Member Info for Thronegames

you are optimistic on the £3, robleo!

JDCBC I totally agree with the correlation to the Nat gas price -"irrelevant" in reality asyou say due to DEC's hedging strategy. I have a relatively large holding but not my largest. LGEN is my biggest holding. Less volatile than DEC and pays a large dividend though unevenly distributed throughout the year. One thing that bothers me about DEC at the current
share price is that the BOD may decide that the current dividend is simply too high. This thought is niggling me! But yes, I will reinvest dividends from DEC and from elsewhere into DEC at 95p. If we get to 1.25, I'll prob sell half of my holding.

zac_04 Thanks for taking the time to perform that analysis. LGEN is now my biggest individual holding. I have unit funds but I'm getting sick of them. What I like about LGEN is what seems to be a guaranteed return via yield. Also the SP is on the low side of average so is likely to have upside. My last purchase was at 2.33 a few weeks ago.

Nick and Phyl. Hi, my plan is to hold LGEN until later in the year. Of course it will get the usual ex div drop. If it's around 2.50 in August then I will sell half and rotate into IMB which has the heavier dividends paid from Sept.

Yes I also added substantially at 2.33 this morning. Time will tell whether or not I've been foolish. I am now over-exposed to this share.

This morning I looked at the dreadful state of the market and decided against re-purchasing IMB. I chose LGEN instead as it seems to have been hammered harder and for no good reason. Plus has a hefty divided going ex next month. I can see myself rotating back to IMB later in the year for the two outsize dividends. I still hold a lot of IMB; it's rewarded me well over the last few years.

Crossley, to answer your question: not really. I pay 15% tax on dividends in Ireland with W8BEN on file. It's a minor consideration for me. Can you expand a little on your question?

Well, if anyone looks at how annual inflation is calculated - CPI - it is obvious that the price index will continue to fall for the rest of the year. So the Fed has to be at the top of the interest raising cycle. I personally look at the oil price as a barometer. When the Fed begins to ease rates, US markets will soar and this will also lift the FTSE, in which LGEN is a bellwether indicator. The UK has a different problem as they have to pay higher wages to labour. They can't even find the staff to host a wedding at 'Downton Abbey'. So input costs apart from oil and gas are rising in the UK due to Brexit. UK inflation may remain high for this reason for the remainder of the year. This is my armchair economic logic. (I do have a basic degree in Economics) . And it leads me towards switching some funds from FTSE to North American stocks.. Just an opinion! Everyone wants to say "I told you so!"

Stupidly, I do not leave cash in my stockbroking account for long enough to take advantage of mini crises such as this one. I'm almost always fully invested and I realise this is a mistake. I will now try to change my strategy to always have 20% available in cash. That's easier said than done though!

Well I think that the market drop is due to Powell being too hawkish and the collapse of the SV Bank in the U.S. re-igniting fear. Low China GDP projection is also hitting my resource stocks. I see LGEN as a bellwether of how the FTSE performs. Please bear in mind that I really don't have a clue and I am extrapolating based on past experience. Here is what I think will happen next week:
- After a weak open on Monday the FTSE will rally throughout the week as the bank collapse is viewed as isolated incident and not systemic.
- Powell will get a couple of nasty phone calls and the Fed will say that he sees inflation under control by Q3. BECAUSE: The Fed do not want a bear stock market.
- China will release some new data that seems to support a GDP projection of >5% BECAUSE: While China does not want its stock market to be prostituted to Western capitalist pigs, neither does it want its stock market undervalued by these pigs.
- SVB collapse will be forgotten by the FTSE.

I hope I am right but I could be wrong. If the SVB debacle spreads to other banks then we are in for trouble. But I doubt that will happen after the safeguards put in place by 2010. Just my opinion. Let's see what happens! I think bank solvency will be the first hurdle that must be crossed on Monday.

Stockready, thanks we all should have listened to your wisdom weeks ago.

Alas, can you tell us what share will bring your son "very high growth"?

Bear in mind that LGEN has recently acquired a "significant" minority shareholding in another enterprise. I am not familiar with this. But it could be of importance. Any comments?

Yes AIMoil, 300p will not surprise me. The dilemma for me will be to hold or sell at that price. I've been here for a few years.

Good trading, Trek. I watch your posts here! I had bought more at £1 and at 1.05 before xdiv. At around 12% yield after tax (for me), I am tempted to buy again but I'm held back by fear of over-exposure to one share. Also weaker gas price coming into summer might be a factor. I have some powder left but I think I'll keep it dry!

Hang Seng Index up 4% today on best increase in factory activity in a long time. RIO also up 4% this morning. I had a look at comparative charts for Hang Seng and RIO over 3 months, 6 months and a year and there appears to be a strong correlation. This does not apply over 5 years, however I am persuaded that RIO will track China's fortunes in the near term.

MJackson, thanks for sharing your insights. Having considered everything, including Trek's sell, I am still mystified and I conclude that the sell-off may be irrational. I'm very disappointed at the decision of the company to issue new shares, but £1 is a good price and I have just there added 3k shares at that price. I agree that the SP does seem to follow the trend of the gas price -irrational given hedging. 14% yield for this company also makes no rational sense. I have decided to take an optimistic view. I think it would be a cruel cut for DEC to reduce the dividend on top of the dilution. Surely the company is aware of damage already done to PI's.

A very dire prediction there from driftking. Does anyone here have a more upbeat outlook?!!

Well, as per my last post, that was a mistake! I could be waiting a long time to get back in sub 19.80!!!

Hi Gavster, you say "the quarterly dividends are safe as can be". Current yield is at 14% and if, as you speculate, the SP drops to the 90's, the yield will be maybe 18%. That doesn't seem feasible. I'm surprised that the SP has dipped slightly below the placing price. Am I missing something?