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With the granting of the full ML due in the next 7 days (assuming DAERA are true to their word of this timescale), I'm thinking out loud here and wondering what this might do to the current share price ?
It would be very easy to assume that we can expect quite a rise in the share price, but then again, if it was as easy to predict of this being the case, then wouldn't we all be piling in with more purchases ? An automatic price rise on the full ML isn't inevitable in my eyes. . . and I'll explain my thinking.
The granting of ML was conditional on Harl accepting the conditions of the licence, and JW has subsequently said :-
'Having reviewed these conditions, the Company is satisfied that it can successfully meet the conditions and ongoing obligations and has, therefore, informed DAERA of such acceptance'.
With JW accepting these conditions, we're now obviously just waiting for this granting of the full ML.
Now with all the previous humming and ha-ing of will we get the ML, will it be declined, etc, I imagine JW was delighted (like us shareholders) that it was actually eventually granted, even with conditions. Here's the concern i have though. What are those conditions ? ? ?
My thoughts are that when we know these actual conditions, then these will greatly determine what happens the shorter term share price. If these conditions aren't too onerous or costly, then I'm expecting a very positive bounce up. If these conditions involve a great deal of expense or time delays in completion of the project (ie with slower brine dispersion timescales) then any bounce might be fairly mundane in the shorter term.
I'm not being negative here but just trying to manage my shorter term expectations of the share price. Obviously with me remaining in this stock and having increased my holding several times in the last few months I'm very positive on the longer term prospects here. I'm actually more positive than any time i have been since coming onboard the good ship Infa (now Harl).
Here's hoping those 'conditions' aren't too much and we good a good jump up in price.
.... ... ...
On a different subject and referring to today's RNS of interim results, I'm pleased that there has been no big negative reaction to these. I really did think we might have seen a fall back on release of these, but then again, what would i know, lol.
That's we all need to do our own research and invest / dis-invest as we see fit ourselves with our own knowledge and with our own hunches, and no-one elses. My hunch feels like a very good one at the mo.
Good luck all.
Hi Roly. Re your 15.06 post.
Yep, that was me that suggested some speculative fun asking for everyones' share price prediction back in September when there was 100 days to Christmas. I said I'd post everyone's predictions on Christmas Eve. There were just over 20 predictions made and the prize was a big virtual high 5 to the winner from all the losing participants, lol.
The share price when I asked for everyone's predictions was 18.75. My prediction for 24th December was 28.50.
To answer your question, can you change your prediction ? No !
If I can't change mine, you can't change yours, lol.
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If I could change mine though, I think I'd double it.
Stena Superfast VII is now berthed at the Ship Repair Quay (SRQ) in Belfast.
Seatruck Progress is in dry dock in the Belfast Dry Dock (BDD)
Dorset Spirit is in dry dock in the Belfast Building Dock (BBD)
It's great to see all 3 of the H & W Belfast docks being utilised simultaneously. Here's to seeing more of that in future, and particularly with some MOD boats in too, (no offence to SKA fans. If requested, we'll take your ships too).
I see on the Belfast Harbour bookings page that Stena Superfast VII is coming to H & W this week.
It's only a short visit to the SRQ on Tuesday morning coming and leaving again that evening.
https://booking.belfast-harbour.co.uk/
It's possible there might be a bit more meat on the bones re the ML tomorrow morning.
In the N Ireland Assembly (@ 9.20) the department minister Mr Poots will be discussing the Green Growth Strategy and will be joined by several DAERA officials for this discussion.
I would expect this ML decision to be discussed as it certainly is big news here in N Ireland this morning. The radio stations and local TV stations have all been referring to it with some of them going into quite some detail re employment opportunities from it, greater security of gas supplies, etc.
As for the (at time of writing) share price rise today of around 26%, it's good to see, but I'm not getting excited about it. My personal thoughts are that the excitement and big rises are still to come when the big boys with deep pockets come out to play in the park, and when they want to play with our ball too.
These 'big boys' are the companies such as Vitol, that JW has already had discussions with, but there other big hitters that will now sit up and take heed of this ML, and will be seeing opportunities themselves to chat with Harl. With the recent furore around all things energy related, prices, supply concerns, etc, there will most certainly be more companies seeing opportunities in this. Harl getting this ML at this time could not have came at a better time.
Finally, credit to JW and team for getting this ML over the line, but an even bigger task now is getting the negotiations right to maximize this opportunity from Islandmagee.
I've every confidence we have an experienced captain, and also the correct crew to do just that.
Ed's diary link below :-
http://aims.niassembly.gov.uk/assemblybusiness/businessdiary.aspx
Stokey. I've found this on the Maritime Journal website and it's from mid August time. Re your question on deck strengthening, this article states 'The ship is currently being prepared to sail to the UK where the deck will be strengthened and fitted with a prefabricated mezzanine deck; a heave compensated A-frame with intelligent Launch and Recovery System'.
Maybe the guys at Appledore are working on the pre fab mezzanine as we speak ?
https://www.maritimejournal.com/news101/vessel-build-and-maintenance/vessel-repair-and-maintenance/right-sized-vessel-for-marine-renewables-duties
I see on the belfast Harbour website that Seatruck Progress is due into the SRQ on Sunday and then into dry dock on Monday.
With European Causeway just out of dry dock it's good to see another vessel straight in.
Cheers for the detail here OT.
With that connection I'm wondering if you're up there in Arnish yourself OT, working on those jackets as we speak ?
If you are, get back to work man (or woman), your tea break is over, lol !
You're correct ban, Saipem did provide the steel and it's delivery. Can we then assume that the 26M contract is simply then just for the Harl contract ? I don't know myself ?
If the published contract value of 26M has a steel and delivery cost (albeit paid by Saipem) of say 8M, then this is an 18M contract to Harl.
