as planned.
Assume 4000 bopd reached by year end for argument , equates to $4m a month net profit after all costs, on this basis one H well in Jan possible at average $4-5m per well, depending on laterals approach.
Copl estimate each H well may produce 1000-3000 bpd for first 18 months, with stimulation longer, so profits form each well go towards the next drill and so it scales.
If your AM its less about delineation and more about quickest and lowest risk to gain high production - as outlined in his choice of well locations for the initial three drills planned with focus on CC and 100% WI as in presentation on the website.
Once a JV materialises, then its down to the Major - either way profit and growth are coming for COPL.
This is why the JV deal is much more likely to happen soon as Frontier 1 flows at CC:
"The CC well has been perforated with oil inflow observed on perforation. The Company is evaluating options for stimulation of the perforations, and the timing of these, in conjunction with its JV discussions."
Meaning JV discussions are based around the stimulation of Frontier 1 from CC wells - this could be occurring at any time with flow directly benefitting production totals
Perhaps the end of the year for RBL, but it may not be needed.
To not secure the biggest find in decades onshore deal is going to be somewhat career limiting for the JVP negotiator, imagine he is under pressure to conclude the deal as the alternative is to leave it for the opposition if AM walks due to a negotiating impasse.