Member Info for Thronegames

Yes it's cost push and not 'demand pull' inflation. Both the FED and BOE are chasing the wrong problem.

stewart81, nail on head. The monetary policy tool of raising interest rates is a classic macroeconomic response to inflation. The theory is that it dampens demand by discouraging borrowing by individuals and companies. But this round of inflation is a supply side problem and has nothing to do with demand. Higher input costs of energy being the biggest driver along with other disruptions to the supply chain that I don't fully understand. Then Truss comes along trying to do the opposite to the Central Bank by putting more money in people's pockets. I have a bog standard degree in Economics from years ago and I have never seen such a crazy set of economic interventions where monetary and fiscal policies operate in opposite directions. It would also concern me that Truss was allowed to get away with this by people who are much more qualified to make economic decisions - the senior civil servants who advise her. Inflation will be back down by next April; it's clear if you look at how the CPI is calculated.

....to get me into profit. Surprised to see house prices still rising, last week they were falling. UK is a mess of contradictions at the moment, though Hunt has taken a firm stance on dealing with the mess.

Yes 5555, the range of responses available is ridiculous; it is "recommend" or "report" (pretty extreme - I've done it twice in 10 years!).

Porsche, I think your post was nothing more than unsupported fear-mongering. Comparing LGEN's situation to the sub-prime catastrophe in 2008 is irresponsible. While it's great that small PI's like me can discuss our investments here, It is a disgrace that people can post on message boards like this with the effect of instilling fear into the message board community. I don't deny your right to express your opinion here. Just be careful to support wild generalisations with some data. From what I've read, LGEN has a robust financial situation. I would report your post but I think you are entitled to express an opinion. Please support with facts rather than opinion based on wild conjecture.

Yes Trek, I used dividend payments from elsewhere to top up at 1.30 today. The dividend is just too attractive to ignore; especially with dollar strength. I have a tranche from a couple of years ago at 1.13.

Trek, I always read your posts with interest. My humble opinion is that the SP at 1.35 is driven by "sentiment" as you suggest, rather than the buyback. Also in my humble opinion it has been driven by the gas price. Of course we know that DEC hedge and that there is no reason to DIRECTLY connect the current price of Henry Hub gas with DEC share price. Yet the correlation persists. I believe that perception of future value and, as you say "sentiment" are the key drivers of the SP.

Some very dubious rationale being bandied about here on the benefits of buybacks for shareholders. For starters, buybacks do NOT automatically result in increased dividends. The company decides annually on what dividend it will pay on their dividend declaration date, regardless of the number of shares in circulation.

You would think that a reduction in the amount of shares available with the same demand for the shares should lead to an increase in the SP, but I have never seen that happen in my 20 years or so investing. Personally I hate to hear about buybacks and would prefer extra cash be used to defray debt or to grow through acquisitions. One thing that buybacks do achieve automatically is an increase in Earnings Per Share. Same earnings, less shares. This benefits senior management as EPS is a key metric on which their performance is measured. If buybacks continued for a long enough period of time of course it would result in an increase in SP.

I am very sceptical and cynical about the benefits to shareholders of buybacks in the medium term. If DEC buy back a billion dollars of shares for the next 3 years, in my experience I will not be any wealthier. I've seen it with Apple. I've seen it with BP and others. I'm not sorry for the rant. It's over now!

Porsche you are being very pessimistic. My understanding is that MNG have a similar business model to Legal and General who issued a reassuring positive update this morning re. their "robust" capital position. Correct me if I'm wrong in that assumption or if you have the basis for a different opinion. In fact the SP jump today was probably on the back of the LGEN update.

bald_eagle thanks for your contribution. I particularly appreciate your honesty in that last sentence of your post. It's refreshing when many others on message boards resort to attack or defence or are downright opinionated!

AbjectPerformer, you seem to have some conviction about DLG in particular. Why? For example are you assuming that next year's dividend will be the same as the 2022 current 12% divi? I'm not disagreeing, just seeking friendly opinions!

I'm in DLG for the yield, also MNG And LGEN. I understand the motive for being invested in these shares and it it so disappointing when the SP tanks. There are two other shares I hold with high yields, DEC and IMB. The SP of each of these has traded in a narrower range of late and the yield on both of them is well above 10%. Not only that but the yield on DEC has strengthened because the divi is paid in dollar which is at a record high against the GBP. DEC is in the business of gas production. Now there is an open secret about IMB which I will share: The yield is quoted as approx 7.7% at the current SP (ref dividendmax website at 2/10). However IMB pay double the amount of dividend in Dec and March so if you are invested for the next six months is 50% greater than the % yield quoted. Before anyone says I am 'ramping', let me have a good laugh and remind you that it is highly unlikely that my opinion on a message board, written from the backyard of the backwoods is unlikely to influence the direction of the SP of any FTSE 250 company! I am posting this to share my experience with fellow dividend seekers. By the way LGEN has been great for me too and I did top up in the last few days and believe it will recover in the new year. I see IMB as a great divi play given above, depending on your timeframe. My opinion only.

DenFos you picked up at a great price. IMO it will be into next year's dividend season before we see a significant uplift in SP. I'm nursing an 18% loss on SP. Too lazy to calculate my loss if I include divis. I'll hold for the next year and see what happens. It had already been hammered when I bought early in the year.

Icandc, I am exactly in the same position. I held very little cash for bottom fishing. It's a lesson learned. When things stabilise, I have decided that I will keep around 25% of my portfolio in cash for 'opportunities' like this. The problem is that I don't know where the bottom is and can easily lose more money on paper. I topped up at 221 and 216 in the last 2 days and I'm losing money on paper. Confidence in the UK economy seems to be in a downward spiral. Just as well I'm here for the long term and don't need my money for a few years.

I added yesterday at 2.21 and today at 2.19 (gosh I could have done so much better!). Even through the pandemic this was one of the few companies that continued paying dividends and recovered quickly after the drop. LGEN has been a solid performer for me. It is now my largest single holding. I am not recommending that anyone else does the same thing. But over the last 4 years or so, it has always recovered. I know it will be well into next year by the time I see profit on my investment. I am resident in Ireland so the sterling drop adds to the attraction. Just sharing my personal experience.

I'm in Europe. So bought in again at 12.60ish based on market pessimism re sterling and PSN reflected in SP and sterling. Might be wrong again but bought at a perceived low for UK. May be further depths to plumb. Do not envy me; I sold at a big loss at 16.50 ish.

I see Friday's fall in sterling and FTSE 100 as a vote of NO confidence by the market in the UK economy. I have a bog standard pass degree in Economics and even I know that deflationary monetary policy by B. of E. is a complete contradiction to Truss's inflationary fiscal policy. Maybe I have to back and do a refresher course in Macroeconomics 101.

Dodgy-knee, I totally get that but it's difficult to explain that to consumers who are baying for blood! Saying; "It's just the way the business works" just won't cut it! Theoretically, they could and perhaps even should pass on some of the excess profit to consumers. I have no agenda here, just thinking it through. After the windfall tax on BP etc., it seems logical to do the same to Centrica.

Thanks markshaw. How can they justify then increasing prices for the consumer, given popular and political furore?

Can anyone here explain how CNA are making supernormal profits even when they are paying top dollar for gas? Not invested her; I know little about the company.