WiseInv23. I'm also curious what the profit margin might be on this 26M contract, and what the expected timescale is for the contract completion. That timescale would give us an idea of what the monthly payments might be from it.
I'm also wondering is this 26M value, the actual value of the contract to Harl, or is this the value of the total Saipem contract, including the price of the steel and it's delivery (which Saipem are supplying for the contract )?
If it's a 26M contract to Harl (net of the steel cost), this is even better as there is obviously quite a few million pound of steel going into this project and hopefully it's not priced into this 26M amount. Hope that makes sense.
Sorry. Here's the other link below
https://afloat.ie/resources/irish-ports/shipyards/item/47131-plans-to-raise-9m-by-owners-of-harland-wolff-where-cruise-trio-occupy-belfast-shipyard
Stokey. If you look at the link below and the dockyard plan, the gate you're looking at in your photo is at the narrow end of No 6 in the dockyard plan.
https://www.harland-wolff.com/facilities/belfast/
The cranes you're referring to in your photo are the Henson cranes used with the BDD (the smaller of the 2 dry docks, the one where European Causeway is in at the moment).
The link below shows the aerial view of this (from when the 3 Vikings were in) and you can see these 3 cranes in the Belfast Dry Dock.
After seeing the 7am RNS I was keen to see if there was any market reaction to this.
None, zero, nil, zilch is the reaction this morning so far !
It therefore appears that there is no great concerns about the chairman change from the II's. I'm watching in anticipation as to who the next chairman might be. Here's a good opportunity to appoint a pro active industry known individual with city connections and a bat that can hit a few bigger contract balls from the tenders being bowled at the minute.
I'm also wondering will the II's have much influence on who this new chairman might be ? ?
I'd also like to see any new chairman (and a few more of the Harl white collar folk) get a bit more skin in the game. I always, and particularly with AIM stocks, like to see that the big wigs have confidence to pop a few shekels of their salary into their own company shares. Depending on the amounts, there's no bigger demonstration of confidence than this.
Hi folks. Re Dorset Spirit. This vessel isn't owned by Teekay but by a company called Altera infrastructure. www.alterainfra.com .This company was once part of Teekay but is now a separate entity from them.
They own and operate 25+ tankers (some massive ones too) as well as other vessels and tugs.
Have a look at their website and the fleet they have. This is a fantastic new customer particularly with the size and tonnage of some of the vessels they operate.
https://www.alterainfra.com/who-we-are/our-fleet
We've had 13 price predictions (for 24/12/2021) so far from posters here ranging from 15p to 95p, with an average price of 51.3p per share so far.
Hopefully we might get quite a few more in this evening and over the weekend to give an even bigger picture of the sentiment held on where the share price is or could be after the next 3 months for INFA/HARL.
Keep posting your figures folks to get an even bigger picture of our combined thoughts.
Cheers
TTNY
Over here in Norn Iron we'd call boyos like you chancers Mr Dawski.
You're bending the rules already with 2 guesses and the competition is only started ! I'm going to let you off though with having 2 guesses and it's only for the reason that I know you'd really love to get the winners certificate.
Good luck, but do consider this a yellow card for an attempted rule break !
(If however either of your amounts prove to be correct then I'll happily forgive you and remove the yellow card caution from your good name)
Away from all things sensible what about some fun here with the Infa Share Price Prediction game ?
Obviously there appears to be a lot going on at the minute in the industries Infa (or should i be starting to say H & W Holdings) are involved with. We're seeing share price volatility, an increased number of daily trades, a lot more social media posts and updates, etc.
Now. There's 100 days left now to Christmas Day, (yep, sad that i Googled that) with the UK Stockmarket closing on 24th December @12.30pm.
Here's my idea.
What's everyones' share price prediction on closing on 24/12/2021 for the Infa share price ? ? ?
If enough folk, say 20+, post their prediction of what they envisage the share price will be, I'll pop a post on over the few days over Christmas showing what these predictions were, and let's see who gets the closest !
This wee game is open to rampers, de-rampers, optimists, pessimists, trolls, H & W staff, Bab..k staff, DAERA staff, Edwin, Boris, Johns, Aruns and basically anyone with digits on their keyboard who wants to play.
I'm hoping to see a lot of us regular posters pop a figure on here, and also if you've never posted on this board before here's a great opportinity to break yer duck. Go wan, go wan, go wan, I dare ya , lol
If you wanna play, just can pop the text on this thread of ' my Infa share price prediction on 24/12/2021 is (amount).
I'll start it off.
My Infa share price prediction on 24/12/2021 is 28.50p
(Oh, and the prize by the way is a certificate saying 'I wuz rite, told yas so' ! - (The certificate being produced and printed by the winner for themselves and you'll also get a big virtual high 5 from the rest of us, smug and all as you'll probably be, lol).
For clarity, I should add to that Stokey that there's nowhere else other than the H & W dry docks that it could dry dock in Belfast.
This would be a big beast to have in if it's coming our way. Anyone else here have any knowleledge or contacts to clarify if it is actually coming to H & W ?
Stokey. There's plenty of docks a 280M vessel could park up in Belfast Harbour. Royal Caribbean's cruise ship Anthem of the Seas is a regular visitor in Belfast recently at well over 300M, as well as many other cruise ship visitors of size.
Now if the question is there anywhere else in Belfast a vessel this size could dry dock, it's a definite no way, not a chance !
Stokey. Looking at some of the shipping traffic websites the only large vessel i can see heading from Canada to Belfast is the massive 280 metre crude carrier, Dorset Spirit.
I've no idea though if this s the one being referred or what the nature of it's visit to Belfast is.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5412921/mmsi:316036463/imo:9780782/vessel:DORSET_SPIRIT